LAS VEGAS — In 2023, when the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers met in the second round of the playoffs, each side had a clear advantage.
The Golden Knights were the deeper team, more dominant at even strength, and felt that if they could keep the game at five-on-five, they would eventually win — and they did. Meanwhile, the Oilers were top-heavy and much more reliant on the power play, which was converting at a ridiculous 56 percent clip in the playoffs.
It’s only one game, but in the 2025 rematch, it appears the roles may be reversed.
Edmonton had complete control of Game 1 at even strength Tuesday night at T-Mobile Arena, scoring four-straight goals to win 4-2. The Oilers neutralized Vegas’ dangerous transition attack for the majority of the contest and were dominant in the battle of possession.
“They elevated their game today and I don’t think we did halfway through the game,” Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy said. “I think it’s that simple. They were just better than us.”
At five-on-five, the Oilers held massive advantages in shots (22-9), scoring chances (31-13) and high danger chances (13-3). Most importantly, they won on the scoreboard 4-1 at even strength, scoring the game’s last four goals.
Meanwhile, the Golden Knights’ offense looked unthreatening for most of the night, except when they had a man advantage. This time, the Vegas power play entered the series red-hot; it was ranked second in the NHL in the regular season and scored five times in the first-round series against Minnesota.
Vegas opened the scoring on Tuesday with its sixth power-play tally of the playoffs when Shea Theodore’s shot from the point deflected off William Karlsson’s stick, then off Mark Stone’s skate and into the Edmonton net. The Golden Knights rode that momentum to a second goal by Stone minutes later, but as the game wore on, they struggled to hold possession.
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“We didn’t execute at a super high level through the neutral zone tonight, and that kind of cost us our O-zone time,” Stone said. “You turn the puck over in those spots, it gives them a chance to turn back the other way, and I think that’s what happened in the second and third (periods).”
Edmonton really poured it on in the second period, outshooting Vegas 12-1 in the middle frame. The Golden Knights defended relatively well, keeping the Oilers’ shots to the outside, but by staying so compact around the net, they gave Edmonton space to hang onto possession for extended periods. That meant a lot of defending, and tired skaters who were happy to simply flip the puck back to the Oilers to get a line change by the time they finally won possession back.
“When we turned it over, they sustained more zone time, and when they have the puck, they’re a hard team to check,” Vegas forward Brandon Saad said. “They have a good hockey team, but at the same time, I don’t think we played up to our standard tonight, and obviously they took advantage of it.”
The Golden Knights are typically not all that worried about spending more time in their defensive zone if it means protecting the middle of the ice. They’re more than happy to allow teams to hold the puck along the walls, waiting for an opportunity to counter-punch, but after chasing the Oilers around, it seemed Vegas’ skaters were too exhausted to throw the counter punches.
“We did a pretty good job of getting some pucks back. We just didn’t execute in transition,” Stone said. “Early on we did, and we had some good looks and great chances with some two-on-ones. We just didn’t capitalize.”
Edmonton entered this series with a very clear objective: Limit Vegas in transition.
“We were more focused on what we were doing with the puck and how to keep them off the rush and make them come 200 feet,” Oilers forward Corey Perry said. “We know how good they are off the rush. They scored that second goal off the rush, so you have to take care of the puck and manage the puck.”
Outside of Vegas’ lone even-strength goal, which was a brilliant rush play by Jack Eichel to create space and then drop the puck to Stone for the shot, the Oilers surrendered almost nothing in transition. Their defensemen made sound decisions at the offensive blue line while the forwards played above the puck, and the Golden Knights weren’t able to manufacture many chances with speed.
When Vegas dumped the puck into the Edmonton zone to establish a forecheck, the Oilers blue liners beat them to pucks and exited the zone quickly, led by John Klingberg, who had an outstanding night breaking pucks out of the zone. This heat map by Natural Stat Trick is a good visual representation of how few chances the Golden Knights created at five-on-five.
At even strength, the game wasn’t close. Edmonton looked hungrier, faster and more skilled.
The question is: Can Vegas flip that?
This veteran team has been through enough playoff battles to know one game doesn’t make a series. The last time the Golden Knights lost Game 1 of a series, they beat Winnipeg in the next four games to close it out in five. More recently, they reeled off three straight wins after falling behind 2-1 to Minnesota in the opening round.
“I think we can bounce back,” Saad said. “We’re confident in our group. We let that one slip away, which is tough, especially at home, but for us, I think there’s no panic. It’s just (time to) reset and get on to the next one.”
Vegas was a strong even-strength team in the regular season, ranking fifth in shot share (53.35 percent) and sixth in expected goal share (52.51 percent) according to Natural Stat Trick. The Oilers were better, though, ranking third in those metrics.
The entire dynamic of this series feels so different from many over the past years for the Golden Knights. They’ve almost always been the stronger even-strength team, and typically hope to avoid special teams. Now, for once, it feels like Vegas is the team hoping for a few penalties to be called each way to allow its power play to make its mark.
In the playoffs — when penalties seem to become fewer and further between as things progress — that could be a dangerous game to play.
Vegas managed only five shots on goal at even strength over the final 40 minutes of the game.
It’s important to note the Golden Knights were without their top defenseman, Alex Pietrangelo, who was held out of the game with an illness. If he returns to the lineup, he should help in more ways than one, from defending to breaking the puck out to creating in transition.
It’s also important to remember how good Cassidy has been at making adjustments. There’s a reason he’s 23-13 in the playoffs behind the Vegas bench. Perhaps he will break up his loaded top line of Eichel, Stone and William Karlsson and go for a more balanced approach, especially since that top line largely lost the matchup to Edmonton’s top trio in Game 1.
Either way, the Golden Knights need improvement, and they’re well aware.
“We need a bounce-back game, especially here at home,” Saad said. “It’s a very important game.”
Important is an understatement. Historically, teams that fall behind 2-0 in a series at home have come back to win the series less than 20 percent of the time. The Golden Knights need their best performance of the season on Thursday.
(Top photo: Candice Ward / Getty Images)