There were a number of big upsets in college football on Saturday that not only shook up the College Football Playoff picture, but the Heisman Trophy race as well.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was the favorite to win the award until the Crimson Tide lost at Vanderbilt. Now, it’s Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty in the top spot with +200 odds on BetMGM.
Can the electric ball carrier hang onto the top spot?
Jeanty has two things going against him in the Heisman race: he doesn’t play quarterback and he isn’t playing for a power-conference program. The Heisman has been dominated by quarterbacks in recent years with just four non-quarterbacks winning since 2000. What is in his favor is that no quarterbacks have truly stood out so far this season. That and the fact that he is a human-highlight reel earning comparisons to Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Jeanty already has over 1,000 rushing yards and has sat out the second half in two games so far. He is almost 300 yards clear of the next leading rusher in the country.
ASHTON JEANTY’S FIRST CARRY TODAY 🔥 @BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/utOfPL02gv
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2024
In 1988, Sanders won the Heisman while rushing for 2,628 yards and 37 touchdowns. In 2000, Tomlinson rushed for 2,158 yards and 22 touchdowns, but finished fourth in the voting behind three quarterbacks. Tomlinson may be a better comp from a Heisman perspective because his TCU team was in the WAC at the time, similar to Jeanty’s Boise State residing in the Mountain West.
Jeanty is going to have to put up massive numbers and likely will need some help from the contending quarterbacks not standing out. It sure looks like he’s going to take care of the massive numbers part.
The top contender to win the prestigious award after Jeanty is Colorado’s Travis Hunter. With upsets all over the place, Hunter saw his Heisman stock surge without even playing. The two-way standout is now listed at +300.
It’s not hard to argue that Hunter is the best player in college football, but will he be able to stand out enough as a cornerback and wide receiver on a Colorado team that is likely to lose a chunk of games? The Buffaloes are 4-1 and host a ranked Kansas State team on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Can Hunter win the Heisman if Colorado finishes the season, say, 7-5?
2024 Heisman Trophy odds
After Jeanty and Hunter, it’s all quarterbacks in the next 10 spots, per the BetMGM betting board. Miami’s Cam Ward leads that group at +500. Ward has Miami undefeated, although it has not been clear sailing for the Hurricanes. After nearly losing on a Hail Mary against Virginia Tech, the U needed to come back from 25 points down against Cal on Saturday. Ward leads the country with 2,219 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes.
Milroe fell from the top spot in the odds with Alabama’s loss, but is still fourth at +1100. If Alabama proves the Vanderbilt loss was a blip and not a sign of more losses to come, Milroe will likely remain in contention for the award.
There are two quarterbacks worth watching this week because they are in big games: Texas’ Quinn Ewers (+2000) and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (+1400). Ewers hasn’t played since getting hurt in Week 3, but could return this week against Oklahoma. With the Longhorns ranked No. 1, Ewers has a chance to emerge as a contender with a good showing against a rival. Missing two games will hurt Ewers’ end-of-year numbers, but that could be forgiven if he is the star quarterback of the best team in the country come December.
For Gabriel, a big game against Ohio State on Saturday could propel him to the top of the list. Oregon hasn’t played a top-tier opponent yet, with respect to Jeanty’s Boise State, so this will be the Ducks’ first game on the big stage this season. Gabriel has had a solid start to the season, but has thrown three interceptions over the last two games.
On the other side of that big game, Ohio State freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith actually has the shortest odds of any Buckeyes player at +5000. Quarterback Will Howard is +8000.
Is Milroe now a value bet?
As much as I’m a fan of Ashton Jeanty and Travis Hunter, I’m not going to pay a premium price for a Group of 5 and a possible non-Playoff contender Heisman winner. Heisman Trophy’s are won in the second half of the season and we know how quarterbacks dominate the voting process. So I’m going to buy low on last week’s favorite Jalen Milroe.
Despite the loss to Vandy, Milroe was quite good. A tipped pick-six made his numbers look worse and the state of Alabama’s defense gives me hope that Milroe will continue to pile up the numbers.
My projections have Alabama making the Playoff as well as winning 10 games. That is good enough for me to take a shot on him at +1100.
(Photo of Ashton Jeanty: Loren Orr / Getty Images)
