- Alpha price suggests whales may take profits; realized price shows long-term bullish momentum remains.
- ETF inflows and rising realized price point to strong institutional conviction and continued uptrend.
Bitcoin [BTC] investors are at a crossroads. On-chain indicators are flashing conflicting signals — while the alpha price suggests it may be time to take profits, the realized price highlights the strength of long-term conviction.
The question now: play it safe or lean into the momentum?
A profitable signal for early whales
Bitcoin’s price reached the Alpha 8 band — an area that has previously aligned with significant profit-taking by long-term holders, or “OG whales.”
This doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the rally, but it does indicate that risk-adjusted returns may be diminishing for new entrants.
Source: Alphractal
With the asset already riding strong bullish momentum, this suggests we are entering a zone where caution is prudent.
Seasoned investors may begin scaling out, while opportunistic traders might wait for a more attractive re-entry during a future correction.
Realised price keeps climbing!
Unlike in previous cycles where downturns followed a flattening or decline in Bitcoin’s realized price, the current trajectory remains decisively upward.
This shows the average cost basis of all BTC holders, and it continues to rise — a sign of sustained capital inflows and growing conviction among investors.
Source: CryptoQuant
As long as realized price trends upward, historical precedent suggests the broader market remains in a growth phase. So while short-term volatility may persist, the long-term trend is still very much intact.
Institutional demand remains intact
Bitcoin ETF flows continue to paint a bullish institutional picture.
After a volatile Q1 with periods of net outflows, recent weeks have shown renewed strength in net inflows — resulting in $5.1 million in fresh capital this past week.
Source: SoSoValue
Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded to $119.67 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s climb past $100,000.
Exit, hold or wait to enter?
With Bitcoin trading above $100K, those who accumulated below $70K may consider phased profit-taking, especially as the Alpha Price flashes caution.
For ETF investors, the trend remains constructive — holding makes sense as long as realized price climbs and SOPR stays above 1, signaling healthy profit-taking without panic selling.
Meanwhile, prospective entrants should resist FOMO and instead watch for pullbacks as smarter entry points.