Tick, tick, tick …
The Penguins are a disaster, having won only four games in regulation with Thanksgiving a few days away. Their goal differential is a baffling minus-34, worst in the NHL, seven goals clear of San Jose.
All of which brings us to the head coach. Mike Sullivan entered the season being viewed by many in the organization as bulletproof, for many reasons:
• Those two Stanley Cup rings loom large.
• He has a particularly close relationship with Sidney Crosby, who believes in Sullivan.
• Fenway Sports Group ownership is fond of Sullivan.
• Sullivan has two years remaining on his contract following this season. While Fenway might have a lot of money, the ownership group can be stingy, leading to the assumption that FSG wouldn’t be interested in paying for two head coaches for the better part of two seasons.
• And maybe the biggest of all: Expectations were low this season anyway, with a common sentiment around the organization that this team would miss the playoffs because it’s in transition.
So, is Sullivan in trouble?
The above evidence would suggest he’s not. But the truth is only Kyle Dubas truly knows, which is a very interesting part of this situation. As things currently stand, the Penguins don’t really have a boss. Sure, Fenway is in charge, but who’s calling the shots? Is John Henry analyzing the lack of production from the power play? Is Tom Werner worked up about the bad defensive zone coverage? Is Teddy Werner taking notes on Tristan Jarry’s glove hand?
Honestly, I don’t know. And I don’t mean to mock. They all seem like very nice people, and I mean that sincerely. But that’s the thing about FSG: They’re so, so corporate. And they don’t have hockey experience.
What this means is Sullivan’s fate is very much in Dubas’ hands. The Penguins don’t really have a boss in terms of ownership. Mario Lemieux might have been the most hands-off owner imaginable, but he was still the boss and made certain decisions. And kept everyone accountable because of who he was.
Dubas, frankly, has more power than anyone in the organization by a long shot.
I think Dubas likes Sullivan a lot and thinks he’s a great coach. I’d also note Dubas, more than anyone, seemed very interested in squashing optimism at his preseason news conference. I think he knew there was a real chance this team wouldn’t be very good and thus Sullivan probably was expected to survive this season.
The question is: How poorly do the Penguins have to play for Sullivan to get fired? I’m sure there is a point where Dubas will say enough is enough. No coach, not even Sullivan, is immune from being dismissed. The Penguins are horrific right now.
My sense all along, however, has been that Dubas and ownership don’t hold Sullivan responsible for what’s going on.
So, sure, he could get fired. But I think the Penguins view that as a last resort. And I don’t think they truly want to let him go.
When it comes to Mike Sullivan’s future, Kyle Dubas is the boss. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
• I sat down with Sullivan for a one-on-one interview last week.
While I assure you I wrote about the comments from Sullivan that I found to be the most interesting and revealing, I’ve had a few days to consider his mood, his mindset and everything he said.
If anything annoys Sullivan, it’s the perception that he doesn’t make in-game or in-season adjustments. He’s very sensitive to that.
• Do the Penguins continually make the same mistakes in the defense zone? Absolutely.
Do their special teams give them an edge on a regular, or even occasional, basis? Absolutely not.
Do the Penguins look stale? Absolutely.
Put it all together, and you’ve got a splendid recipe for a coach firing.
I will say this for Sullivan: His intensity and passion are the same as they’ve ever been. This isn’t a coach who is mailing it in, or who isn’t going out of his way to ignite his team. He’s doing everything. Lineup changes. Hard practices. Days off. Benching Hall of Fame defensemen from the power play. Putting his future Hall of Fame centers on the same line.
Lately, the Penguins have adopted more of a defensive posture. They were better defensively (baby steps) against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets, but it came at the expense of generating offense.
I think it’s unfair to suggest Sullivan never changes. He’s never changed more than he has this season.
The problem, of course, is that it isn’t working.
• Many people in the Penguins organization were disturbed by Crosby dropping the gloves on Friday against Winnipeg. Don’t take this the wrong way — no one has a problem with Crosby fighting. He’s a competitor of extreme measures and sometimes he fights. Fair enough.
What they’re troubled by is the reality that even at 37, Crosby is left to fight his own battles. The same can be said of Evgeni Malkin, 38, and Kris Letang, 37.
One team source told me: “If I played on the third or fourth line, saw Sid fight, and did nothing, I’d be f—— ashamed of myself.”
That’s a common thought in the organization. People are upset about the lack of fight from this team.
• I’d expect Tristan Jarry to keep playing on a regular basis. While he’s 0-2-1 since making his return to the lineup — and he’s given up 11 goals in those three games — the prevailing sentiment in the organization is that he’s made some progress.
Jarry allowed five goals in his return from Wilkes-Barre against the Blue Jackets, but the Penguins were so hideous defensively that game that the organization was very much willing to give the goaltender a pass.
He’s been better since then, allowing three goals apiece against the Lightning and Jets, two of the NHL’s more gifted offensive teams. While Brayden Point’s overtime goal was a bad look — Jarry’s penchant for allowing goals on the first shot of the game, which has remarkably happened in four of his six appearances this season, can’t be ignored, either — the Penguins think Jarry looks sharper and is in a clearer mindset now than he was in October.
How he will play moving forward is anyone’s guess, and gauging Penguins goalies isn’t easy simply because of the horrific defense being played in front of them. But the Penguins want to find out if Jarry has a future with them, or can be potentially used as a trade piece down the road, once and for all.
• The organization is delighted with what it has seen from Owen Pickering.
The 2022 first-round pick has dealt with some health setbacks but very much impressed the coaching staff with his performance during training camp. So far, he’s been one of the Penguins’ most steady defensemen. The sample size is small, but there is a mounting belief in the organization that Pickering is going to become a very good NHL player.
There’s a chance he will return to Wilkes-Barre, but I’d bet on him seeing the majority of this season in Pittsburgh. The Penguins really like him and they’re very much aware of how dreadful their blue line has been.
• The number of season-ticket holders I’ve heard from in recent days is staggering. While they’ve voiced many complaints, displeasure with Fenway Sports Group ownership is by far the most common theme.
(Top photo of Mike Sullivan: James Guillory / Imagn Images)
