South Carolina may have gotten, to put it lightly, trounced by UConn in the championship game, but early (way too early) consensus odds opened with the Gamecocks as favorites to reclaim their lost title in 2026. While traditional power rankings are giving the defending champs the top spot, the Paige Bueckers-shaped hole in UConn’s lineup is likely what gave South Carolina the odds edge … for now.
With the portal still open until April 23, most sportsbooks are holding odds until the transfer dust settles, but some books have way-too-early odds for next season.
The Gamecocks opened at +450 on ESPN Bet to win the 2026 women’s NCAA basketball tournament, which puts them at the top of the odds board over USC (+500) and 2025’s newly-minted champion, UConn (+600). Texas, Notre Dame and LSU are tied for fourth at +750, while UCLA opened just behind at +850.
Since then, early action has lengthened a few top odds and shortened the Bruins.
While this year’s top tier features the usual suspects, there’s also plenty of uncertainty as the transfer portal does its thing, and JuJu Watkins’ injury casts a 6-foot-2 shadow on the league futures. Watkins is expected to be out for most of the season, and The Athletic’s Sabreena Merchant doesn’t have USC in her top-25 power rankings, which is a huge departure from what oddsmakers are predicting.
Women’s NCAA basketball 2026 national title odds
Odds as of Monday, April 7
It’s a familiar spot for Dawn Staley and Company, who were the overwhelming odds favorites (+150!) for this season after reaching the summit a year ago. This time last year, it was Texas and UConn behind South Carolina, followed by Notre Dame, USC and UCLA.
So, what’s next for South Carolina? According to Merchant, “South Carolina will lose at least three starters, and potentially four if Raven Johnson decides to go pro. But the Gamecocks machine is ready to backfill, with MiLaysia Fulwiley, Tessa Johnson and Joyce Edwards waiting in the wings. This isn’t a program that rebuilds; it reloads.”
Next up, as mentioned, the big question for second-favorite USC is how quickly Watkins can recover from her knee surgery. The Trojans also graduated four seniors and have three top freshmen in the portal. In Merchant’s power-ranking calculation, “the combination of Kennedy Smith, Malia Samuels and incoming Jazzy Davidson wasn’t enough to vault past these other teams.”
With its 12th national championship sealed, UConn looks ahead to next year without its superstar Paige Bueckers, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft (to the Dallas Wings). Now the Huskies enter their Sarah Strong era. The freshman phenom was outstanding in the tournament and will star alongside scoring partner Azzi Fudd, returning starter Jana El Alfy and developing talent like KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade and Ice Brady. Keep an eye on the transfer portal, too.
Texas aims to make it back to a Final Four berth with Madison Booker returning and a trio of rising sophomores to support her (Jordan Lee, Bryanna Preston and Justice Carlton). If Rori Harmon stays for a fifth year and Aaliyah Moore and Laila Phelia return from injuries, Vic Schaefer will have a formidable roster to compete again.
UCLA and LSU battled it out in the Elite Eight this year, and have been neck-and-neck in early odds. Both face question marks as to how far they can make it next season, but are loaded with talent and promise.
LSU’s Kim Mulkey is likely to leverage the transfer portal on top of retaining the dynamic duo of Flau’Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams and bringing in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class, including Grace Knox.
UCLA is bringing back most of its Final Four rotation, including Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice, and will be welcoming the No. 2 recruit in the country: None other than Betts’ 6-foot-4 sister Sienna Betts.
Rounding out the top seven in the odds board is Notre Dame, one of the past year’s most exciting early-season stories. Unfortunately for head coach Niele Ivey, the Fighting Irish are losing quite a few players to the portal, including star Olivia Miles. But two-time first-team All-American Hannah Hidalgo is staying.
The transfer portal is likely to reset some of the odds, so keep an eye out for big moves among these top programs.
(Photo of MiLaysia Fulwiley and Rori Harmon: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)