Welcome back for another week of fantasy football speculation. I use a patented, data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, with the goal of identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I include a section at the bottom of the column — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals (courtesy of TruMedia). In searching for a fantasy quarterback, we need volume, of course, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before digging through our speculative QB bargain bin, ensure Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston and Bo Nix are no longer available.
OK, people, this is it. We’re coming down the home stretch. Hopefully, you jumped on the Bo Nix recommendations before demand spiked through the roof. Unfortunately, that ship has now sailed. I took some heat in the comments section last week for recommending Will Levis. Hey, he wasn’t too bad (295-1-1; 7-18-0), considering the tough matchup. Levis outscored Jayden Daniels, Kirk Cousins, C.J. Stroud, and Lamar Jackson — could be worse. So again, we have a choice. It’s either the Will Levis experience once more, hoping Houston bottoms out, or (whispers) start Giants’ folk legend Tommy DeVito (ducks).
Don’t laugh; it depends on your situation. If I’m just plugging a bye-week hole, I’d roll with Tommy Cutlets against the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay defense is circling the drain — since Week 6, they’re last in completion rate allowed (70.9 percent), opposer passer rating (118.6), passing yards/game (304.3), passing TDs (19), and fantasy points allowed per game to QBs (26.4). DeVito’s tape leaves much to be desired across the board, but fortune favors the bold. Realistically, we’d be hoping for a repeat of last year’s 3-TD beatdown of Washington. If you’re heading for the playoffs but still streaming regularly at QB, roll the dice on Levis. Tennessee has a sweet draw from Weeks 14-17, facing JAX, CIN, @IND, and @JAX.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Roschon Johnson and Jaylen Warren have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Available RBs w/+45.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
With RB committees the new standard, you’ll be hard-pressed to find plug-and-play production at the position. If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout now and later, I would stash Cardinals backup Trey Benson (27 percent rostered). He’s played a major role in limited snaps and shown explosiveness as both a runner and pass catcher. And not to put any negativity in the universe, but he fits the prototype of a late-season league winner in the case of an injury to James Conner.
For the most desperate managers with immediate needs who were left empty-handed one way or another, check the availability of Tennessee’s new backup, Julius Chestnut. Tyjae Spears left last week’s game with a concussion, and in my deepest leagues, Chestnut was the only RB on a very bare wire projecting for 10 touches.
Wide Receivers
Like free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR adds Ricky Pearsall and Marquez Valdes-Scantling already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Available WRs w/ +20 Routes Run Per Game, +14% Targets Per Route, +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Jalen McMillan, TB — 46.0 Rte/Gm, 15.2% TPRR, 0.20 FPS/Rte
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN — 34.8 Rte/Gm, 13.7% TPRR, 0.39 FPS/Rte
- Darius Slayton, NYG — 34.0 Rte/Gm, 14.7% TPRR, 0.35 FPS/Rte
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 32.5 Rte/Gm, 12.3% TPRR, 0.27 FPS/Rte
- Demarcus Robinson, LAR — 31.3 Rte/Gm, 16.8% TPRR, 0.42 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 30.8 Rte/Gm, 18.7% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Kendrick Bourne, NE — 30.7 Rte/Gm, 15.2% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Alec Pierce, IND — 29.8 Rte/Gm, 15.1% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Sterling Shepard, TB — 28.3 Rte/Gm, 15.3% TPRR, 0.21 FPS/Rte
- Curtis Samuel, BUF — 26.0 Rte/Gm, 19.2% TPRR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Joshua Palmer, LAC — 25.5 Rte/Gm, 13.7% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 22.5 Rte/Gm, 16.7% TPRR, 0.37 FPS/Rte
- Calvin Austin III, PIT — 21.7 Rte/Gm, 18.5% TPRR, 0.39 FPS/Rte
Speculating on wideouts has at least given us a puncher’s chance this year — last week’s pick, Elijah Moore, posted a nice box score tally (6-66-1) and saved my bacon in a few spots.
If I can’t write about Bo Nix anymore, I’ll take the next best thing. Denver’s offense continues to outperform all expectations, outscoring both the 49ers and Packers on a per-game basis since Week 6. A big part of that success is seventh-round rookie slot WR Devaughn Vele. The Broncos draw the beleaguered Raiders, who’ve allowed 31.3 points per game during their current six-game losing streak. And guess what wound up right at the center of Vegas’ recent failures? You guessed it, slot WRs. The stats are cartoonish but true (I had to double-check myself) — slot WRs averaged 10.7 catches and 125.3 yards per game (!) this past month.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top add, Will Dissly, isn’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism — which may be an exercise in futility. But there’s no retreat or surrender in these fantasy streets.
TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +7.0 Air Yards Per Target (Past 4 Games)
- Theo Johnson, NYG — 16.8% Team Tar, 10.3 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 14.5% Team Tar, 9.9 AY/Tar
- Josh Oliver, MIN — 13.0% Team Tar, 7.9 AY/Tar
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 10.4% Team Tar, 10.0 AY/Tar
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR — 9.5% Team Tar, 7.1 AY/Tar
Week 12 Sunday Streaming Service
<35% Rostered per Yahoo!
- QB — Tommy DeVito, NYG vs TB
- RB — Trey Benson, ARI at SEA
- WR — Devaughn Vele, DEN at LV
- TE — Theo Johnson, NYG vs TB
- DST — Commanders vs DAL
(Top photo of Trey Benson: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
