The torch has clearly been passed in the tennis world to a new generation of stars, and there seems to be more parity at the top of the sport than during the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic era, but that doesn’t mean defending champions aren’t still entering Grand Slams as favorites. With the Australian Open draw out and the tournament beginning this weekend, defending singles champions Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka entered the tournament as favorites to repeat as winners.
Play in Melbourne begins on Sunday in Australia (Saturday night in the U.S.). American Sloane Stephens takes on Sabalenka in Day 1 first-round action.
Women’s singles odds
Sabalenka isn’t a clear favorite. She is +225 on BetMGM to win in Melbourne for the third straight time. Long gone are the days when Sabalenka had the serve yips and inconsistent performances, which held back her elite shot-making ability. The Belarusian has won three Slams in the past two years and has been a model of consistency. Outside of not competing in Wimbledon last year due to injury, Sabalenka has made at least the quarterfinals in her last eight Grand Slam appearances and made the semifinals seven times in that span.
Last year, Sabalenka became the first back-to-back winner in over a decade. She has a chance to become the first to win three Aussie Opens in a row since Martina Hingis from 1997-99.
There are no surprises in the names behind the World No. 1. Coco Gauff, the only person to knock off Sabalenka on hard court in a Slam in the past two years when she took her out in three sets in the 2023 U.S. Open final, is second in the odds at +400. The American, who is somehow still only 20 years old, hasn’t been as consistent as Sabalenka. She made the semis in Australia (losing to Sabalenka) and at the French Open last year (losing to eventual champion Iga Swiatek) but was knocked out in the fourth round at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
Speaking of Swiatek, the Polish star is +450 to win the tournament but has only made it to the quarterfinals once in Melbourne. She does have a U.S. Open win on her resume, which came in 2022, so she has won on hard court, but it’s clearly not her preferred surface. When the French Open rolls around, she will be heavily favored as a four-time champion at the age of 23, but when it’s off clay, Sabalenka and Gauff are valued more highly in the odds.
Elena Rybakina, the 2023 runner-up, is +900 to win it, followed by Zheng Qinwen, last year’s runner-up, at +1400.
Men’s singles odds
Sinner is more heavily favored as the favorite on the men’s side. He is nearly even money at +120. The Italian did win the two hard-court Grand Slams in 2024. He did so in mostly dominant fashion, dropping three sets in Melbourne and just two in New York en route to those titles. Sinner, the World No. 1, made it to the quarterfinals of all four Slams in 2024.
Carlos Alcaraz (+350) won the other two Grand Slams last year, but Melbourne is the one Slam he hasn’t won yet. He made the quarterfinals last year, which was his first time making it past the third round. Alcaraz went out in the second round in the U.S. Open in the fall. This is the Spaniard’s first chance at winning the career Grand Slam, an absurd thing to have a chance to accomplish at 21 years old. If Alcaraz wins in Melbourne, he would become the youngest to ever complete the feat.
Novak Djokovic is still listed among the favorites, coming in third in the odds at +550. This past year was the first that saw Djokovic fail to win a Grand Slam since 2017. He did win the Olympics and still made the Wimbledon final and the semifinals in Melbourne. The 37-year-old is ranked No. 7 in the world but is still viewed as a major threat in any tournament he enters. Djokovic has a staggering 10 Australian Open titles, the most recent of which came in 2023.
Alexander Zverev (+1000) and Daniil Medvedev (+1600), who had a two-set lead on Sinner in last year’s final, are viewed as contenders as well. Zverev is still searching for his first Grand Slam title, while Medvedev has lost four finals since winning the 2021 U.S. Open. American Taylor Fritz (+2800) is sixth in the odds.
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(Photo of Aryna Sabalenka: William West / AFP via Getty Images)
