2025 is almost here, so I’m back with some predictions (of varying confidence levels) for the new year.
Supremely confident predictions — 75%+ confidence
Donte DiVincenzo will stay hot and have a strong second half
It took him a while to get going, but DiVincenzo is suddenly red-hot for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s made 22-of-45 triples over his past six games while providing some extra value with averages of 16.8 points, 3.2 assists and 1.0 steals. Those numbers are much more in line with what he did for the Knicks last season, so it seems he’s found his comfort zone with his new team and is primed for a strong second half.
Zach Edey is ready to make a strong case for Rookie of the Year honors
After missing nearly a month of action due to an ankle sprain, Edey has been coming on strong lately, with 12.0 points, a beefy 11.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in 27 minutes per game over his past four games before sitting out Sunday’s game due to a concussion.
Injuries are also piling up for Memphis, with Santi Aldama (who’s been having a brilliant season) considered week-to-week with an ankle sprain and Marcus Smart also sidelined with a finger injury. With more minutes coming his way, Edey should gain more and more confidence as he heads into the second half of the season. With the rest of his rookie cohorts not putting up much of a fight, look for Edey to become the ROY frontrunner once again.
The Goga Bitadze train will start slowing down soon
Let’s be real: Bitadze has far exceeded everyone’s expectations over the past two months. He was rock solid in November, but he’s been an absolute beast in December, averaging 12.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks. Those are massive numbers for a free-agent pickup, but the days of Goga being a Top 40 fantasy player will soon be over.
With Paolo Banchero set to return from injury soon, something around 9.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game for Bitadze seems more realistic moving forward. You’ll still want to hang on to him in deeper leagues, but the timing is right to sell high.
Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis will play like we expected them to
Kuminga averaged just 13.5 points and 1.1 threes in less than 23 mpg over his first 17 games this season. In 12 games since, he’s posted 21.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.4 treys on a solid 48% field-goal shooting in 31 mpg.
It’s been even more drastic for TJD. He averaged a meager 7.3 points, 4.8 boards and 0.7 blocks in less than 17 mpg over his first 25 games, but a strong 14.0 points (on 66% FG shooting), 9.0 boards and 1.8 blocks over his past five games.
Hopefully optimistic predictions — 50%+ confidence
Paul George will heat up soon and start looking like the player we’re used to
George’s 3-point shot has been way off this season. He’s shooting just 31% from 3-point range while scoring just 15.8 ppg. Compare that to his previous nine seasons, during which he averaged 23.6 ppg on 39% 3P shooting. He hasn’t looked like his normal self but has some good excuses.
A couple of hyperextended knee injuries have resulted in him playing at less than 100% health, not to mention the bulky knee brace he had to wear for most of his games thus far. Also, consider that Joel Embiid has been in and out of the lineup all season and that Embiid’s presence drastically changes how the 76ers run their offense. With George healthy and his on-court rapport with Embiid likely to improve, it won’t be long before he shakes off all the rust.
Alex Sarr will be a reliable fantasy starter for the rest of this season
If you’re like me, you may not have noticed how much better Sarr has been lately. Of course, missing a few games in recent weeks hasn’t helped his cause. But let’s take Sarr’s numbers over his first 14 games and compare them to his 12 games since then:
- First 14 games: 25.8 minutes, 9.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 0.9 threes, 35% FG, 20% 3P
- Next 12 games: 29.3 minutes, 13.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.1 threes, 45% FG, 42% 3P
He’s also contributing a solid 2.2 assists and 1.8 blocks per game for the season, numbers that held steady even while his shot was wildly erratic. Let’s hope he doesn’t hit the dreaded “rookie wall” because Sarr has excellent production potential for the rest of this season.
Noah Clowney will be a Top 120 fantasy player from here on out
Lots of people had Clowney pegged as a breakout player for this season, but he got off to a rough start, shooting 30% from the field in October, missing a couple of weeks due to a sprained ankle and playing 20-plus minutes just three times over his first 17 games played. Almost everyone who drafted Clowney ended up dropping him early on.
But we’ve known all along the Nets would be focused on their future, which explains why they’ve already traded away Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith. The net result has been Clowney playing nearly 30 mpg over his past six games, averaging 13.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.0 threes.
The surprising stat is zero blocked shots in those six games, but you should still be optimistic there — he swatted 1.6 shots per 36 minutes last season. With confidence in his 3-point shot and lots of minutes coming his way, Clowney should be a reliable fantasy forward the rest of the way.
Rookies who’ve barely played thus far are going to make a fantasy impact
Entering Monday’s games, 28 rookies have played 200-plus total minutes this season. Here are three who’ve played less and who I expect to have some roster value at some point this season: Kel’el Ware, Jaylon Tyson and Devin Carter.
After getting a bunch of DNPs, Ware has finally cracked Miami’s rotation, and his per-minute production has been excellent. Over his past five games, he’s averaged 6.0 points on 70% FG shooting, with 4.4 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in just 13.6 mpg (imagine if he can get up to 20 mpg).
Tyson has played big minutes just once this season, and he made the most of it with a stellar performance — 20 points, 11 boards, 7 assists, 2 steals. With Cleveland still steamrolling opponents, Tyson should get more opportunities in the second half of the season.
And Carter is preparing to make his NBA debut after missing multiple months due to shoulder surgery. With the Kings falling in the standings, look for them to turn to their rookie guard sooner rather than later, with the hope of gaining some much-needed energy on both ends of the floor.
Wishful thinking predictions — 25%+ confidence
Scoot Henderson will gain confidence and finish the season strong
I wish I had more confidence in this prediction, but I simply haven’t seen many encouraging signs from Scoot this season. You can tell he’s often trying to process too much at once, meaning the game still hasn’t slowed down for him. His footwork also tends to be sloppy. And for someone with his quickness and athleticism, he still struggles to get to the rim and finish. That’s the bad news (yeah, there’s a lot of it).
The good news is that Scoot finished last season with a bang, averaging 16.9 points, 6.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.8 threes in 32.2 mpg over his final 23 games on 35% 3P and 86% FT shooting. And his past few games have been very encouraging: 17.0 points, 6.7 assists, 2.7 steals and 2.3 threes per game while still coming off the bench. I just added him in one of my main leagues, so let’s hope he can keep it going!
Josh Giddey will be a Top 50 fantasy player from here on out
After a much-needed change of scenery, it seemed like Giddey was a sure bet to have a breakout season in Chicago. But he got off to a rough start and has often watched fourth quarters from the bench, playing 30-plus minutes only nine times thus far.
But he’s been more aggressive on both ends of the floor lately, and he’s coming off his finest performance of the season a few days ago, a monster 23-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in just 29 minutes of action. It’s easy to forget that Giddey just turned 22 a few months ago, and there’s room for his game to grow. The Aussie’s value is trending up.
Kawhi Leonard will stay surprisingly healthy the rest of the way
He’s Kawhi Leonard, so it’s hard to be super optimistic he’ll be able to stay healthy for any length of time. But the Clippers have been extra cautious about holding him out to start this season, essentially reducing his regular season to just 48 games (assuming he returns on Jan. 4, as expected). He’ll also have the All-Star break to serve as extra rest in between, so maybe we’ll get around 15 games played (out of 19) before the break and 21 games played (out of 29) afterward.
That might be too little, too late if you used a Top 75 draft pick on Leonard, but if you were able to draft him at a nice discount (or were shrewd enough to add him off the waiver wire), getting roughly 36 games out of Kawhi could prove to be a difference-maker.
(Top photo of Zach Edey: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
