Every key playoff, No. 1 pick scenario and odds for NFL's Week 18

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Today, we’re covering everything that matters after a busy Sunday, including playoff scenarios, Sam Darnold’s future and No. 1 pick odds.

Playoff implications for Week 18

Last night’s most impressive play was Michael Penix Jr.’s dart to Kyle Pitts on fourth-and-goal while down seven in crunch time.

Penix to KP!!!!!! What?!?!

NBC | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/TdAGEbmeUt

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 30, 2024

But the second-time starter’s first NFL passing touchdown wasn’t enough, as one of the best rookie quarterback duels in recent memory saw Penix hampered by Atlanta’s awful timeout management* and outplayed by Jayden Daniels, who rushed for 127 yards and threw for 227 more as the Commanders won in overtime, 30-24.

* The Falcons had two timeouts, but chose to let 17 of the final 33 seconds tick before finishing regulation with a spare timeout. Yuck. Here’s the full sequence:

The Falcons win this game if Raheem Morris uses a timeout here… instead, 17 unnecessary seconds run off the clock 🤦‍♂️pic.twitter.com/AP499qpf02

— Kicks (@kicks) December 30, 2024

Now we’re already going to turn the page, since it’s that time of year. With 12 of 14 playoff teams set, let’s look ahead to the final weekend’s postseason implications:

Only one NFC team should rest their starters:

• That’s the Eagles, as their 41-7 win yesterday over the Cowboys locked Philadelphia into the No. 2 seed, removing incentive for HC Nick Sirianni to play his starters in Week 18 against the 3-13 Giants. But with Saquon Barkley just 101 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s season rushing record, Brooks Kubena details the factors Sirianni must consider.

Five NFC teams are still playing for higher seeds, with nothing that can be changed by tonight’s outcome (the Lions are 3.5-point road favorites against the 49ers, per BetMGM):

• Sunday night sees those Lions host the Vikings in the first regular-season game in NFL history between two 13-plus-win teams. The winner receives a first-round bye and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. The loser drops to fifth, then needs to win at either Tampa Bay or Atlanta before likely traveling to a rematch against the No. 1 seed.

• The Rams began the year 1-4 but clinched the NFC West yesterday thanks to Washington’s win, which eliminated Seattle (9-7) due to a tiebreaker. To maintain the No. 3 seed, L.A. needs to win against the Seahawks (or for the Bucs to lose to New Orleans).

• The Commanders‘ clutch victory over the Falcons could spare them from a Wild Card game in Philadelphia, against whom they lost in Week 11 and nearly again in Week 16 (despite the Eagles then fielding a backup quarterback).

• The Packers‘ 27-25 loss to Minnesota yesterday pushed them into the seventh seed. They’ll travel to Philly in the Wild Card round unless they beat Chicago as 9.5-point home favorites next week and the Commanders lose as three-point road favorites against a battered Dallas.

Win and you’re in: 

• The Buccaneers would clinch the NFC South with a victory against the 5-11 Saints, against whom they are currently 14-point favorites, or a loss by the Falcons (8-8), who are 7.5-point home favorites over the Panthers (4-12). If the Bucs win and the Rams lose, Tampa Bay avoids a Wild Card matchup against the Vikings-Lions loser, instead facing either the Commanders or Packers.

But a Buccaneers loss would mean …

• Hope for Atlanta, which would then only need a win against the Panthers to finish with an identical 9-8 record as Tampa Bay, against whom the Falcons own the tiebreaker.

For more NFC, Mike Sando and NFL execs rank the playoff teams. Hint: The Vikings are No. 1.

The AFC is a different story:

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans are locked into their respective seeds regardless of next week’s outcome. They could sit players:

• Based on the history of Andy Reid, Kansas City will sit Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and other key starters, giving them 24 days rest (!!) before their first playoff game. Backup Carson Wentz would start in a nevertheless pivotal matchup against Denver (more below).

• Buffalo‘s Josh Allen said yesterday that locking up the No. 2 seed “gives us an option to give guys rest” next week against the 3-13 Patriots. If he sits, was his three-touchdown, zero-turnover performance in yesterday’s 40-14 blowout of the Jets (4-12) enough to clinch the MVP award? He remains the favorite.

• The Texans have lost five of their last eight, so they should seek positive momentum by playing their starters at least for the first half against the 3-13 Titans. This aligns with C.J. Stroud’s comments that they’ve “got to finish this year the right way against Tennessee, and hopefully by that time we’re in a groove and rolling when the playoffs come.”

Meanwhile, still playing for a higher seed:

• The Ravens‘ game against Cleveland moved into the Saturday afternoon window, to be followed by Bengals-Steelers. Since a Steelers loss — or a Ravens win (they are 17.5-point favorites on BetMGM) — would give Baltimore the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed, the Ravens might’ve been able to rest starters if the Steelers had played first.

• Those Steelers enter their home matchup against Cincinnati on a three-game losing streak. If the Ravens win beforehand, the Steelers will know they can’t jump to the No. 3 seed. Still, a win against Cincy means the Steelers visit Houston in the Wild Card round, whereas a loss could drop them to the No. 6 seed — and a matchup against the much tougher Ravens — if the Chargers win.

• In turn, the Chargers are 5.5-point favorites over the 5-11 Raiders in Week 18, when a win (and Steelers loss) could allow them to leapfrog Pittsburgh to finish with the No. 5 seed and set up a potential rematch against the Chiefs. As it stands, the Wild Card round could feature this season’s second Harbaugh Bowl.

One team can guarantee itself the final spot:

• A win for Denver against the Chiefs’ backups — the Broncos are nine-point favorites — guarantees Sean Payton’s team a playoff spot. But don’t expect KC to roll over: Andy Reid rested his starting quarterback in the final weekends of 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2023, winning two of those games and taking the playoff-bound 2013 Chargers to overtime.

A Broncos loss would mean …

• The Dolphins (8-8) could clinch a bid with a win. Incredible, considering this team was 2-6 at midseason. They are currently 2.5-point road favorites over the Jets.

• The Bengals (8-8) would need a win in Pittsburgh and a Dolphins loss to miraculously make the playoffs for the third time in Joe Burrow’s three healthy seasons. These winners of four straight games are 2.5-point road favorites against the Steelers despite losing 44-38 in their last matchup.

Below, we’re looking at new No. 1 pick scenarios after the Giants’ shocking win. But first, Dianna shares the latest from Minnesota:

What Dianna’s Hearing: The Vikes want Darnold back

The Vikings don’t need to get too far ahead of themselves — they are about to play for the top seed in the NFC. But a decision at quarterback has been looming all season, and a team source made it clear when we spoke last week: In 2025, Minnesota wants to bring back Sam Darnold, who had a 377-yard, three-touchdown game against the Packers yesterday.

Darnold is playing on a one-year, $10 million deal this year, and he’s in line to perhaps quadruple that annual value on his next contract. The franchise tag is an option for the Vikings, if they can’t work out a long-term deal.

Retaining Darnold wouldn’t mean J.J. McCarthy is no longer seen as a future franchise QB (just look at Jordan Love’s career). But the Vikings aren’t ignoring what Darnold has accomplished this season, and judging by the celebration after yesterday’s win over Green Bay, the locker room would be on board with it too.

Back to you, Jacob.

No. 1 pick order, scenarios in Week 18

Meanwhile, the NFL Draft order changed significantly just one day after Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders — a potential No. 1 draftee — was spotted with New York Giants themed-cleats at his locker. (His team then got flattened by BYU.)

Those Giants won their first home game of the season, a 45-33 shootout against the playoff-hopeful Colts on a baffling Sunday when the Jaguars and Raiders also won. Here’s the updated draft order:

No. 1: Patriots (3-13). Their strength of schedule gives them the edge, but a win against Buffalo’s backups next week could drop them multiple spots. If they remain at No. 1, I’d expect them to trade down with a QB-needy team. If not, it would be New England’s first No. 1 pick since Drew Bledsoe in 1993.

No. 2: Titans (3-13). This could also change, with Tennessee currently a four-point home favorite against the Texans, who could be resting starters. These Titans beat a full Texans team in Week 12. Still, it could be the franchise’s first No. 1 since Earl Campbell in 1978.

No. 3: Browns (3-13). I’d expect Cleveland to lose to the highly incentivized Ravens. This could mean the Browns draft first for the third time since 2017. And yes, they are starting from scratch at QB.

No. 4: Giants (3-13). Depending on whether the Eagles sit starters in Week 18, we could see the Giants pull off another upset. They are currently 3.5-point road underdogs against Philadelphia. One way or another, I’d expect them to move up for a quarterback.

No. 5: Jaguars (4-12). Yesterday’s 20-13 win over Tennessee dropped them to fifth, though they could return to a higher slot, as they are 5.5-point road underdogs against the Colts in Week 18.

No. 6: Jets (4-12). A loss to Miami this week could mean the Jets draft in the top three … after entering the year with Super Bowl expectations and remaining relatively healthy throughout. It’s somehow Robert Saleh’s fault, right? Yikes.

No. 7: Panthers (4-12). Despite Bryce Young’s continued improvement, one of the worst losses in franchise history (yesterday’s 48-14 drubbing by the Buccaneers) reminded the world that this is a bad team. This early pick should improve a defense that is likely to finish as one of six in NFL history to allow 500-plus points, one reason DC Ejiro Evero’s future is in question.

No. 8: Raiders (4-12). On a two-game win streak, Las Vegas could save HC Antonio Pierce’s job with another next week. That might not be a good thing, as he’s struggled with game management and staffing — he fired his offensive coordinator, offensive line coach and quarterbacks coach midseason.

No. 9: Bears (4-12). On the bright side, the worst year in modern Chicago sports history is over, and the Bears should hold three picks in the top 40, thanks to the Bryce Young trade in 2023.

No. 10: Saints (5-11). A motivated Buccaneers team should beat up on one of the most injured teams in the NFL, and the Saints should be drafting in the top 10 for the first time since 2008.

🎧 Listen: Week 17 recap on “The Athletic Football Show” podcast.

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(Photo: Michael Reaves, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)