By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
In a different timeline — one in which Jack Hughes stays healthy and Mikko Rantanen stays in Carolina — this matchup would’ve been a heavyweight tilt.
That’s not the timeline we live in, unfortunately, but we should still get a pretty strong battle between two teams that represent the future of the Metropolitan Division. In this year’s edition, the Hurricanes have the decided edge.
The odds
The Hurricanes are one of the heavier opening-round favorites with a better than two-to-one chance of besting the Devils.
That large margin of victory is partly a result of the injury mess New Jersey is dealing with, but the Devils would still be underdogs even with Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler in the lineup. Their absence gives the Hurricanes an extra 10 percentage points of win probability, which is not enough to cover the current gap between the two teams.
The Hurricanes haven’t lost in the first round since 2020, their only opening-round loss in the Rod Brind’Amour era. It’s unlikely that changes this year.
The numbers
Year after year, the Hurricanes are one of the best five-on-five teams in the league. It’s a credit to the system that is more than just team tactics — it’s a core part of this group’s identity.
No one pours shots like the Canes or limits their opponents’ attempts. The forecheck remains a driving force behind that. But this year, it’s not the only part of their attack. Carolina has sprinkled in more rush shots to boost its expected goal rate to a league-high 3.06 per 60.
Despite the Hurricanes’ elite shot suppression, their expected goal limitation isn’t as stout. This is where the Devils gain a slight edge at five-on-five, which could help counter an offense that is only slightly above average league-wide. Unlike the last time these two met in the playoffs in 2023, the Devils have more balance to their attack. The rush is still a strength, but now so is their forecheck, which is key in a playoff environment.
The common thread between these teams offensively is that both struggle to convert on their chances at five-on-five. The difference is that the Devils have a red-hot power play to help make up for it, while the Canes struggle to score on the advantage.
But the special teams edge shifts to the Hurricanes on the other end of the ice. The Canes run a disruptive penalty kill that has been especially stingy since the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Devils’ short-handed play was fine most of the season but has been a bit leakier down the stretch.
The big question
Who will step up in the absence of Jack Hughes?
There’s no replacing Hughes. Might as well get that out of the way up top. He might not have been at his absolute best at the time of his season-ending shoulder surgery, but he was still ninth in the NHL with 70 points and had started showing real signs of two-way improvement under Sheldon Keefe, with an expected goals percentage of about 57. GM Tom Fitzgerald added at the deadline, but only around the margins. There was no high-end first-line center to be had; Fitzgerald was wise not to force it.
For the short term, though, that leaves New Jersey with a gaping hole at the top of the lineup. We’ve seen it over the last month, too — while they deserve credit for staying afloat, they’ve also been dramatically out-scored and out-chanced at five-on-five in Hughes’ absence. That, more than anything else, is what makes them a major underdog heading into this series. Take away any team’s best offensive player and, odds are, you’ll get something similar.
Through it all, the Devils have continued to get strong production from the rest of their core; Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are both producing more than a point per game overall since March 3, and Timo Meier’s goal-scoring rate has jumped from 0.9 per 60 to about 1.6 per 60. Expecting much more than that would be unfair. Most of that work has come on the power play, where the Devils are a top-10 team in goals (actual and expected) even without Hughes.
It’s worth noting, though, that their effectiveness at five-on-five has tumbled; with each of them on the ice when Hughes was in the mix, New Jersey could count on an expected goals/60 well over 3.0. Now, they’re all in the 2s; Bratt specifically has gone from 3.24 to 2.47. Team-wide, they’re either at or near the bottom of every important five-on-five category since March 3. If they’re going to have a chance, that’ll have to change.
Of course, the most obvious potential pivot point is the play of Dawson Mercer. He’s been good in the past — that 56-point season in 2022-23 as a 22-year-old counts for something — but they’ve gotten nearly nothing from him since Hughes’ injury. The thought, in some spots, was that he’d run with another opportunity at top-six minutes, and it hasn’t come close to panning out. He’s putting up 1.3 points per 60 since March 3, which is 15th on the team; he’s got just one five-on-five goal; the Devils are getting outscored 10-5 with him on the ice; among their forwards, only fourth-liner Curtis Lazar is on the ice for a lower shot-share percentage. We could continue, but it’d feel like overkill.
The Devils’ best hope here, cliche as it sounds, is to hope that the power play continues to cook, that Luke Hughes and the return of Dougie Hamilton kickstart things for the offense from the back end, and that Jacob Markstrom steals a game or three. We’ve seen stranger things. Don’t hold your breath, though.
The X-factor
Can Logan Stankoven be a reliable secondary source of offense?
Some fits just make sense. When it became clear that Mikko Rantanen wasn’t long for Raleigh, that Carolina would be best served by cutting its losses, and that Dallas was interested, Stankoven as the primary return felt almost inevitable. An undersized-but-tenacious chance machine? Rod Brind’Amour says, “Yes, please.”
So far, Stankoven — still a rookie, by the way — has fit the bill in more ways than one. He is indeed a chance machine, putting up 1.18 expected goals /60 with the Canes. For comparison, Rantanen was at 1.15, and the only players who did better over the course of a full season are Auston Matthews and Zach Hyman. Beyond that, Stankoven’s 18.6 shot attempts per 60 are up there with Seth Jarvis (another undersized-but-tenacious chance machine) among Carolina’s leaders.
The issue, as it is so often with the Hurricanes, is that Stankoven hasn’t quite been able to capitalize on all those opportunities; 0.85 goals/60 at five-on-five is really good, but not great. Carolina would no doubt like to see Stankoven extend his recent hot streak. The process is sound, and they’re fourth in the NHL in five-on-five goals/60 since the deadline, but more goals is always better.
The rosters
Stankoven has all the tools to be a perfect fit for the Hurricanes in the long run. So does Seth Jarvis; he’s just a few steps ahead of his new teammate.
Jarvis’ role and responsibility have increased over the last couple of seasons, and so has his production to match. He is tasked with matching up to some of the toughest offensive competition in the league this year and has earned one of the best Defensive Ratings of any forward this season in the process. And that hasn’t weighed down his offense, either — his scoring is on the rise, and so is his puck-moving ability. That has shined on a top line with Sebastian Aho and Jackson Blake. The Canes are driving play with this trio deployed with a 67 percent expected goal rate and a 13-5 scoring edge in their minutes.
Carolina tends to split matchup minutes between Jarvis and Aho on the top line and Jordan Staal on the third. Against a Jack Hughes-less Devils team, Staal (and potentially Stankoven and Jordan Martinook, depending on how the lines shake out) may start with that burden to free up Jarvis and Aho to cook a bit more offensively.
With two lines that can shoulder top minutes, the second line can be sheltered, which agrees with Taylor Hall. There were signs in Chicago that he still had some juice left, like his ability to set up scoring chances; with Carolina, he has the results to back it up. Mark Jankowski, a low-key deadline add, is also making an impact with his new team. That deep approach should agree with Andrei Svechnikov, who doesn’t face as much pressure this year to be The Guy.
While Jarvis, Aho, and even Staal are cornerstones who help the Canes maintain their system despite many tweaks to the supporting cast, Jaccob Slavin is the backbone of the defense. He is an elite shutdown defenseman and the most valuable in this series, with a plus-7.8 Net Rating.
Expect to see Slavin go head-to-head with the Nico Hischier line since he and Brent Burns take on top competition again this season. Last year, that role belonged to the second pair. After a lot of roster turnover, which bumped up Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield up the depth chart, that responsibility has shifted back to the first pair. Those deployment decisions help the Canes maximize Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere on the third pair.
Having three capable defensive pairs is essential for the Canes, who don’t have the steadiest goaltending situation. Frederik Andersen has been solid since returning to the lineup, but there are durability concerns. He is likely the starter on Day 1 of the playoffs, though, because Pyotr Kochetkov hasn’t been consistent enough — especially not over the last month of action.
Goaltending isn’t perfect on either side of this matchup. Jacob Markstrom’s Devils’ tenure started rough. But by December, he showed he had the chops to be the number one this team has been missing. An injury in January derailed that progress, and it took time for him to get back up to speed. Markstrom seems somewhat back on track, with five quality starts in his last seven outings. The problem is that his two below-average starts were outright awful. So, the defense should try to keep their number one as insulated as possible.
That will be a tough ask, with Jonas Siegenthaler likely out for this series. Jonathan Kovacevic’s game started to unravel when his mainstay partner was sidelined, but the addition of Brian Dumoulin has helped stabilize that second pair.
The Devils are getting some reinforcements back for Round 1, with Hamilton gearing up to return. He obviously won’t do much for the Devils’ shutdown game, but he is a play driver who can give this team a real offensive boost. Luke Hughes stepped up in his absence alongside former Cane Brett Pesce — if Hughes can maintain this level even when (or if) his role changes with the return of Hamilton, this blue line will be in solid shape. At the very least, considering how much Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey have struggled, it should knock out a weak link in the number-six role.
Up front, without a healthy Jack Hughes, Hischier emerges as the most valuable player in this series. He is an elite two-way center who could get some Selke appreciation this spring. But he alone can’t drive this team into Round 2.
With Hischer and Jesper Bratt stacked on the top line, the Devils are top-heavy heading into the playoffs. With Ondrej Palat on their left, this line has a 55 percent expected goal rate and a 30-22 scoring advantage. But with the Canes’ shutdown depth, the coaches may want to split this line more evenly, considering how bleak the roster is below them.
The problem is that there may not be enough reliable scoring if the power play is contained. Palat tends to come alive in the playoffs, but that isn’t a reliable promise. Meier needs more oomph behind his scoring to maintain it. Erika Haula and Cody Glass have been bright spots lately, and so has Stefan Noesen, but is that enough? The Devils will have to perform more than the sum of their parts to get past Carolina this time.
The key matchup
Sebastian Aho vs. Nico Hischier
We’re not doing ‘underrated’ discourse in the year 2025, but if we had to name two of the league’s Dangerfields, Aho and Hischier would be near the top of the list.
Neither seems to get the respect they deserve as responsible top line two-way centers. Aho is tucked away in Carolina playing in a defensive dump-and-chase system, yet still manages to be close to a point-per-game player. Hischier is tucked behind Hughes, but still manages to pace for 70-plus points despite soaking up all the tough assignments.
For both, possession play is the key to success and the battle between the two will be something to watch. Hischier is the one to bet on this year after a stronger season, but he’ll need to keep that up in this series given the Devils’ depth disadvantage. If he loses this matchup, it’s goodnight New Jersey.
The bottom line
The presence of players like Hischier and Bratt and Markstrom’s better-than-average potential to steal a few games makes the Devils impossible to count out, but the Hurricanes’ depth, experience and demonstrated five-on-five dominance mean that smart money is still on them.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis against the Devils: James Guillory / Imagn Images)