It’s “decimal” check-in time for the Washington Wizards. Every 10 games or so, each player on the roster meets with a swath of people from across the team’s basketball operations department. Together, they review how the player is progressing on goals tailored for him.
This got me to thinking: Why not assess the Wizards’ progress every 10 games, and make those assessments within the broader context of what the franchise is trying to accomplish short-term and long-term? If things are going well for a player, I’ll say “Stock Up.” If things are going poorly, I’ll say “Stock Down.” Fair warning: Sometimes, I’ll focus on untraditional areas.
If you want a reason to feel optimistic about the Wizards’ future, look no further than Coulibaly.
The 20-year-old wing is the team’s brightest bright spot by a wide margin.
No Wizards player has made larger strides since last season. As a rookie, Coulibaly showed promise guarding opponents’ best perimeter scorers and playmakers. But on offense, he was a low-usage, low-efficiency contributor whose best moments came on feet-set 3s. Now, however, coach Brian Keefe has entrusted Coulibaly with a greater playmaking role, and Coulibaly has emerged as a dynamic driver and passer who can score and create. His ballhandling has improved so much that he now harnesses his quickness and size to get where he wants to go on the court. That’s a big step.
He’s scored at least 20 points in four of Washington’s 10 games, but what’s been more striking is how efficient he’s been. Through Tuesday, he had converted 93 percent of his shot attempts within the restricted area and nearly 38 percent of his 3s. Asked how he balances being efficient and taking a large number of shots, Coulibaly provided an answer that shows how well he processes the game, how well he understands his strengths and how well he’s been coached. “I just get to my shots, the ones I work on,” he said, emphasizing the word “my.” “I’m not trying to do anything I didn’t work on. I’m just trying to be myself, and I know it’s going in. I’m just confident because I worked on that.”
Bilal Coulibaly remains Washington’s best young prospect. (Mike Watters / Imagn Images)
Any discussion about the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft requires nuance.
No player on the roster better illustrates the team’s approach to young players’ development — and how much it deviates from an old-school approach — than Sarr. If the Wizards were a contending team whose main goal was to win now, Sarr almost certainly wouldn’t be playing much, if at all. And if he were playing on a contender, the coach likely would rein in Sarr’s 3-point shooting volume because Sarr’s 3-point shooting has been horrendously inaccurate. During Friday’s game in Memphis, the Grizzlies sagged off Sarr on four of his five attempts from deep, preferring instead to pack the paint to cut off driving lanes for the rest of the Wizards players. The Grizzlies essentially encouraged Sarr to launch 3s, and Sarr missed all five of his attempts.
GO DEEPER
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But giving Sarr a green light to shoot whenever he’s open has advantages. Asked about Sarr’s long-range shooting, Keefe said he has “no concern with that at all,” adding, “If he’s open, let it fly. Shoot ’em. He’s taking good shots.”
It signals to Sarr that coaches have confidence in him, and confidence is a crucial attribute for a young player. It also shows the kind of offensive player the Wizards think Sarr can become: a legit stretch big whose shooting range will eventually create space for his teammates. Maybe he’ll find his shooting stroke this season.
There’s another consideration — perhaps the most important consideration — that cannot be ignored. Washington would be well served to finish with one of the league’s worst records to help its chances in the 2025 NBA Draft lottery. So, if Sarr misses lots of shots and Washington loses games as an indirect result, Washington still would benefit because of the lottery-odds implications.
Downsides would emerge only if Sarr loses confidence in himself or if Sarr’s teammates lose confidence in the direction of the team. So far, there are no indications that Sarr and his teammates have lost their faith.
This month, Sarr has made only three of his 27 attempts from beyond the arc.
It would be nice to see Sarr roll to the hoop more often and emerge as a threat to finish teammates’ lobs. One of Sarr’s weaknesses is that he doesn’t use his height to its best advantage on offense. He is a legit 7-footer who too often defaults on offense to a 6-footer’s style of play.
Still, Sarr has some characteristics and abilities that cannot be taught. As NBA.com writer John Schuhmann has pointed out, Sarr has fared decently as a rim protector (until he faced off Monday night against Houston’s Alpern Şengün, that is). Through Washington’s first nine games, opponents went 44-of-72 (61 percent) at the rim when he’s defended at the rim. According to Cleaning the Glass, an advanced analytics database that filters out garbage-time and blowout minutes, Sarr blocked 4.5 percent of opponents’ shot attempts in those games; that’s a sky-high rate.
Because of a groin injury he suffered on Oct. 28, Kuzma missed five of Washington’s games. So, it would not be fair to evaluate Kuzma’s play in his two games back too harshly. Even a veteran player needs time to regain his rhythm.
Overall, Kuzma is averaging 15.8 points on 35 percent shooting.
That said, Kuzma also struggled to find a rhythm. He has said he is finding his way in Washington’s revamped offense, which, according to Keefe, really isn’t that much different than it was after Keefe became the interim coach midway through last season. For Kuzma, what’s probably most different is that, with Coulibaly taking on a larger playmaking role and without skilled setup man Tyus Jones on the team, Kuzma isn’t getting the ball in his favorite spots as often as he did last season.
The league standings: Stock Up
The Wizards, now 2-8, are where they need to be in the league standings. No other team has fewer wins. The Utah Jazz are 2-8. The Philadelphia 76ers are 2-9, but they should improve if Joel Embiid continues to play. And the Toronto Raptors are a league-worst 2-10.
As distasteful as it sounds, it’s imperative that the Wizards finish within the bottom three of the league standings. Because of the league’s lottery reforms that went into effect in 2019, the teams with the league’s three worst records will have the identical probabilities to win the first, second, third or fourth picks in the draft.
But it’s also important to note that the team that finishes with the league’s worst record, barring a tie, cannot wind up with any pick worse than fifth. The team with the second-worst record will end up with no worse than the sixth pick but also will have a 20 percent chance of picking sixth. And so on.
There is a significant benefit to finishing with the league’s worst record outright.
Poole has built on the positive momentum he had at the end of last season. Including his 42-point performance in Wednesday’s loss in San Antonio, Poole is averaging 22.2 points on 46-percent shooting from the field and 44-percent shooting from deep.
The icing on the cake? Poole is averaging 2.3 steals per game, and he’s compiled those steals without abandoning the right defensive position.
Jordan Poole is playing efficient offensive basketball and disruptive defense. (Scott Wachter / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George: Stock Up
The rookie guards have distinguished themselves for their strong feel for the game and for their fearlessness. Draymond Green praised them for their competitiveness and bravado during the Wizards’ loss to the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 4.
(Top photo of Alex Sarr: Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
