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Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund were hoping to thwart Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona’s charge for the Champions League trophy last week, but neither team were able to spin the underdog trope successfully.
The second-leg showdowns offer very few reasons to be optimistic. PSG and Barca are weighing in as massive favourites – 1/16 and 1/500, respectively – to secure a semi-final berth.
On the surface, the betting pick appears straightforward: wager on a clear-cut favourite or follow through with the long-shot, out-of-towners. But if you look deeper, there are valuable insights to consider…
PSG vs Aston Villa: Will Luis Enrique’s men ever give up the ball?
Considering the Expected Goal (xG) statistics, the 3-1 scoreline favouring PSG seems somewhat misleading. Unai Emery’s men mustered up 0.9 xG despite scoring first with a goal from Morgan Rogers in the 35th minute. When an underdog scores first in an away leg, it’s common to see poor chance creation metrics as the team looks to protect their lead. However, there’s reason to believe that the Villains could threaten PSG’s goal at Villa Park, making for a more intriguing contest.
Move beyond xG, however, and things quickly become far less promising for the hosts. For starters, that Rogers opener came as a result of PSG left-back Nuno Mendes losing possession and falling just outside of Villa’s attacking third. That turnover sparked a counterattack, allowing Rogers to squeeze out a chance with an xG of 0.35 at the back post – where the absent Mendes should have been. Case in point, over one-third of a side’s chance creation from a one-off mistake by their opponent, isn’t a formula for lasting success.
Villa also struggled to retain or progress the ball into more dangerous areas. It’s unsurprising that PSG dominated the possession battle (75 per cent to the visitors’ 25) and completed 591 more passes than their opponent (yes, that’s not their total, that’s the difference). While some teams can skew possession stats by joylessly passing it around in their defensive third (see: every Louis Van Gaal Manchester United side), PSG had an impressive 453 touches in Villa’s attacking third during the first leg. The seven shots Villa managed to notch were a tad fortunate as they were generated from only nine touches in PSG’s penalty area.
Regardless of the scoreline, Villa Park will be thumping this Tuesday. Yet, for all the frivolities, there are some key differences to consider, chiefly in the domestic schedules. Key players like Marco Ascensio, Marcus Rashford, Youri Tielemans, Andre Onana and Rogers spent at least 65 minutes on the pitch for the Villains in last Saturday’s 3-0 victory over Southampton. In contrast, the Parisians enjoyed a weekend off, having already wrapped up the league title.
A well-rested favourite taking on an underwhelming underdog struggling to balance squad fitness across two competitions doesn’t exactly point to a goalfest. The Villains could nab a goal because football is, well, football. But it’s unlikely they have enough of the ball to score more than that.
Best bet to consider: Total Home Goals Under 1 – (6/5)
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund: A Schlotterbeck-sized hole
Unlike Villa, there’s no ominous “abandon all hope ye who enter here” sign to take note of when examining Dortmund’s first-leg stats. On the surface, Barca’s 4-0 victory seemed like a lopsided affair in terms of the scoreline and the xG tallies (3.51 to 1.13). But, wade in a little deeper, you’ll see a more complete picture of the odds around BVB’s potential fortunes.
Barcelona may have created a shade under four goals worth of chances. Surprisingly, their expected threat – which focuses on how often the ball gets played into high-value areas – was significantly lower than expected at 1.66 and barely ahead of Dortmund’s at 1.13, per MarkRstats. Niko Kovač’s men also mostly kept up with Barca in penalty box shots (14-10), deep entries (17-10) and high turnovers (5-3). While some of the data is flattering purely due to game state – teams multiple goals up tend to ease off, even one managed by Hansi Flick – the German underdogs can at least feel cautiously optimistic about their chances of scoring.
The problem for Dortmund in the second leg may not be finding good chances against Barcelona but stopping them. At the start of April, the club announced that star centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck would be out for six months due to a torn meniscus in his left knee.
In ten of their previous 13 matches, ending with a 3-1 victory against Mainz on March 30th, Dortmund gave up a goal’s worth of xG or less. In their three matches since Schlotterbeck began his spell on the sidelines, BVB have conceded seven actual goals on 7.6 xG. Defending how they have been won’t get them far, even with Barca facing similar injury upheavals.
🎙️ Niko #Kovac: „Wir müssen morgen einhundert Prozent geben. Wir müssen eine andere Mentalität als in Barcelona an den Tag legen. Nur das erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass wir das Spiel gegen einen Meisterschafts-Aspiranten gewinnen.“ #FCBBVB pic.twitter.com/xTAinH98Y7
— Borussia Dortmund (@BVB) April 11, 2025
Still, goals may be there for the taking and with Barca’s variable pressing patterns, it’s not unrealistic to say Dortmund might make this interesting at some point. On top of that, Flick’s stars may not all be on the pitch right away. The 60-year-old hasn’t gone down the traditional route of rotating heavily for La Liga games to safeguard his team’s European campaign. Indeed, over the weekend, Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal all started for La Blaugrana against Leganés.
Given Flick’s M.O., it’s unlikely he will field a weaker starting XI, much less for the second leg of a Champions League tie, but it would be wise to keep an eye on Tuesday’s lineup. Bookmakers sometimes don’t drastically change odds if squads are rotated unexpectedly. If Flick benches one or more of his core attackers in light of being four goals to the good, that could lead to some value on more than a few Dortmund bets.
Best bet to consider: Team To Score First: Dortmund – (6/4)
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(Photo of Desire Doue: Michael Steele / Getty Images)