The expanded College Football Playoff is doing exactly what it intended to do, allowing more teams more access to important games late in the season.
The regular season’s penultimate weekend offers 21 games with College Football Playoff ramifications. Next week, there are currently 23. That’s nearly three times as many as the final two weeks combined (15) in 2023.
With a 12-team field containing five conference champions and seven at-large squads, this year’s race paints a vastly different picture from mid-November in 2023, which fed into the final four-team Playoff. At this time a year ago, eight teams had positioned themselves above the field as CFP contenders. Now every team still in the running for a power-conference title remains in CFP contention.
Perhaps the number of games with CFP stakes next week will drop a bit due to upsets this Saturday, but it will still dwarf the seven with CFP implications played on Thanksgiving weekend in 2023.
“What would be the talking point right now that everybody would be complaining about if it was a four-team playoff?” CBS college football analyst Gary Danielson said. “Are we going to get two from the SEC? Are we going to get two Big Ten teams or is Notre Dame going to be the fifth team? Is that the whole argument there? I think that’s all that would be going on right now.”
Let’s break down the differences between 2023 and ‘24 based on each season’s penultimate week of action.
2024
Win and they’re virtually in
No. 5 Indiana (10-0) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1). The winner is assured of a CFP berth and probably a home Playoff game. The loser still is in decent shape for a CFP spot, but it might have to travel.
In good shape with a win
Kentucky (4-6) at No. 3 Texas (9-1). The Longhorns likely lock up a spot with a victory, but it’s against a team they can’t take lightly. The Wildcats are 1-6 in SEC play but won at Ole Miss and lost to Georgia by one point.
No. 4 Penn State (9-1) at Minnesota (6-4). It’s going to be cold, and the Nittany Lions haven’t won in Minneapolis since 2010. Penn State will have a CFP case even with a loss, but scrutiny will intensify.
No. 7 Alabama (8-2) at Oklahoma (5-5). Considered a marquee matchup when the Sooners joined the SEC, this one has lost some sizzle. However, a loss would severely wound the Tide’s CFP chances, or at least make them contingent upon other teams losing.
No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5). The teams have played just twice since 2008 and not in Gainesville since 2015. An Ole Miss loss likely ends its CFP hopes.
Elimination games
No. 19 Army (9-0) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) at Yankee Stadium. Army could vault itself into strong consideration by the CFP selection committee by upsetting Notre Dame. A loss likely dooms Notre Dame’s CFP hopes.
Wake Forest (4-6) at No. 8 Miami (9-1). The Hurricanes were off last week and will attempt to rebound after losing to Georgia Tech. A second loss coupled with an SMU win eliminates Miami from the ACC championship game and likely the CFP.
No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2) at Auburn (4-6). This is dangerous territory for the Aggies, who have a date with Texas on deck. Auburn doesn’t lack for talent, and despite its record, it matches up with just about everyone.
No. 22 Iowa State (8-2) at Utah (4-6). The Cyclones need this win to remain in Big 12 and CFP contention, while the Utes are in danger of missing a bowl in a full season for the first time since 2013.
No. 24 UNLV (8-2) at San Jose State (6-4). For the Rebels to have a shot at the Mountain West title, let alone the CFP, they need to beat a Spartans team that has been competitive all year and get some help.
Colorado State (7-3) at Fresno State (5-5). The Rams are unbeaten in the Mountain West, and a potential conference title game showdown with Boise State would offer them an outside shot at the last automatic bid.
Not must-win but still vital
No. 13 SMU (9-1) at Virginia (5-5). The Mustangs are the ACC’s only unbeaten team but can’t afford a loss to pick up an at-large berth.
No. 14 BYU (9-1) at No. 21 Arizona State (8-2). Neither can clinch a Big 12 title game berth with a win, but a loss makes that goal awfully difficult.
No. 16 Colorado (8-2) vs. Kansas (4-6) in Kansas City, Mo. The Buffaloes are rolling, but they meet an equally hot Jayhawks squad that has beaten Iowa State and BYU in consecutive weeks.
Lose and you deserve to miss the CFP
UMass (2-8) at No. 10 Georgia (8-2)
UTEP (2-8) at No. 11 Tennessee (8-2)
No. 12 Boise State (9-1) at Wyoming (2-8)
The Citadel (FCS) at No. 17 Clemson (8-2)
Wofford (FCS) at No. 18 South Carolina (7-3)
Little direct impact but could help metrics
No. 23 Missouri (7-3) at Mississippi State (2-8)
No. 25 Illinois (7-3) at Rutgers (6-4)
Texas A&M and Alabama wouldn’t mind the resume boost of the Tigers hanging on at the back end of the Top 25. Similarly, the Illini can aid Penn State and Oregon if they stay in the rankings.
2023
It’s a little simpler to track the 15 games that carried CFP ramifications with two weeks remaining in the 2023 regular season. Eight teams had distanced themselves from the rest of the pack as legitimate CFP contenders. Their results on the second-to-last weekend did nothing to dispel that notion.
No. 1 Georgia 38, No. 18 Tennessee 10. The unbeaten Bulldogs closed out SEC play with an emphatic victory.
No. 2 Ohio State 37, Minnesota 3. The Buckeyes finished their home campaign by keeping pace with their archrivals atop the conference standings.
No. 3 Michigan 31, Maryland 24. The Wolverines appeared somewhat vulnerable against the Terrapins, but in reality it served as a wakeup call that propelled them to the CFP national title.
No. 4 Florida State 58, North Alabama 13. Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis’ season-ending injury made this game more consequential to the final CFP rankings than anyone could have imagined at the time.
No. 5 Washington 22, No. 11 Oregon State 20. In their final meeting as conference rivals, the Huskies held off the Beavers to clinch a Pac-12 championship game berth.
No. 6 Oregon 49, Arizona State 13. Bo Nix threw six touchdown passes in the first half to take the Ducks one step closer to a rematch with Washington.
No. 7 Texas 26, Iowa State 16. The Longhorns cleared a big hurdle toward reaching their first CFP after losing three of their last four in Ames.
No. 8 Alabama 66, Chattanooga 10. People actually spent money to watch this game.
On Thanksgiving weekend, Michigan knocked off Ohio State again, and the other six teams held serve with varying degrees of drama.
Oregon and Washington met twice in 2023 with CFP resumes on the line. This year’s meeting can only damage the Ducks’ Big Ten title game seeding. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
Perhaps a more balanced year-over-year comparison is to line up this year’s matchups with those that were pivotal for not only the four-team CFP but for New Year’s Six bowls and conference championships. Those numbers are nearly identical. Last year, 22 games fit that description the penultimate week and 18 on Thanksgiving weekend. In addition, there were two teams that had already clinched division titles approaching their final games but were not in the CFP picture.
In the final year with a four-team field, not every game had CFP ramifications, but several impacted New Year’s Six bowls and conference championship games. Here are the ones that were pivotal in choosing New Year’s Six representatives.
No. 9 Missouri 33, Florida 31. A field goal with five seconds left kept the Tigers in the New Year’s Six hunt. Ultimately, they landed a Cotton Bowl berth.
No. 11 Penn State 27, Rutgers 6. The Nittany Lions were out of the Big Ten title chase, but this result helped get them to the Peach Bowl.
No. 13 Ole Miss 35, Louisiana-Monroe 3. The Rebels’ win kept them on track for an eventual Peach Bowl spot.
Outside of Texas, the Big 12 was a hot mess of uncertainty. Coming out of the penultimate weekend, four teams still had a chance to win the league title and earn a New Year’s Six spot.
No. 14 Oklahoma 31, BYU 24. A late touchdown kept the Sooners in the Big 12 title hunt, although they did not control their own path.
No. 23 Oklahoma State 43, Houston 30. The Cowboys’ win gave them the inside track to face Texas in the Big 12 championship game. They earned that spot the following week.
No. 21 Kansas State 31, No. 25 Kansas 27. The Wildcats rallied from an 11-point second-half deficit to stay on the fringe of Big 12 title contention.
In the Group of 5, there was a race among the leaders of Conference USA, the American and the Mountain West for the automatic New Year’s Six bid. It included five games on that weekend.
No. 24 Tulane 24, Florida Atlantic 8. Tulane stayed even with the American’s other two unbeatens and kept alive hopes for a second straight New Year’s Six bid.
SMU 38, Memphis 34. In the American’s marquee game, the Mustangs used a strong fourth quarter to remain undefeated in league play and eliminate Memphis from the title hunt.
UTSA 49, USF 21. The Roadrunners remained in a first-place tie with Tulane and SMU in the American by rolling past USF.
Liberty 49, UMass 25. The Flames remained unbeaten at 11-0 and crept closer to a New Year’s Six bid, which they ultimately obtained.
UNLV 31, Air Force 27. UNLV took control of first place in the Mountain West, and it was the one school in the league that had a shot at the New Year’s Six.
The ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 played without divisions last year, but the Big Ten and SEC held on for one final season, which kept New Year’s Six bowl hopes alive for teams that perhaps wouldn’t have competed for a national championship.
No. 10 Louisville 38, Miami 31. The Cardinals claimed the second ACC championship game spot and stayed alive for a possible New Year’s Six berth.
No. 16 Iowa 15, Illinois 13. The offense-challenged Hawkeyes squeaked to another win and clinched the Big Ten West Division with one week to play.
No. 17 Arizona 42, No. 22 Utah 18. The Wildcats’ surge kept them within striking distance of Oregon for the second Pac-12 title game spot.
In the final week of the 2023 regular season, there were seven games with CFP consequences. This year, it appears that 23 games on Thanksgiving weekend will have CFP implications. Nearly all of them are rivalries, which adds another layer to the sport’s unpredictability. One aspect remains certain: The more games that matter in the championship chase, the more it will excite the public and keep it — and the teams themselves — engaged longer.
(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
