We still have three matches to be played in Gameweek 37 but there is already plenty to talk about.
Injuries for Alexander Isak (£9.5m) and William Saliba (£6.5m) will have thrown the cat among the pigeons for a lot of Fantasy Premier League managers, as both are very highly owned. A win for Saliba’s Arsenal against Isak’s Newcastle United on Sunday means the Londoners are guaranteed second place, which could have team-selection implications for Gameweek 38.
Meanwhile, it’s still all to play for over the top flight’s other three Champions League positions for next season, which will also have FPL permutations.
Let’s look at the main points for discussion from the gameweek.
What to do about Isak?
Alexander Isak was unexpectedly absent this week as Newcastle lost 1-0 against Arsenal.
Head coach Eddie Howe said the striker felt “a bit of stiffness” after training in the lead-up to Sunday’s game. “He went for a scan this (Sunday) morning, really purely as a precaution,” Howe told reporters. “But then it became obvious he wasn’t going to be fit to play. So I don’t know. A lot will depend on how he reacts in the next few days.”
If you own Isak, the best thing to do is sit tight and wait for an update nearer the Gameweek 38 deadline. Third-placed Newcastle play mid-table Everton at home in a must-win game for their Champions League hopes, so if the Swede is fit, he’s one of the best options for the final gameweek.
However, if we get news of the top-scoring forward in this season’s game being out again, or even doubtful, then he has to go. In the final week of the season, we can’t take a chance on Isak being fit if we don’t get definitive news.
Alexander Isak is a major doubt for Gameweek 38 (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
The best replacement for Isak would have to be Evanilson (£5.8m), as his Bournemouth side have one of their best fixtures of the season to finish at home against already-relegated Leicester City. If you have two or more free transfers, then his low price also acts as an enabler and allows you to upgrade another spot in your team. You have to fancy the Brazilian as one of the most likely goalscorers in Gameweek 38.
Ollie Watkins (£9.1m) is another fine pick. Aston Villa go to Manchester United, who will have played their Europa League final in Spain, potentially involving 30 minutes of extra time, four days earlier. It’s a must-win game for Unai Emery’s men too, as they will probably need three points to have any chance of finishing in the Champions League positions. Watkins should get plenty of game time, with the on-loan Marcus Rashford (£6.6m) ineligible to play against his parent club even if he didn’t recently suffer a season-ending hamstring injury.
Yoane Wissa (£6.9m) is another forward option. As with Evanilson, his price means he would release funds if you want to upgrade another position and Brentford, currently eighth and chasing the club’s first ever European place, have a plum game away to a Wolves side with nothing to play for.
Saliba and larger Arsenal worries
William Saliba came off at half-time against Newcastle, with Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta revealing in his post-match press conference that the defender “felt something in his hamstring’’.
I think it’s likely his season is over due to the nature of the injury. It’s unfortunate news for his FPL owners as we really don’t want to be burning a transfer on a defender on the last day. Also, the fixture was as good as it gets, with Arsenal going up against bottom-of-the-table Southampton (A).
If Saliba is confirmed out, I would only transfer him if you don’t have a decent backup on the bench. I would favour benching him and starting another player if their club have even a half-decent fixture and using your transfer(s) on the attacking positions.
If you are not in this position, the top replacement defender, in my opinion, is Milos Kerkez (£5.2m). Bournemouth had the joint-highest clean-sheet odds (45 per cent) for Gameweek 38, according to Oddschecker, at time of writing as they are at home to a Jamie Vardy-less Leicester, and Kerkez has immense attacking threat, too. He has two goals and six assists this season, and this is a fixture where he can profit at both ends of the pitch.
Kerkez might be the ideal replacement for Arsenal’s injured Saliba (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Newcastle defenders are also worth looking at, as they are also given a 45 per cent chance of keeping a clean sheet in that home game against Everton. As stated already, Howe’s side have all to play for in this fixture as they look to secure Champions League football for next season.
Arsenal wrapping up second position in the league will also be cause for concern if you own their assets. It’s going to be a lot more difficult to predict Arteta’s starting XI. It’s an away game against long-since relegated opposition and, after a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a bit of rotation and early substitutions for the attackers.
Under normal circumstances, Arsenal players would be top-priority buys going into this fixture, but I think we have to be wary now. If you already own their assets they are an easy keep, as it’s not worth using a transfer to remove them, but buying becomes a lot trickier.
The teams with something still to play for
Generally, going into the final week, we should be targeting those teams who still have something to play for and avoiding the ones who don’t. The advantage this gives us is that we have a good idea of the starting XIs and which managers are less likely to rotate. We also know that those games will be taken seriously.
With teams who have nothing to play for and are 90 minutes from their summer holidays, naturally the usual level of intensity probably isn’t going to be there. We also tend to see rotated line-ups and managers making early substitutions. This is why, typically, there are more goals and fewer clean sheets in Gameweek 38 than the average.
As things stand, Newcastle, Chelsea, Villa, City and Nottingham Forest can still qualify for the Champions League. Two of the five will miss out. A little further down the table, Brentford, Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth could all still finish eighth, which might be worth a place in European competition next season.
It would be a good idea to take these factors into consideration when making your final transfers of the season.
(Top photo of William Saliba: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)