The Baltimore Ravens have been playing catch-up in the AFC North since mid-September when they were mired in an 0-2 start. The Pittsburgh Steelers won their first three games, dropped back to the pack with two losses and then rattled off seven victories in eight games, including a win over Baltimore in Week 11.
When the Ravens returned from their Week 14 bye, they found themselves two games behind the Steelers with just four regular-season games to play. With three games in 11 days, their schedule was daunting and their margin for error was slim.
Yet, after Saturday’s 34-17 win over the Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens have a legitimate chance to repeat as AFC North champions. All they have to do is keep winning … and hope the Steelers have another loss in them.
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Both teams are 10-5 with two regular-season games remaining, but the Steelers still have the edge based on a few of the notable tiebreaker scenarios. Pittsburgh has a better conference record (7-3) than Baltimore (6-4). It also has a better record in common games, with a 7-3 mark compared to Baltimore’s 7-4.
Seemingly in the Ravens’ favor, however, is the Steelers have a tougher two final opponents. Baltimore will play on Christmas Day at the Houston Texans (9-6) and then finish the regular season at home against the Cleveland Browns (3-12). The Steelers are home on Christmas Day against the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) before hosting the still-alive and desperate Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) in Week 18.
The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot for the 12th time in John Harbaugh’s 17 seasons as head coach. However, there was only a tepid acknowledgment of that in the locker room following Saturday’s game. Their first goal every season is to win the AFC North, which guarantees at least one home playoff game. There’s still work to do to accomplish that.
Ravens players probably aren’t aware of the myriad tiebreaker scenarios that could come into play over the next two weeks. The Ravens’ victory over the Steelers guaranteed that the division wouldn’t be decided until the final week of the regular season.
“I have no clue how it works out. I mean, we’re just trying to win all the games that we can, and if we get home games in the playoffs or not, we’re trying to win those games, too,” safety Kyle Hamilton said after the Ravens’ walk-through late Sunday afternoon. “At the end of the day, whatever cards we’re dealt, whatever cards we end up playing ourselves into, it doesn’t really matter. We’re going to do what we do.”
The division race isn’t in the Ravens’ full control. If both teams win their final two games and finish 12-5, the Steelers would be crowned the AFC North champions on the third tiebreaker criteria — winning percentage against common opponents. That’s because the first two tiebreakers — head to head and winning percentage in division games — would be a wash. The Ravens and Steelers split the season series. If both win their Week 18 games, they’d finish with identical 4-2 records within the division. Then, the tiebreaking measures would move on to the team’s win percentage against common opponents.
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The Ravens and Steelers would have played the Bengals and Browns twice, and the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs once. If both teams win out, the Steelers would finish with a 9-3 record (losses to Dallas, Cleveland and Philadelphia) against those teams, while the Ravens would be 8-4 (losses to Las Vegas, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Kansas City). In that case, advantage Steelers.
Still, there are routes for the Ravens to win the division. Let’s examine the possibilities.
If Ravens beat Texans and Browns, they’d need …
The Steelers to fall to either Kansas City or Cincinnati. This is the most obvious scenario. If one of the 10-5 teams goes 2-0 and the other goes 1-1 or 0-2, there will be no tiebreaker needed. By the time the Ravens kick off in Houston Wednesday afternoon, Baltimore will know if it controls its own AFC North destiny because the Steelers play the Chiefs in the earlier game on Christmas.
The Ravens will be favored, and probably heavily against the Browns, in both of their final two regular-season games, although the Texans are a quality team that has already clinched the AFC South. The Steelers, meanwhile, are underdogs at home against the Chiefs, who will be looking to wrap up the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. The Bengals should be pretty motivated in Week 18, too. They’ve yet to be eliminated from the playoff mix and have a chance to draw even closer by beating the Broncos this weekend.
If Ravens beat Texans and lose to Browns, they’d need …
The Steelers to lose to both the Chiefs and Bengals. Week 18 is far more critical for the Steelers and Ravens than the Christmas games are. That’s because winning percentage in the division is the second tiebreak criteria and the first determining tiebreaker that could change over the next two weeks (head to head can’t). One team winning its Week 18 game against a division foe and the other losing would potentially be a decisive swing. That would leave one team’s division record at 4-2 and the other’s at 3-3.
Regardless of what happens this week, the Ravens would win the division if they beat the Browns and the Steelers lose to the Bengals in Week 18. The only scenario featuring 1-1 finishes that would favor the Ravens would be their one loss coming to Houston and the Steelers’ one loss coming against Cincinnati.
If Ravens lose to Texans and beat Browns, they’d need …
Pittsburgh to lose to Cincinnati. If this is how it plays out, both teams would finish with 11-6 records, but the Ravens would be 4-2 in the AFC North and the Steelers would be 3-3. That would mean a division repeat for Baltimore. The Steelers cannot clinch the division on Wednesday even if they win against Kansas City and the Ravens lose in Houston. They’d still enter Week 18 needing either a win over the Bengals or a Ravens second straight loss to Cleveland.
The Ravens and Bengals have developed a pretty heated rivalry in recent years, but Baltimore could find itself in a position where it will need Cincinnati’s help to leapfrog Pittsburgh for the division title.
If Ravens lose to both Texans and Browns, they’d need …
To start preparing for a road AFC wild-card game, potentially against the second-seeded Bills in cold and probably snowy Buffalo. That’s obviously not where the Ravens want to be, but there would be no path to the division title if they can’t at least get one win against the Texans or Browns.
Finishing the regular season with two losses would leave Baltimore at 10-7 heading into the playoffs and would also put the Ravens at risk of getting bypassed by the Chargers and Broncos, who are both currently 9-6, in the wild-card hierarchy. If the Ravens don’t win the division, they’d almost certainly want to finish with the fifth seed. That would most likely set up a rematch with the Texans or Round 3 with Pittsburgh in the wild-card game.
(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
