Edmonton Oilers' search for ideal Darnell Nurse partner marches on

Since he arrived in the NHL as a highly touted rookie in 2015, Darnell Nurse has been a lightning rod topic for Edmonton Oilers fans.

His size, rugged style, exceptional skating and penchant for scoring an above-average number of even-strength goals raised expectations from the beginning of his NHL career.

The results have been uneven. Over Nurse’s nine seasons in the NHL, he has faced tough opposition and delivered well.

It has been deemed as not enough by the paying public.

As new management and coaching tackle the ‘Nurse partner’ issue, it’s a good time to discuss who is best suited to play with Edmonton’s big No. 25.

Nurse with a shutdown defence partner

Nurse and Cody Ceci played much of the past three seasons together, with a large swath of their five-on-five minutes against elite competition.

Ceci is best described as a shutdown type, bringing size and grit, the ability to win battles and some offensive acumen. He lacks offensive creativity and is not an exceptional passer.

The two men performed well overall (including all five-on-five minutes and all levels of competition) when on the ice with captain Connor McDavid. What about those other minutes?

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

These are combined totals over the last three seasons.

Fans may be surprised by these revealing numbers, especially those who accused the two defenders of pounding the puck square instead of sending it to productive or safe places.

The Nurse-Ceci duo got exposed in small sample sizes and against top competition — two factors that come into play in the postseason. It’s a difficult thing to come to grips with because the problem (single events can be extremely important) suggests that trusting analytics numbers has lesser value.

The truth is, the Nurse-Ceci pairing was effective in the regular season.

The best Nurse came in 2021-22. According to Puck IQ, when playing with Ceci, Nurse delivered 57 percent Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi or expected goals) and a performance that was 7.5 percent clear of teammates relative to performance. That’s an outstanding total, with or without McDavid.

In 2023-24, Nurse-Ceci was still strong (51.2 percent Dangerous Fenwick) against elites. But the improved defensive group that played when the duo was off the ice meant the numbers relative to teammates (-6.65 percent) were subpar for the season.

Edmonton improved, and Nurse-Ceci ran in place.

Nurse with a puck-mover

The best puck-mover gifted to Nurse over the years has been Evan Bouchard. The two men play for the same team, so it’s worth looking at the totals over the past three seasons.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

This is a terrific fit, with or without the captain. The Nurse-Bouchard expected goals, shot percentage and Corsi totals are pristine. This is a strong pairing, despite the goal share.

Based on this comparison of Ceci and Bouchard, one would think the best move is to return Bouchard to the Nurse pairing.

Here’s the problem, and it’s a deal killer for Nurse-Bouchard.

McDavid and Bouchard since 2021 outscore opponents at a 65.5 percent rate when Nurse is not on the ice with them. It’s a stunning total and suggests Nurse is a drag on results.

So, where does the coaching staff (and management) go from here?

The internal options

The exits of Ceci and Philip Broberg open up opportunities for three men who should see NHL action with Edmonton this coming season.

Ty Emberson has just 30 games of NHL experience and appears to be a two-way type who can play a significant role. That is reflected in his average ice time (18:33) early in his NHL career.

Troy Stecher is a puck-mover with a wealth of NHL experience (494 NHL games, averaging 17:56 minutes per night for his career). He is a good skater and passer, lacks size (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) and is the closest comparable to Bouchard on the roster.

Josh Brown is a rugged shutdown type, although the ruffian edge he brings is the main attraction. He has played 290 NHL games, averaging 14:24 per game.

Here are the numbers for each player at five-on-five during the 2023-24 season. Stecher’s totals are from his time with the Arizona Coyotes and exclude his minutes in Edmonton.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Emberson averaged the largest number of minutes for the San Jose Sharks — who were badly in need of an upgrade, which Emberson provided — at five-on-five. The numbers when he was off the ice last season are telling, and suggest his resume (smart two-way player who can make plays with the puck) could be a good match for Nurse. The downbeat? Lack of NHL experience.

Stecher has lots of experience and that’s a major positive. He also possesses defensive ability but would be closer in style to a player like Ethan Bear, to name a former partner of Nurse’s. Nurse-Bear delivered a 47 percent goal share from 2017-20 on a team that managed 45 percent of the goals with the tandem off the ice. The correlation between Stecher and Bear is strictly style, but it does indicate a smaller player can succeed with Nurse.

Brown averaged less than 13 minutes a night at five-on-five. That is third-pairing usage. The numbers above also tell us he was running luck with a 50 percent goal share five-on-five. His expected goal share is a concern when considering a role on a Stanley Cup contender.

Possible external options

Rumours have the team contemplating the addition of a veteran before training camp. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff connected Tyson Barrie, Justin Schultz and Kevin Shattenkirk to Edmonton. Here’s a look at those three names, plus personal favourite Gustav Lindstrom. These are totals from last season, including Lindstrom’s numbers with the Anaheim Ducks (and excluding Montreal Canadiens games).

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Initially, an Oilers fan might roll their eyes at the thought of Barrie or Schultz returning for another turn in Edmonton. In truth, there is some quality here.

Schultz is not the player you remember, but he’s found a way to extend his NHL career and is still getting significant power-play time. He had effective underlying numbers when playing with partner Brian Dumoulin, with the pairing delivering 50+ percent totals on shots, Corsi, Fenwick and expected goals five-on-five. The actual goal share (44 percent) may be obscuring Schultz’s true level of ability at this point in his career. The Oilers might want to find out if that low goal percentage was bad luck.

Barrie struggled with the Nashville Predators, even when playing with brilliant veteran Roman Josi. In his time away from Barrie, Josi shone like a diamond. Puck IQ tells us Barrie was effective only against the soft parade, and even then did not dominate.

Shattenkirk has some outstanding offensive numbers on the power play and owned a superior five-on-five expected goal share (53 to 49) compared to his Boston Bruins teammates a year ago.

On the other hand, Puck IQ shows the Bruins coaching staff actively faded Shattenkirk against elite competition. That’s not the kind of profile that would fit the ask of the Nurse pairing in the year to come.

Lindstrom remains unsigned despite fine work on the left coast with the Ducks. He often played five-on-five with Urho Vaakanainen in 2023-24, the two men running ahead of the other Ducks across all major categories. It’s a complete mystery why he remains unsigned this late in the summer.

Options

Based on our quick look at Nurse’s best defensive partners in terms of style, the most attractive internal options are Stecher and Emberson.

Stecher is a veteran, more capable of the spotlight that will shine winterlong on the Nurse duo. Emberson is a quality young player who could grow into the role.

And there are two other intriguing internal options.

Schultz can move the puck and is a veteran. He remains a chaos blue defensively, and gifting Nurse with that kind of skill may spell disaster. Despite that fact, those underlying totals from last year might mean Schultz is worth a look in camp.

Lindstrom would be a safe defensive partner who lacks offensive flair.

Oilers general manager Stan Bowman is apparently casting about to find possible solutions for a major roster pressure point. When all is said and done, the smart play is Stecher with Emberson growing into the role.

The Oilers could use improved play from Nurse in 2024-25, that’s a given. The defenceman who lines up with him and the style they play matters based on Nurse’s past.

Bouchard is an ideal fit, but he is unavailable despite being on the Oilers roster. Welcome to Edmonton, Stan Bowman.

(Photo: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)