College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Why the SEC could stuff the bracket

The Bubble speaks with a drawl.

When the smoke cleared on Week 12, BYU’s home loss to Kansas eliminated the Big 12’s chances of landing an at-large bid. Louisville’s loss at Stanford dinged SMU’s and Miami’s resumes enough that whatever small chance the ACC had of being a two-bid league might have shrunk to zero.

Meanwhile, in the SEC?

Georgia stayed alive by beating Tennessee and dragging the Vols squarely onto the bubble. But the Vols played the Bulldogs close enough between the hedges to keep their own resume Playoff-worthy.

That was a week after Ole Miss routed Georgia in Oxford to keep the Rebels’ at-large hopes alive.

The SEC keeps stacking bubble teams, with six teams in the top 15 with two losses or fewer, and everyone outside the Big Ten keeps popping their own bubble with ugly losses.

Here’s the bad news for any other teams eyeing a chance to sneak onto the right side of the bubble: Texas and Texas A&M are the only teams among that group of six teams that still face one another.

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And their regular-season finale and resumption of a hostile, high-stakes rivalry that’s been on ice since 2011 is between the only two SEC teams with one loss in conference play. A loss would likely eliminate the No. 15 Aggies, but Texas — at No. 3 — would stay alive with a loss despite having the most modest resume of any of the SEC’s bubble teams. Texas has the best record in the SEC, but zero CFP Top 25 wins.

If any of the league’s other teams play their way out of the field, it’ll have to come via a shocking upset, which the SEC has mostly avoided this year, save Ole Miss’ home loss to Kentucky, Tennessee’s ill-fated trip to Arkansas and Alabama’s Diego Pavia-fueled loss at Vanderbilt.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart cut a selection committee diss track after Saturday’s win, three weeks before it decides whether his team is worthy of a Playoff spot.

“I don’t know what they’re looking for. I really don’t,” Smart said. “I wish they could really define the criteria. I wish they could do the eyeball test where they come down here and look at the people we’re playing against and look at them. You can’t see that stuff on TV, and so I don’t know what they look for.”

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I understand Smart’s complaints relative to Georgia being ranked No. 12 last week after playing such a difficult schedule, but the committee has shown the SEC plenty of respect.

The SEC is in position to cram the bracket full of teams. It helps that last week and this week, some of those contenders are playing their customary fourth nonconference “game” that’s come under so much criticism for years. Alabama played Mercer on Saturday. Texas A&M hosted New Mexico State. This week, Georgia will play UMass and Tennessee will host UTEP.

How much are the SEC’s bubble fortunes because of the league’s stubborn refusal to add a ninth conference game? The Big Ten and Big 12 play nine conference games. The ACC also plays eight. One more conference game would be one more opportunity for the SEC’s teams to eliminate themselves. Surely, at least one or two matchups on the conference schedule would have come between the contenders.

Common sentiment around the SEC is if the price was right from the league’s TV partners, it would add a ninth league game despite the frequent protestations from coaches.

But taking up more than a third of a 12-team field might be plenty of reason to shrug off the ninth game, no matter the price.

The SEC’s refusal to cede to ugly upsets is a big reason the bubble has taken on such a distinct Southern flair. But its long-standing, controversial schedule quirks have helped, too.

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Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.

ACC

SMU survived Boston College and avoided being dragged into a possible tiebreaker with Clemson and Miami that might have kept the Mustangs from earning an opportunity to play for a Playoff spot.

The bad news for the league at large is Louisville’s loss to Stanford costs Miami and SMU a Top 25 win after the Cardinals will likely fall out of this week’s Playoff rankings.

The ACC title game loser already had a very small chance of making the field. Now, whoever comes up short in Charlotte, N.C., seems like it may have zero shot to be selected as one of the seven at-large bids.

Big Ten

It’s time to put up or shut up for Indiana. The Hoosiers signed Curt Cignetti to an extension, and now they go to Columbus for a game that may define their season. A win would all but assure them a bid in the Playoff and put only Purdue between them and a Big Ten title shot. Would a close loss be enough to keep the Hoosiers on the right side of the bubble? Only the committee knows. An Indiana win would be the best outcome for all four teams to earn a bid.

Oregon survived a scare in Madison, but the Ducks will hold onto their No. 1 ranking.

Big 12

The only predictable thing about the Big 12 is it’s been the most unpredictable conference by far. Just go take a gander at the preseason poll. BYU’s loss to Kansas all but eliminated any shot the Big 12 had of landing an at-large bid with two weeks left to play in the regular season.

And this week in Tempe, Arizona State can play its way into the Playoff picture by handing the Cougars a second loss and inching closer to the Big 12 title game despite being picked last in the conference in the preseason. Colorado will face red-hot Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium after the Jayhawks beat Iowa State and BYU in consecutive weeks.

SEC

The SEC still has six legitimate candidates for at-large bids, and the team with the thinnest resume —Texas — is ranked the highest. That’s welcome security for the league to be more than well-represented when the first 12-team bracket is revealed.

Group of 5

Boise State was tied with San Jose State deep into the third quarter, but unless Army beats Notre Dame this week in Yankee Stadium, there’s no value in style points for Boise. If the Broncos keep winning, they’ll be the Group of 5 representative in the bracket.

Washington State’s loss to New Mexico will probably drop it out of the Top 25 and put a ding in Boise State’s resume, but it’s unlikely it will matter. The only way that changes is if Notre Dame can’t handle Captain America Bryson Daily and Army.

Others

The impact of the loss to Northern Illinois has basically evaporated. The ACC and Big 12’s at-large bid hopes have, too, and cleared the way for Notre Dame to climb the seed line as the wins have piled up.

It’s possible the Irish could still make the field with a loss to Army, but if Marcus Freeman’s team wins that game and beats USC, it’s absolutely going to host a Playoff game in South Bend.

 (Photo of Tennessee coach Josh Heupel and Georgia coach Kirby Smart: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)