Bitcoin halving or ETF flows: What will drive BTC to $195K?

  • BTC rallied +68% in Q1 2024, partly due to US spot BTC ETF flows.
  • Krueger estimated that BTC will hit $195K by end-2024 due to the flows.

Bitcoin [BTC] recorded an impressive Q1 2024 performance thanks to the flows from the new US spot BTC ETFs (exchange-traded funds). 

The digital gold rallied by over 68% in Q1, rising from $38.5K to $73.7K. Over the same period, the total flows from the spot ETFs hit $12 billion, and total assets crossed $59 billion. Collectively, it pushed BTC market capitalization to over $1 trillion. 

Bitcoin price driver: Halving vs ETF flows

Using historical data, Fred Krueger, a Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor, estimated that BTC could hit $195K by the end of 2024. 

Posting his analysis and assumptions on X (formerly Twitter), Krueger singled out the 2024 cycle, stating that; 

“We’re at $70K and $1.4 trillion market cap.

We’re probably getting another $50 billion in inflows this year (ETFs plus exchanges)

At a multiplier of 50, that’s $2.5 trillion.

Brings us to a $3.9 trillion market cap or $195K BTC.

I think that’s the base case for this year. It could be higher.”

Krueger stressed that the 2024 bull market cycle was primarily driven by ETF flows from traditional finance (TradFi). 

“But the real story is Bitcoin ETFs. TradFi meets Bitcoin.” 

However, he noted that BTC could extend to $500K in two years before encountering a nasty crash. 

Krueger didn’t explicitly state what would cause the crash if BTC hit $500K. However, he believed the halving event would reduce the price slump but not necessarily drive a massive rally.  

“I think the halving paves the way for the rally, as it lowers the amount that will be dumped on a 4x rally.”

Put differently, the BTC maximalist sees ETF flows as a crucial price driver compared to the supply shock caused by the halving event. 

At press time, Bitcoin slipped below $70K and retested the $68K area before reclaiming $69K. 

Rekt Capital, a crypto market analyst, claimed the move confirms a breakout after BTC recorded a weekly candlestick close of $71.2K, above the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69K. 

Next: ‘Confident’ Bitcoin investors awaiting THIS bullish trigger from BTC at $70K

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