- From ‘pro-crypto’ to ‘no crypto,’ Trump’s shift has thrown Bitcoin into the fire.
- Now, it’s a fight between caution and conviction.
Bitcoin[BTC] has kicked off 2025 with a mix of volatility and resilience. Through two Fed clashes, a CPI report, two memecoin launches, Trump’s return, and a bold SEC announcement, BTC remains steady above $100K – a true show of its strength.
Yet, the future is far from certain. Trump’s shift from his ‘pro-crypto’ stance has left crypto sidelined in his latest executive orders, putting BTC in a tug-of-war.
Now, investors face a crucial choice: Play it safe with “caution,” or double down with “conviction”?
Which side will dominate?
In crypto, every action sparks a reaction. The TRUMP memecoin is down 44% at press time – and it’s no accident. The market is reacting to Trump’s silence on crypto in the 42 executive orders he signed on his first day in office.
Bitcoin isn’t escaping this shift. Instead of a “Trump pump” sending BTC past $110K, momentum has slowed. Now, investors are playing it two ways: waiting for the perfect “dip” to jump in or HODLing through the ups and downs, confident a rally is coming.
The 3.56% jump in Bitcoin after the SEC’s first ‘pro-crypto’ move shows that conviction is still strong. But how long will it last? With the market’s volatility and Trump’s lack of action on crypto, uncertainty is creeping in, and long-term HODLers are starting to second-guess.
Source: BGeometrics
Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders has dropped to a three-year low, falling from 16.3 million to 14.5 million. This is a sharp 11% drop since last year’s election. These investors have cashed in on solid profits, with returns as high as 50%.
This is concerning because while short-term holders aim for quick gains, long-term holders keep Bitcoin stable. If they begin to lose confidence, the risk of a Bitcoin crash becomes very real.
The market could face a major shakeup if the newly elected government doesn’t deliver on its promises. This could tip the scale from ‘conviction’ to ‘caution’.
Bitcoin’s search for a catalyst
As LTHs lose confidence, the market needs a new catalyst to absorb the increasing liquidity.
Despite waning Trump sentiment, BTC ETFs are seeing billions in inflows. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) keeps its buying spree going strong.
Source: Farside Investors
Institutional capital is keeping BTC steady above $100K, holding firm on conviction, while retail investors fuel the momentum, driven by FOMO.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
But time is running out. The crypto market is still betting on Trump’s promises, and with the FOMC meeting just a week away, the stakes are high.
If no action is taken, major volatility could send BTC tumbling below $100K.
