There’s a midfield template developing in Fantasy Premier League, with Mohamed Salah, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka, the game’s three most expensive midfielders, also being its highest-owned players.
Bryan Mbeumo was becoming the FPL’s go-to fourth midfielder but a change in his role for Brentford coupled with a tough fixture run means that ownership in him is declining. So, without a clear standout alternative, should we be sticking with Mbeumo or shifting funds into building a premium defence instead?
Mbeumo or bust?
Brentford’s Mbeumo (£7.6m) is the game’s fourth-most-owned midfielder (30 per cent of all squads). His figure of 11 goal involvements this season also ranks him fourth among FPL midfielders (nine goals and two assists).
We’ve seen a stark contrast emerge between his home and away form, with only one of those goal involvements coming away from the west Londoners’ Gtech Community Stadium. Brentford have scored 26 league goals on their own pitch this season in eight matches, six more than any other Premier League club, and they also lead the way for expected goals (xG, 17.73) and Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (34) at home.
Mbeumo has multiple routes to points, with six big chances created and four big chances scored. He also takes Brentford’s penalties. He has been less productive in recent weeks, though, with just one shot from inside the opposition box in his past four games.
Bryan Mbeumo delivered 13 points in Gameweek 15 (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
The biggest concern for Mbeumo owners is his upcoming fixtures, with three aways in the next five league games (to Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and Southampton). Also, Brentford’s next four home matches are all against sides in the top five of the Premier League table: Nottingham Forest, Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.
He has already blanked on the road against City and Liverpool this season. With the short trip to Stamford Bridge up next, it feels like we’re at a natural selling point.
Brentford’s upcoming fixtures
| Gamweek | Opponent |
|---|---|
|
Gameweek 16 |
Chelsea (A) |
|
Gameweek 17 |
N. Forest (H) |
|
Gameweek 18 |
Brighton (A) |
|
Gameweek 19 |
Arsenal (H) |
|
Gameweek 20 |
Southampton (A) |
|
Gameweek 21 |
Man. City (A) |
Selling Mbeumo could allow you to move some more cash to defence, with Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) an attractive option.
The challenge is finding a worthy midfield replacement who can match Mbeumo’s high-quality output.
Who are the best Mbeumo alternatives?
Chelsea and their four-game, 14-goal winning streak are a key team to focus on.
They have a sea of ‘green’ fixtures (the easiest according to FPL’s difficulty rating) over the next seven gameweeks. They are seeing out the calendar year with league matches against Brentford, Everton, Fulham and Ipswich Town.
Palmer (£11.1m) is the most owned player in the game, and doubling up on the Chelsea attack with another of their midfielders is a key differential move.
Enzo Fernandez (£5.0m) has become an unlikely transfer target since the November international break. He has been more advanced as a secondary ‘No 10’ alongside Palmer and, across the past four FPL gameweeks, he has registered three goals and two assists for 35 points. Only the premium midfield trio of Liverpool’s Salah (£13.3m), Palmer and Saka (£10.5m) of Arsenal produced more in that period.
The Argentinian’s underlying numbers are not as impressive as Palmer’s but nine key passes and four big chances created ranks him second to his England international team-mate for creativity since Gameweek 12. His recent returns may not be sustainable but the balance of form and fixtures, plus a cheap price, makes Fernandez worth a punt.
Enzo Fernandez has emerged as a surprise FPL differential (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
West Ham United’s Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m) is also making a strong case for inclusion in our midfield with nine goal involvements (four goals, five assists). He consistently plays the 90 minutes and has some attractive fixtures over the next three gameweeks — Bournemouth, Brighton and Southampton.
The problem is that Bowen doesn’t offer a significant saving over Mbeumo, leaving no additional funds to move into those premium defender positions.
Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) has blanked in his past four starts but produced four goals and one assist in the opening 10 gameweeks of the season — a healthy rate of an attacking return every two matches. Semenyo has been unlucky to blank in this most recent spell, having registered 16 shots and six key passes, including two big chances created.
Bournemouth have some attractive home games coming up, with West Ham, Crystal Palace and Everton being their next three visitors. Semenyo could prosper in these fixtures.
The rotation route
Another FPL midfielder at a similar price point is Manchester United’s Amad (£5.1m), who is becoming a favourite at wing-back in their new Ruben Amorim era.
Amad has produced five assists in four starts from this position, but his underlying numbers suggest he has overperformed, with just eight key passes and three big chances created. He has shown some goal threat though, taking 12 shots in those four games, including nine from inside the box.
Gameweek 16 perhaps isn’t the ideal entry point to plump for Amad, but after Sunday’s derby trip to Manchester City, United face Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers. His fixtures also rotate well with Aston Villa midfielder Morgan Rogers (£5.4m), another lock for many FPL teams (he’s at 22 per cent ownership).
Fantasy managers could lean on Amad and Rogers, playing each of them in their respective clubs’ easier games — you could bench Rogers against City and Newcastle United in Gameweeks 17 and 18, but then start him for the home games against Brighton and Leicester City in Gameweeks 19 and 20.
Rogers has been one of the season’s most consistent midfield performers, with six goal involvements (four goals, two assists) and 15 starts.
Given I already own Rogers, moving on from Mbeumo to Amad is a sound option for me ahead of Gameweek 16, but I’m leaning towards taking a punt on Fernandez.
Either way, I’ll use the funds saved to buy Alexander-Arnold for my defence.
(Top photos: Rogers, left, and Mbeumo; Getty Images)
