A Sunday afternoon, top-four-defining showdown between Arsenal and Chelsea? Yes, please.
The Gunners are chasing a top two-finish in the table after securing their place in the Champions League quarter-finals earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Chelsea have their focus set on nailing a highly-coveted top-four spot.
Both sides are feeling the heat. Arsenal’s rock-solid defence and set-piece mastery against the visitors’ resilience and offensive firepower pave the way for a tightly contested match with plenty of betting opportunities. Let’s dive into the key bets.
Betting markets at-a-glance
The Gunners enter this clash as favourites, and the correct score markets back that up. A 1-0 win is the likeliest outcome (7/1), hinting at a tight affair. A 2-0 victory (17/2) is also plausible, reinforcing the bookmakers’ faith in Arsenal’s defensive structure — helped in no small part by David Raya, whose 10 clean sheets rank second in the league behind Nottingham Forest’s Matz Sels.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are clear underdogs, with a 1-0 win seen as a long shot (14/1). For bettors backing the Blues, a 1-1 draw (13/2) could be the safer option if both defences hold firm. But with Cole Palmer bagging 14 goals this season, Chelsea have firepower to shake things up.
Winning margin odds also suggest a close contest, with Arsenal to win by a single goal (11/4) or two (4/1) leading the way. As for total goals, over 2.5 (10/11) has a slight edge, but under 2.5 (93/100) is nearly even money.
So, if we do see goals, who’s most likely to step up? For Arsenal, look out for Leandro Trossard (5/2) and Mikel Merino (3/1), while Raheem Sterling (11/4) and Cole Palmer (14/5) are prime suspects for Chelsea.
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Arsenal’s not-so-secret weapon
Under the guidance of set-piece coach Nicolas Jover, corners have become Arsenal’s bread and butter.
Last season, the Gunners bagged 16 goals from corners, at least four more than any other team. They’ve built their squad around aerial threats like Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba, who excel in set-piece situations. But it’s not just about personnel — it’s also about precision. Arsenal predominantly take inswingers (96 per cent), with Martin Ødegaard and Declan Rice delivering with pace and dip. They rarely opt for short corners (just five per cent) because they know their strength lies in whipping dangerous crosses into the box.
The results speak for themselves. So far this season, Arsenal have scored 10 goals from 184 corners — more than any other league side. These goals have come in crucial moments: the North London derby winner, the lead-taking strike at the Etihad, and a dramatic 94th-minute decider against Leicester City. Their approach is clear; crowd the six-yard box (they average 3.8 players inside it per corner) and create chaos. In a season-defining clash, where open-play chances can be scarce, a well-executed corner can be the difference between winning and losing.
Bookmakers recognize Arsenal’s dominance in this area. They’re 1/2 favourites to win the corners battle against Chelsea, who sit at 11/4. Expect a busy afternoon for set-pieces, with over 8.5 corners priced at 1/2 and 9.5 corners at 4/5.
More than just a London Derby?
This isn’t just another London dust-up — it’s a rivalry with significant permutations. Arsenal sit second with 55 points, and while chasing Liverpool’s title charge feels like a long shot, the Gunners aren’t about to let up. A strong finish could set the tone for next season.
Chelsea, on the other hand, are walking a tightrope. They’re clinging to fourth place with 49 points, but unlike Arsenal – who are practically Champions League-certified – the visitor’s spot in Europe’s elite competition is anything but secure. Despite a season sprinkled with head-scratching performances, Man City are just two points behind the Blues, while Newcastle and Brighton are circling like sharks, waiting for a slip-up. Should Enzo Maresca’s troops drop points here, they risk handing over their seat at Europe’s top table to their competitors.
For Arsenal, this game is a test of mentality. They’ve steamrolled bottom-half teams but have been accused of being big-game bottle jobs in recent years. Beating Chelsea would help rewrite the narrative so that they are recognised as a team that can step up when it matters most — even if their title ambitions are out of the picture.
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(Photo of Declan Rice: Glyn Kirk / AFP via Getty Images)
