- Despite Bitcoin’s decline, long-term and short-term holders remained optimistic.
- A broader market perspective suggested the potential for a price jump as the available BTC supply has notably decreased.
After reaching an all-time high of $109,114.8 on the 20th of January, just hours before Donald Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin [BTC] has declined by 2.42% to $101,308.55, according to CoinMarketCap.
AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that BTC’s decline is likely a retracement as the asset prepares for another rally, given the prevailing market sentiment.
BTC’s price momentum, sustained
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) has crossed the 0.75 threshold—a level historically associated with the “Euphoria/Greed” phase of the market cycle.
The LTH-NUPL measures unrealized profits or losses for addresses holding BTC for at least 155 days.
A rise in unrealized profit typically signals that traders are more likely to sell their assets to secure gains, indicating the market may have reached a local top.
Source: Glassnode
Despite this, market sentiment remained positive, with short-term holders driving further price increases through continued buying activity.
At press time, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio was 1.16, exceeding the 1-year trendline of 1.1. STHs are defined as addresses holding BTC for less than 155 days.
This recovery suggests that short-term holders are realizing a 16% profit above their cost basis—the price at which they acquired BTC.
In other words, this cohort’s holdings are above their purchase price and above the break-even point.
Source: Glassnode
Overall, this bullish sentiment among both long- and short-term holders showed the potential for further growth in BTC’s price as buying activity intensified across the market.
New high reached
The derivatives market was showing bullish sentiment for BTC, with the Funding Rate hitting a new monthly high of 0.0350%—its highest level since the 5th of December 2024.
Source: Glassnode
A high Funding Rate indicated that long traders were paying short traders periodically to maintain their positions, with the expectations of a price rally.
A high Funding Rate suggests that BTC’s price is likely to trend higher, as market participants align with this outlook.
Hyblock Capital’s liquidation heatmap shows BTC was at a critical juncture, targeting two key liquidity levels: $106,000 on the upside and $99,200 on the downside.
These levels often act as price magnets, drawing BTC toward them.
Source: Hyblock Capital
Given the current market sentiment, BTC could first drop to the $99,200 level before rebounding to $106,000, potentially establishing new highs in the process.
BTC market outlook remains positive
The overall outlook for the BTC market remains optimistic. Research from CryptoQuant revealed that over the past three years, exchanges have seen a massive outflow of 1 million BTC.
Source: TradingView
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
Such outflows indicated a reduced supply of BTC available for trading, leading to a demand squeeze and decreased selling pressure.
If these outflows continue—indicating more BTC is being moved off exchanges—it could drive BTC to higher price levels, as observed during similar instances in the past.
