College football midseason bowl projections: How new CFP format impacts rest of bowl season

The expanded College Football Playoff will give this sport something that previously was unrivaled by the other sport: a true Selection Sunday.

Men’s basketball offered a crescendo to its regular season by unveiling a bracket that had millions of people scribbling on paper and analyzing every 5 vs. 12 matchup. Well, college football will have its day to shine on Dec. 8 with 12 teams qualifying for the new Playoff format.

Here are the particulars:

1. A selection committee ranks the top 25 teams in order. The 12-team CFP field consists of the highest-ranked five conference champions and seven at-large teams.
2. The top four conference champions earn a first-round bye. The fifth champion and the seven at-large teams compete on four campuses on Dec. 20-21. Seeds 5-8 host seeds 9-12.
3. Four bowl games will host the quarterfinals on Dec. 31 (Fiesta) and Jan. 1 (Peach, Rose, Sugar), while the Orange and Cotton host the semifinals on Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The championship is held Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
4. But the Playoff is just one component of college football’s postseason. The other system consists of 34 bowls with locations ranging from The Bahamas to Boise, Idaho. The power conferences have deals with bowls for its non-Playoff teams, while the Group of 5 conferences have a mix of bowl contracts and ESPN Events making matchups.

There’s plenty to digest, so let’s take a look at our projections at the season’s midpoint.

CFP breakdown

Using Stewart Mandel’s most recent Playoff projections, Texas (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC) and Iowa State (Big 12) earn first-round byes. Boise State (Mountain West) is the fifth conference champion and seeded 12th.

The at-large teams qualifying (in order) are Oregon, Penn State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame and LSU. Oregon hosts Boise State, followed by LSU at Penn State, Notre Dame at Georgia and Alabama at Clemson. ESPN will draft its selections for night contests, while TNT will air the other two games.

The winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and those locations are based on the champions’ proximity and league’s historical relationship. As the SEC champion, Texas will play the Clemson-Alabama winner in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. Ohio State will face either Georgia or Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Based on proximity, ACC champion Miami will compete against the Penn State-LSU winner at the Peach Bowl. The Big 12 had a relationship with the Fiesta Bowl, and Iowa State will meet the Oregon-Boise State winner on Dec. 31.

Bowl breakdown

This bowl season is like no other, and it’s not just because of the expanded Playoff. Realignment imploded the Pac-12 Conference but it — and every other league — had two years remaining in its bowl contracts. To maintain those relationships, Pac-12-affiliated bowls agreed to select former Pac-12 teams. Their new leagues’ bowls are not allowed to choose former Pac-12 teams.

It’s confusing, so here’s an example: The Alamo Bowl has the top selection for the Big 12 and Pac-12 after the College Football Playoff. It can select all 16 teams in the Big 12, but only 12 are considered for its Big 12 slot. The four former Pac-12 teams in the Big 12 (along with the four Big Ten newcomers, two ACC newcomers and two Pac-12 holdovers) are permitted for the Pac-12’s spot. What happens in San Antonio also creates a ripple effect with the other bowls.

Say the Alamo Bowl wants to select new Big 12 member Colorado and Deion Sanders with its Pac-12 choice. But perhaps the top Big 12 teams available are Kansas State and Texas Tech, and both of those teams played Colorado during the regular season. Unless it wants a rematch, the Alamo Bowl may opt for USC from the Big Ten or Washington State, which remains in the new-look Pac-12.

Or, the Alamo Bowl could pair Colorado with BYU. But that creates issues for the Big 12 because the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando is the next bowl in its lineup. If Kansas State has the Big 12’s best record outside of CFP selection Iowa State, it would get bypassed for a second time, because the Wildcats appeared in the Pop Tarts Bowl last year.

While the bowls have selection autonomy with its Big 12 agreement, leagues can influence their choices to ensure certain teams get prime positions. That happened last year when the ACC pressured its first-tier bowl partners to take its top teams like N.C. State and Louisville and bypass non-football member Notre Dame.

Each league is different. The SEC decides which teams go where in consultation with its teams and the bowls. The Big Ten allows the bowls to draft their team but only after multiple rounds of conversation.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)