On the eve of the NFL playoffs, the oddsmakers have made their thoughts clear: There are five clear Super Bowl contenders, and then there’s everyone else. As of the morning of Jan. 9, the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and Eagles all have odds of +700 or shorter to win the Super Bowl. After that, there’s a massive gap before the Vikings check in at +1600. Vegas, at least, isn’t betting on a surprise.
But that’s what we do. So we’ve taken our PhD in underdog-hunting and focused on the nine playoff teams outside of that five-pack of favorites. Which ones have the best chance to reach the big game? We came up with a fairly simple system. First, we used four different rating systems — simple rating system (SRS), ESPN’s football power index (FPI), Team Rankings and Massey Ratings — to create an “average power ranking” for each playoff team. Then we mapped out each team’s path to the Super Bowl based on the highest seed winning every other game not involving that particular underdog. By creating this “chalk path,” we were able to determine each team’s odds to make it to New Orleans if they don’t get any help from additional upsets along the way.
It’s not that this method is sacrosanct in determining an underdog’s Super Bowl odds. But it’s a handy way to offer an overview of each team’s most likely path to Super Bowl 2025. It also produced some surprising results — so much so that we decided to provide some alternative arguments, too. But one thing is quite clear: It will take a serious effort for anyone outside of the Big Five to still be standing on Feb. 9.
Super Bowl odds
Without further preamble, we give you: Super Bowl underdogs, ranked.
Record/seed: 11-6, No. 7 in NFC
Chalk path: at Eagles (2), at Lions (1), at Tampa Bay (3)
Chance to beat those opponents: 6.9%
By the numbers: It’s a sign of just how much predictive metrics love Green Bay that we’re giving the Packers the best chance of any wild card to make the Super Bowl despite the tough gamut they’re likely to run. But the stats here are easy to understand: This is a team with a top-10 offense and defense, and it spent the period from Thanksgiving through Christmas showing how it could steamroll opponents. This season, Jordan Love threw for 7.51 adjusted net yards per attempt — a measure that incorporates touchdowns, interceptions and sacks — ranking fifth in the league. And Green Bay’s aggressive defense allowed the third-fewest expected points per passing play in the NFL this season. The Packers did this just by getting to opposing quarterbacks (7.4 percent sack percentage, ranking ninth) but also by forcing bad decisions. The Packers forced turnovers on 16.2 percent of drives this year, the third-highest figure in the league. (Xavier McKinney had more than twice as many yards on interception returns this season than all the members of the Giants, his former team, combined.)
There’s a boom-or-bust quality to Green Bay’s play, particularly on D. (The Packers finished the regular season with seven sacks in a 17-point win at Seattle, a 34-0 blowout of the Saints … and two-point losses to Minnesota and Chicago.) But at this time of year, that’s a good quality for an underdog: In the win-or-go-home environment of the playoffs, longshots succeed when their very best is good enough to take down superior foes.
On the other hand: The Packers played five games against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles this year and lost them all. Overall, they were 3-5 against teams with winning records. Further worry: WR Christian Watson, who led the team with 21.4 yards per reception, suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Bears in Week 18.
Record/seed: 11-6, No. 5 in AFC
Chalk path: At Texans (4), at Chiefs (1), at Buffalo (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 6.3%
By the numbers: Just one year after ranking 27th in the NFL in expected points allowed, the Chargers led the league in scoring defense, giving up only 17.7 points per game. A resurgent Derwin James Jr. and a bunch of smart, relatively inexpensive acquisitions have keyed dramatic improvement, as players like Poona Ford, Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden had terrific regular seasons. And under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have quickly become masters of doing all the little things that don’t show up on stat sheets — except they do show up, if you know where to look.
The Chargers don’t commit penalties (1,587 yards lost to penalties on offense and defense combined, fourth-lowest in the NFL). They gained 12 yards per punt return this year but gave up just 9.6. They attempted more field goals than they allowed, and Cameron Dicker was nine for 11 on attempts of more than 50 yards. Oh yeah, and while he was setting career highs in YPA and passer rating, Justin Herbert threw just three picks in 504 attempts this season. This is a team that just does not make mistakes.
Also, while they haven’t managed to actually do it since 2021, the Chargers are positioned as well as any team to take down the Chiefs. In their last meeting, at Arrowhead Stadium in December, Herbert passed for 213 yards, while Patrick Mahomes had 210. L.A. ran for 94 yards, K.C. 96. Each team had 20 first downs, took three sacks and lost no turnovers. The Chiefs escaped on a last-second field goal, but even a single bounce could have changed the outcome. An underdog can’t ask for much more.
On the other hand: The Chargers’ defense sagged against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in the second half of the year. And while Ladd McConkey has been a pleasant surprise, Herbert is seriously short on game-changing targets. The Chargers’ dearth of receivers is the most visible sign of how they purged many of their biggest contracts after last year. That’s something they found ways to work around throughout the regular season, but it might leave them vulnerable in the coming weeks.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record/seed: 10-7, No. 3 in NFC
Chalk path: vs. Commanders (6), at Eagles (2), at Lions (1)
Chance to beat those opponents: 4.6%
Behind the numbers: Sometimes, we can learn a lot just by counting. Baker Mayfield posted 41 touchdowns this year. Despite all the rules changes and inflation of passing stats the NFL has seen in recent decades, only eight quarterbacks have ever thrown for more in a single season. (And none currently play in the NFC.) That’s really good! With Mayfield breaking a batch of Tom Brady’s team records and Pro Football Focus’ third-ranked offensive line blowing holes open between the tackles (5.3 yards per rush, second-best in the NFL), the Bucs rolled to 502 points, while no other team in their division touched 400. On defense, Tampa Bay famously blitzes more than almost anyone (34.2 percent of dropbacks, ranking third). That could prove especially useful in the first round: Jayden Daniels took sacks on 41.3 percent of plays where he was under pressure this season, the second-highest rate in the league.
On the other hand: The Buccaneers gave up 14.1 first-half points per game this year, more than any team other than Carolina, before tightening up to 7.9 second-half points per game, second-best in the NFL. Their secondary has sustained a series of injuries, but it’s fair to wonder if they can keep waiting until halftime to tackle.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Record/seed: 14-3, No. 5 in NFC
Chalk path: at Rams (4), at Lions (1), at Eagles (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 3.4%
Behind the numbers: Less than a week ago, the Vikings were playing for the top seed in the NFC, and they finished tied for third in the NFL with 14 wins, an absurd mark for a wild-card team. That would seem to imply a strong shot at a Super Bowl run, but advanced metrics don’t agree. Their average power rating of 4.25 is fifth among NFC playoff teams. Minnesota ranks second in Team Rankings’ luck ratings, partly due to their 9-1 record in one-score games. And while the Vikings dominated inferior opponents (10-0 vs. sub-.500 teams), they were only 4-3 against teams with winning records.
On the other hand: Did we mention that the Vikings won 14 games? That doesn’t happen entirely by accident. Start with their defense, which ranked third in EPA per snap and was strong against both the run (fourth by EPA) and the pass (fourth by EPA per dropback). And this isn’t a bend-but-don’t-break unit: The Vikings are the league’s most blitz-happy team and forced a turnover on 16.6 percent of drives (second in the league). That’s exactly the kind of high-risk, high-reward play that benefits an underdog.
The Vikings’ offense might not have the same juice, ranking 15th overall in EPA per play and 11th in points per drive, but it also left some meat on the bone. Minnesota ranked just 19th in red zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on only 55.7 percent of drives inside the 20-yard line, meaning with a little more luck and/or efficiency, they could turn more field goals into touchdowns. And there’s balance with the Justin Jefferson-led passing game and Aaron Jones-fueled rushing attack: The Vikings rank sixth in EPA on thrown passes per snap and 16th on non-QB rush EPA per snap.
Yes, Sam Darnold looked bewildered against Detroit in the regular season finale, and that conjures all sorts of lingering doubts. But this is the same QB who threw for 4,319 yards and 35 TDs this season and whose offense is loaded with weapons, including Jefferson, Jones, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. No team in the NFC, outside of the Eagles and Lions, has as many ways to win.
Record/seed: 10-7, No. 7 in AFC
Chalk path: at Bills (2), at Chiefs (1), at Ravens (3)
Chance to beat those opponents: 2.3%
Behind the numbers: The Broncos’ average power rating outpaces that of higher seeds Houston and Pittsburgh, and it is fueled by their defense. The Broncos rank first in the NFL in defensive EPA per snap, and they are equally ferocious against the pass (first) and run (third). While Denver’s offense isn’t nearly as good (22nd in EPA in non-QB rushing, 23rd in thrown passes), it is trending up: They have scored at least 24 points in each of their past seven games and topped 30 four times. During that span, the Broncos rank sixth in offensive EPA per snap.
On the other hand: It’s somewhat remarkable that the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds aren’t the worst in the league, considering their likeliest path would take them through games at Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore. That’s a gauntlet to end all other gauntlets. It’s also quite possible that the Broncos’ overall stats aren’t telling the full story of how they stack up against the best teams. Remember that all-world defense? Well, it feasted on the weak. Against sub-.500 teams, the Broncos went 8-0, and their defense led the league in EPA per play. Against teams with winning records, though, they fell to 10th in defensive EPA, including 19th against the pass. And Denver went 2-7 in those games. That’s not the resume of a team ready to pull off three major upsets in a row, even if Bo Nix has turned a corner in his development.
6. Houston Texans
Record/seed: 10-7, No. 4 in AFC
Chalk path: vs. Chargers (5), at Chiefs (1), at Bills (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 1.9%
Behind the numbers: Houston has the worst average power rating of any playoff team, and the only reason why their Super Bowl odds aren’t similarly ranked is the fact that they open with a home game against the Chargers. But this is a division champ in name only. Their stats are a testament to mediocrity: 16th in total DVOA, 25th in offensive EPA per snap and 1-5 vs. teams with winning records. The Texans do rank fifth in overall defensive EPA per snap, but like Denver, their performance dipped against teams with winning records (15th). And while the Texans entered the season poised to be an offensive juggernaut, C.J. Stroud’s development was compromised by an offensive line that allowed a 36.7 percent pressure rate (ninth-worst), injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell and a run game that ranked last in success rate at 31.5 percent.
On the other hand: In this case, there’s not much reason for doubt. The numbers tell an accurate story of a team that beat up a lousy division but simply doesn’t have enough talent to beat the best teams in the league. Houston’s odds are enhanced by virtue of their home matchup against the Chargers and then a potential game against a Chiefs team that is analytically penalized for scraping out so many close wins. But unless some other upsets take out the Bills and Ravens, winning three straight games seems like far too tall of a task.
7. Los Angeles Rams
Record/seed: 10-7, No. 4 in NFC
Chalk path: vs. Vikings (5), at Lions (1), at Eagles (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 1.1%
Behind the numbers: The Rams were struck by an epidemic of injuries at the beginning of the year — by mid-September, their entire offensive line, two leading receivers and half their defensive backfield were hurt. But across the season as a whole, they generated very fortunate results. The Rams were outscored (367 points to 386), yet won 10 games. And they clinched a playoff berth on a strength-of-victory tiebreaker, though they built their second-half record of 6-2 on wins over the Patriots, Saints, depleted 49ers and Jets. Overall, they were very uneven. In their last three meaningful games, they scored a total of 44 points, as many as they did in their one big outburst, an early December win over Buffalo. It’s hard to see any unit on the Rams as better than any they might line up against among their potential playoff opponents.
On the other hand: In the 11 games when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua managed to play together, Matthew Stafford targeted them on more than 200 throws combined. As long as all three are on the field together, there’s some hope the Rams will light things up. That’s particularly true in the first round: Stafford’s excellence under pressure was a key reason why the Rams beat the Vikings back in Week 8, when he went 10-of-13 with 128 yards against the blitz without taking a sack.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record/seed: 10-7, No. 6 in AFC
Chalk path: at Ravens (3), at Chiefs (1), at Bills (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 1%
Behind the numbers: Week by week, the Steelers are running out of gas in plain sight, and there’s not much we can add to what we have all been watching. Pittsburgh ranked 20th in the NFL this year in expected points added from passing and 29th from rushing. With an offense reduced to occasional bombs from Russell Wilson, the Steelers sputtered down the stretch, losing their last four games while failing to score more than 17 points in any of those contests. And double-digit losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and especially the Ravens have wrecked hopes this team could contend with playoff heavyweights. (Pittsburgh is now +3500 to win the AFC at BetMGM.) In the regular-season finale against Cincinnati, the Steelers gained a total of 193 yards, and George Pickens talked trash to hometown fans.
Afterward, the conditions for the Justin Fields trade were settled: Pittsburgh would owe Chicago a sixth-round draft pick rather than a fourth-rounder. It was the best news the team had generated in weeks. Yay.
On the other hand: If anyone in professional football deserves the benefit of the doubt from statheads, it’s Mike Tomlin. Over the past decade, his teams have exceeded their expected records (based on their points scored and allowed) by a remarkable 10.6 wins. The Steelers have also gone 62-25-3 (63.5 percent) against the spread as underdogs over the course of Tomlin’s coaching career, by far the best record in the NFL. We aren’t sure he’s still as underestimated as he used to be, but if there were ever a time for him to break out the smoke and mirrors ….
9. Washington Commanders
Record/seed: 12-5, No. 6 in NFC
Chalk path: at Bucs (3), at Lions (1), at Eagles (2)
Chance to beat those opponents: 0.9%
Behind the numbers: Washington’s 12-5 record was buoyed by a massive dose of good luck. Noah Brown’s game-winning Hail Mary catch against Chicago is the most glaring example, but the Commanders went 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less and trailed or were tied in the fourth quarter of five of their victories. Yes, Jayden Daniels set a record by passing for a TD in the final 30 seconds or overtime in five games, and some might call that clutch. But it’s also a dangerously thin margin for error and not conducive to a sustainable playoff run.
On the other hand: Maybe we should give the Commanders more credit than their average power ranking (11th among playoff teams) suggests. They rank 10th in DVOA (one spot ahead of their first-round foe, Tampa Bay), and they boast an offense that is fifth in the NFL in EPA per play and actually rises to fourth against teams with winning records. Yes, there are issues on defense: The Commanders rank 24th in EPA per play, 21st in defensive success rate, 28th in yards allowed per rush and 24th in EPA per dropback. But they can win a shootout (see their 36-33 victory over the Eagles in which they overcame five turnovers).
Though the Commanders would have to face the top three NFC seeds on their most likely road to the Super Bowl, it might not be as daunting a path as that appears. They’re merely a three-point underdog against Tampa Bay, Detroit’s defense is still decimated by injuries and they’ve already defeated the Eagles. Is that likely? No. Is it more than 0.9 percent likely? Yeah, we’d say so.
(Photo of Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert: Illustration by Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos by Candice Ward, John Fisher, Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
