EDMONTON — The Edmonton Oilers lost a heartbreaking series to the Vegas Golden Knights two years ago, and now they’re expecting a different outcome in the rematch.
The key players are still in the picture, as nine skaters and one goalie are expected to dress in Game 1 for the Oilers who were part of that 2023 matchup.
But as coach Kris Knoblauch, who wasn’t behind the bench for the Oilers two years ago, points out, a lot of time has passed, and a lot has changed.
So, it’s time for the key question: Are the Oilers in a more advantageous position to beat the Golden Knights now?
Here are five points and counterpoints to consider.
Why they’re worse off: Not having Mattias Ekholm in this series truly hurts.
Knoblauch ruled him out on Saturday after deeming him doubtful for the matchup 36 hours earlier. The Oilers will continue to manage without arguably their best blueliner, an all-situations defender who plays against top-end competition.
Why they’re better off: The Oilers are in an improved position to handle Ekholm’s absence than they would have been in the last two playoffs.
Jake Walman isn’t believed to be 100 percent following a late-season injury, but he’s still a good all-around defenceman who can skate, move the puck and play both sides. He’s an option on the penalty kill, though he wasn’t used in that situation to close out the Los Angeles series.
John Klingberg has appeared in 68 playoff games and was impressive last round after he got into the lineup for Game 2. Ty Emberson’s role has been reduced, but he remains a good No. 6 who kills penalties. Troy Stecher is healthy and waiting in the wings.
All that is before mentioning that Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak both probably had the best seasons of their NHL careers, with Kulak’s work coming in an increased and varied role.
Two years ago, the Oilers rounded out their D corps with Cody Ceci and the still-green duo of Vincent Desharnais and Philip Broberg. Those three remained in the picture last year, too.
Why they’re worse off: Their power play isn’t as proficient.
The Oilers owned the best power play in NHL history since the stat was first recorded in 1977-78 by capitalizing 32.4 percent of the time during the 2022-23 season. That carried over into the playoffs. They were successful 42.6 percent of their chances over the 12 games, including a 39.1 percent rate in the six contests against the Golden Knights.
This season, they were 12th in the NHL at 23.7 percent. They struggled mightily early in the season to the point where they considered removing Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins off the high-profile top unit. There was a rotating cast of characters on the power play down the stretch due to injuries.
The good news for the Oilers is they scored on five of their last eight chances on the man advantage to close out the Kings after going 0-for-5 through the first two games. Having Corey Perry time-share the net-front spot with Hyman has given them another look to throw at opponents.
Why they’re better off: They’re just as good, if not superior, at five-on-five.
It’s not like the Oilers were terrible in that capacity two years ago. They were 12th in the NHL with a 53 percent goal share.
However, they were outscored 26-24 in that situation in the 2023 playoffs, including 15-9 by the Golden Knights despite an expected-goals percentage of 53 in that series. Expected goals were 12-10.5, so the Oilers weren’t effective enough at either end of the ice.
There’s reason to believe they’re a more effective club now, though results have always been easy to come by.
Though they were outscored 171-168 in the regular season at five-on-five, they possessed a 54 expected goals percentage. That was good for third in the league and up more than three percentage points from their 2022-23 data.
The Oilers topped the Kings by only a 15-14 margin in that game state, but their 60 expected goals percentage is the best of any team in the playoffs. Expected goals were 17.7-11.5.
It’ll come down to the Oilers finishing off more chances and getting more saves, but it’s a good sign they’re driving play at five-on-five, considering how few penalties they drew in the first round. The Oilers had just 13 power-play opportunities in six games against the Kings.
Why they’re worse off: Their starting goalie isn’t starting the series.
Kudos to Calvin Pickard for providing good enough goaltending over the last four games, all wins, to help the Oilers knock off the Kings. He did his job, and the Oilers might not still be playing without his contributions.
But this isn’t how the Oilers drew it up. As Knoblauch said after Game 5, there was a plan in the early days of the season to chart the best course for Stuart Skinner to be prepared for the playoffs. Skinner’s inconsistent play and concussion suffered in March had the coaching staff ready for the possibility of needing Pickard.
Pickard’s services were needed before the playoffs were six periods old, throwing things for a loop. It calls into question both when Skinner will play again and what state he’ll be in if he’s called upon.
Why they’re better off: The coaching staff has a more trusted option behind Skinner.
Skinner followed up an excellent rookie season in which he was the Calder Trophy runner-up by struggling in his first playoff experience. He was pulled in four of his 12 starts, including three of the last four games in the Vegas series.
He never lost his starting gig because the coaching staff, with former bench boss Jay Woodcroft at the helm, had so little faith in Jack Campbell. That’s certainly not the case when it comes to Pickard, who’s now led the team onto the ice six times and counting over the last two postseasons.
Why they’re worse off: Aside from Leon Draisaitl, the top end of the forward group probably isn’t as elite.
Draisaitl is coming off the best and most complete season of his NHL career and is in the running to win his second Hart Trophy. The rest of the top six, compared to two years ago, largely haven’t been at the same level.
Connor McDavid has gone from 153 points down to 100, although no one is denying he’s still a game-changer. His 11 points against the Kings, leading the playoffs, are all the evidence required.
Nugent-Hopkins has fallen from 104 points to 49, whereas Hyman has dropped from 83 to 44. Evander Kane is showing promise, but he’s just five games into his return from a season-long absence.
There’s no denying the Oilers still have high-calibre scoring options up front, but most haven’t been at the same level this season that they were in 2022-23.
Why they’re better off: Their depth is much stronger.
A major reason why the Golden Knights knocked off the Oilers two years ago was that they rolled four lines. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy had a heavy bottom six that he trusted and deployed. Woodcroft didn’t. He used 11 forwards and seven defencemen in that series.
The Oilers’ third and fourth lines are completely revamped from two years ago. Just one player expected to start the series in that capacity remains: Mattias Janmark. There are truculent wingers Trent Frederic and Vasily Podkolzin, playoff-mode Connor Brown, the pesky Viktor Arvidsson, and the useful-and-experienced Adam Henrique. Speaking of experience, the ultra pest Perry will surely get some shifts in the bottom six. He has 221 games on his postseason resume.
“We have a huge advantage on our team that we can play any line against any line,” Brown said after the Oilers closed out the Kings. “That’s going to be big for us.”
Facing Vegas is the ultimate test of that, but the Oilers feel like they’re ready.
Why they’re worse off: The Oilers aren’t as rested.
Ekholm told The Athletic in March how much of a toll the 2024 playoff run took on the Oilers and how the Golden Knights were in a better position to win the division. The reason: They had more down and recovery time after losing in the first round.
Well, the Golden Knights secured that top seed in the Pacific Division, which means the matchup is starting in Las Vegas. That’s less than ideal for the Oilers. At least they’re healthier than they’ve been in weeks, with everyone accounted for other than Ekholm.
Why they’re better off: The Oilers are more battle-tested.
Losing in 2023 to Vegas pissed off the Oilers. They didn’t think they fell to a superior opponent. Instead, they believed they gave away the series by crumpling at key times. That was the major takeaway, one that vowed not to repeat in the next year’s playoffs.
The Oilers reaching Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final is proof they learned some valuable lessons. That they just won a series in which they trailed 2-0 and were behind in the third period of games 3 and 4 shows they still don’t fold the tent when the going gets tough.
— All advanced statistics in this story are from Natural Stat Trick.
(Photo of William Karlsson and Connor McDavid: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)