Vikings-Rams preview, predictions: Can Kevin O'Connell best Sean McVay in wild-card round?

Monday night’s wild-card game between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams has been moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., because of the wildfires in southern California. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell was asked about the circumstances Thursday and said, “We’ll just go play the game wherever it’s going to be, and all of that is centered around pretty deep concern for the folks both personally that I know and everybody impacted.”

The game is a matchup between O’Connell and Rams head coach Sean McVay, who won a Super Bowl together in 2021. McVay bested O’Connell and the Vikings 30-20 in Week 8, but Minnesota is healthier this time around as linebacker Blake Cashman and right guard Dalton Risner will be in action. As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview. Both pass along their deepest thoughts and prayers for the folks in Los Angeles.

We’re thinking of our Rams friends, their community and the first responders during this time💜💛 https://t.co/mM5hXLqzTe

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) January 8, 2025

What I’m watching

Lewis: How does the Vikings offense look at the outset? Will Sam Darnold struggle with accuracy? Can the offensive line hold up against the young but ferocious Rams defensive front? Which types of plays will O’Connell design for the beginning of the game?

This kind of feels like the football version of needing to see the ball go through the hoop. The more early rhythm the Vikings can create offensively, the better off they’ll be. The Los Angeles defense plays a completely different style from Detroit — less man coverage, fewer all-out pressures — but its pass rushers can still affect a quarterback’s timing and comfort. Preventing that from happening feels essential to winning this game.

Krawczynski: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Yes, Darnold was off the mark in Detroit and has to be much better in the playoffs. But as the game went on, I didn’t see one of the best receiver tandems in the NFL taking advantage of the aggressive man coverage the Lions deployed.

Jefferson dreams of man coverage when he goes to sleep at night. It’s conceivable that the Rams will try to take a page out of Detroit’s playbook. If that happens, Jefferson has to roast it — same with Addison. They have to give Darnold can’t-miss opportunities. If Darnold doesn’t hit them, that’s on him. But these receivers have to win the day on Monday night.

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Biggest concerns

Lewis: Jared Verse, Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske. Verse has generated 76 pressures this season, the most by a rookie since Nick Bosa in 2019. Fiske has a 10.9 percent pressure rate, which is the second-highest among rookie defensive tackles since 2018. Last year, Young and Turner combined for 110 pressures, a huge amount for a pair of rookies.

These guys would cause concern for any team, but this is a Vikings offensive line that lacks consistency. Since left tackle Christian Darrisaw tore his ACL in Week 8, the Vikings have allowed an NFL-high 40.6 percent pressure rate. Some of that figure is a byproduct of the Vikings’ large number of deep drops and vertical passes, but leakiness against this energetic front is a concern.

Krawczynski: Will the Thrill. The Vikings are in the playoffs, so it makes sense that my biggest concern is about the kicker, right? Will Reichard was perfect through the first seven weeks of the season, as close to a lock as a kicker could be. Then he missed time with an injury and hasn’t looked as sharp since he came back.

Reichard has missed at least one kick in four of the six games since his return. Then there was the errant kickoff in Detroit. This figures to be a close game, as does any game should they be fortunate enough to advance. Chances are, Reichard has to be closer to perfect than he has been of late. Is it asking a lot? Absolutely. But that’s what’s required right now.

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Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Vikings secondary versus Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee. It was fascinating to rewatch the Week 8 matchup between these teams. The Vikings defense played some drop-eight coverages to clog zones underneath and over the middle. The Vikings also played some man coverage.

Matthew Stafford wasn’t perfect, and some of Minnesota’s defensive disguises worked. But he frequently dished the ball to the perimeter, forcing the Vikings cornerbacks to tackle.

I expect much of the same this time around. Limiting Nacua feels like defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ primary challenge. Since Week 8, Stafford has targeted Nacua on nearly 40 percent of his routes, the most of any receiver in that span, according to Next Gen Stats. If the Vikings play zone, the pass rush must affect Stafford. If they play man, Minnesota can’t afford to get beaten deep or give yards away due to penalties down the field.

Krawczynski: The Rams’ coaching staff versus the Vikings’ coaching staff. The Vikings have enjoyed a coaching advantage nearly every time they stepped on the field this season. But Dan Campbell, Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson outperformed O’Connell, Flores and Wes Phillips last week. Now the Vikings are up against McVay, who seems to get an assistant or two hired to run a team every January, O’Connell included.

This is not going to be a game where Minnesota will run circles around its opponent from a schematic standpoint. Flores will have to find a way to get Stafford off his game, something he was unable to do in Week 8. O’Connell will have to get Darnold back on track against an aggressive Rams front seven. It is going to be a chess match of the highest order. How both teams adjust to what happened in the first meeting will tell the tale on Monday night.

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Most interesting storyline

Lewis: O’Connell matching up against McVay with the season on the line. They learned from each other and leaned on each other in 2021, when the Rams lost a Week 18 game to the 49ers, then responded on the road in a wild-card matchup against Arizona and rolled to the Super Bowl. They remain close confidants.

Their special traits transcend scheme and quarterback development but also tie into leadership and culture-building. McVay won the first matchup, and this special Vikings season hinges on O’Connell responding. Beating McVay to move on in this single-elimination tournament would speak volumes about O’Connell’s abilities and his team’s resilience.

Krawczynski: The way the goalposts have moved for the Vikings this season. When J.J. McCarthy went down with a knee injury in the preseason, the outlook for this team was subdued. Fans braced for a long gap year, hoped for another high draft pick and focused on all the cap space their team would have in the offseason.

Four months later, the Vikings are 14-3, and there was legit disappointment that they lost the regular-season finale and the No. 1 seed that would have come with one more win. They are victims of their own success now, entering these playoffs with the belief that they have a real chance at coming out of the NFC. A loss to the Rams would be massively disappointing. How will they handle that pressure?

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How the teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 24, Rams 20. This is based upon belief in O’Connell and the Vikings offensive staff assisting the offensive line with chips and extra protection. The run game will be important in this, too. Allow the Rams defensive front to tee off, and Darnold and the Vikings could be in for a long night.

Krawczynski: Vikings 27, Rams 24. I expect Darnold to bounce back from last week. I expect the Vikings defense to be better prepared than he was in Week 8. And heart-breakingly, the people of Los Angeles have been through a devastating week. I wouldn’t blame the Rams at all if their hearts and minds are elsewhere.

(Photo of O’Connell and McVay: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)