As Arsenal hold onto their fading title hopes, every match becomes crucial. This weekend, they face a Leicester City side desperately trying to claw their way out of the relegation abyss. It’s a clash of two teams engaged in very different battles, creating plenty of opportunities for intriguing bets.
Will Ruud van Nistelrooy’s struggling squad be able to thwart the Gunners’ ambitions of closing the gap on Liverpool? Or will Arsenal steamroll their way to another dominant win?
The Athletic’s Julia Ranney breaks down the key bets, from underdog odds to goal markers, as well as offering her expertise on the bigger picture wagers.
Can Leicester dominate the underdog odds?
It’s a tale of two teams with vastly different ambitions. Arsenal are struggling to keep up with Liverpool at the summit, while Leicester City are desperate to escape the drop. The circumstances couldn’t be starker, but both need the same outcome – a win.
The Gunners last won the league over a decade ago and have since struggled to compete with clubs like Liverpool and Manchester City for the title. This season, Mikel Arteta’s ambitions to topple his rivals have been dented by on-going injury concerns. Key players such as Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all sidelined.
Will that affect the odds in any way? Given that this weekend’s hosts boast a miserable record of seven wins at the King Power, with just two wins and three draws, the odds are very much in Arsenal’s favour (no, really – they’re priced up at 30/100 to win).
The Foxes have lost eight of their last nine league matches, which explains their measly 10/1 odds. They’ve struggled for creativity and defensive solidity. It’s not surprising that they’ve conceded 53 goals this campaign, nor the fact that they’ve only managed to score in three of their last five games. It would take self-sabotage the dark arts, or a monumental, unexplained collapse from Arsenal for van Nistelrooy’s weary troops to come away with victory.
Now, if bettors want to risk and punt on the hosts, a 5/1 pick for a draw could be an appealing wager. Jannik Vestergaard, Victor Kristiansen and Jamie Vardy are all expected to be back on the team sheet after missing last week’s game against Manchester United through injury – three players keen to prevent their team from falling back down the pyramid.
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Why you should bet on the over/under markets
History points toward a goal-heavy clash. Cast your minds back to last September when these two teams met at the Emirates; the hosts netted twice in stoppage time to secure a thrilling 4-2 win. It’s unlikely that a repeat of that six-goal showdown will pan out this weekend, but the over/under goals market might be a wise punt to invest in.
That Arsenal recently battered the reigning – waning – Premier League champions with a scathing 5-1 scoreline is a far more convincing statistic to support the above reasoning. Sure, the over 2.5 goals market, priced at 8/13, may not seem the most lucrative, but goals are not in short supply for the North Londoners, making it a strong value bet.
Title-winning odds and relegation implications
Arsenal slipping up at the King Power could be the final nail in the coffin for the Gunners’ chances of catching – and usurping – Liverpool.
Imagine pining for the love of your life for a decade, and then, despite multiple chances to win them over, they marry your worst enemy. That can’t be too dissimilar to how Arteta and his squad are feeling now; unfortunately, the odds aren’t offering much comfort.
At 15/4 to win the league versus Liverpool’s commanding 1/4, the North Londoners might be barking up a tree too steep to climb.
For Leicester, this match matters even more. Winning the Championship was fun, but does lifting a second-tier trophy lose its appeal when you have to go through the process of winning it again?
If you’re into long-term bets, keep an eye on the relegation markets. A Leicester loss paired with wins for Ipswich and Southampton, sitting 19th and 20th, respectively, could be devastating. The Saints’ fate are all but sealed (1/100 odds), and at 2/13, the Foxes aren’t far behind.
Van Nistelrooy’s defence has been lacklustre all season. Unless his backline morphs into the Justice League overnight, their story won’t have a happy ending.
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(Photo of Kai Havertz: Getty Images/Shaun Botteril)
