With the unpredictable nature of knockout football, both in terms of the matches and the draws, it is rarely the case that you can unequivocally say the best two teams reached the final of any given competition.
Unless there’s a perfect seeding system in place and the big favourites and best teams win at every opportunity (UEFA is giving this a good go to be fair), that final is always at risk of not playing host to the two best sides.
Too right, too. Such a notion would make football incredibly predictable and therefore tedious (more so than some of you will think it is already).
Open draws do often throw up, though, a fixture that has the talent, gravitas and feel of a final but is played at too early a stage to feel satisfactory.
This is often the case in World Cups or European Championships, like last summer’s Euros when Spain met hosts Germany at the quarter-final stage and then pre-tournament favourites France in the semis. England, meanwhile, stuttered through the easier side of the draw and, while they made a decent fist of it in the final, they were clearly a step down in quality from winners Spain. It was nowhere near the ideal final.
It was a similar story in last season’s Champions League, with big underdogs Borussia Dortmund producing an impressively punchy performance at Wembley, before eventually succumbing to their superior opposition in champions Real Madrid. Madrid’s earlier dramatic victories in heavyweight clashes against Manchester City and Bayern Munich in the quarters and semis respectively had a feel of ‘whoever wins this tie could or should go on to win the competition’.
Remember when France and Argentina were paired together in the second round of the 2018 World Cup? Yep, far too early. Or one of the most famous examples in England was when newly-crowned title winners Nottingham Forest were drawn against reigning European champions Liverpool in the first round of the 1978-79 European Cup, in what was a completely open draw with no seedings or country-to-country restrictions.
UEFA’s new Swiss model Champions League format represents the total antithesis to that 1978 match-up (Brian Clough’s Forest won 2-0 on aggregate and would go on to lift the trophy), with eight group matches and weighted draws offering a supposed even level of overal opposition, plus seedings in the knockout stages, all helping to ensure the best teams reach the latter stages.
And despite Paris Saint-Germain struggling to finish in the top 24 of the group stage and having to come through a play-off to reach the last 16, it does feel like this season’s competition has ended up with its two best teams as its two finalists.
This is subjective, of course, and there can be arguments made for Barcelona, Bayern Munich and possibly Liverpool being among the best teams in this year’s tournament.
However, while Barcelona were probably the most fun team to watch this season, their defence was about as robust as a bowl of custard with an inferiority complex. Bayern Munich were good but defensive weaknesses meant they lost four matches during the competition and they had to scrape through against Celtic, while England’s best team Liverpool sauntered through the group but, despite only losing on penalties to PSG in the last 16, were outclassed by the French side over two legs.
Oh and while we’re talking of this season’s best teams, we are duty-bound at this juncture to mention losing semi-finalists Arsenal, whose manager Mikel Arteta asserted in Paris on Wednesday night: “I don’t think there’s been a better team in the competition so far.”
Just to clarify, he was talking about his own team there, not PSG.
To be fair to Arteta, Arsenal produced arguably the most impressive result of this season’s competition when dismantling Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, but having been beaten fair and square over two legs by a pretty magnificent PSG side, his comments were perhaps lacking in humility.
Anyway, here’s how Opta predicted each team would get on after the draw was made for the group stage at the start of the season.
Note Manchester City were strong favourites, given a 25.3 per cent chance of winning the competition at a time when neither computers nor mere humans could predict Pep Guardiola’s team were about to endure an era-ending campaign of frustration.
Also note PSG down in a lowly ninth, partly due to the relatively tough draw they were handed in the group (Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City comprised half of their opponents) but partly due to, well, they just weren’t fancied as a potential winner given they were still adjusting to a post-Kylian Mbappe existence.
Ousmane Dembele may have scored 24 goals in 18 appearances from December to March during what has been the most prolific campaign of his career, but after just seven goals in 52 games for club and country last season, it was not expected he could replace Mbappe’s goals. The audacious Khvicha Kvaratskhelia also wasn’t at the club when those Opta predictions were made, having arrived from Napoli in January.
PSG have come to the boil throughout the season and look almost flawless. They are a team full of energy, stamina, skill, blistering speed in the wide areas and metronomic control in midfield, with probably the best left-back in the world right now in Nuno Mendes, one of the best forward lines in Europe and a goalkeeper in Gianluigi Donnarumma who has made world-class saves throughout the knockout stages.
Most importantly, they have togetherness, they work as a collective and they defend and press as a team.
Former Arsenal midfielder Jack Wilshere said on TNT Sports of PSG after their victory over the Gunners: “You see a team that has complete clarity on every single phase of the game and every single action that they do, in possession and out of possession.”
Arsene Wenger echoed that praise on beIN Sports: “Tonight we have seen a different Paris Saint-Germain, not guided by possession and brilliant football, but guided by the fact that refusing to concede goals and taking advantage on the coutner-attacks and set pieces gave them success tonight.
“I said a long time ago they will not be far from winning the Champions League. Let’s not forget, they can still maybe be the only team who can have the perfect season — they can win the Champions League, make the double in France and they can win the Club World Cup.
“It would be extraordinary success for Luis Enrique and Paris Saint-Germain.”
Luis Enrique is aiming to lead PSG to a first Champions League triumph (Lars Baron – UEFA via Getty Images)
It certainly would, but while they will probably start the final as favourites, their opponents should also be heavily backed.
One thing you would say about PSG in this season’s Champions League is that, yes, they have beaten four of England’s finest in Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal.
Liverpool are clearly the best all-around team of that quartet but the version of Arne Slot’s side that PSG faced were in arguably their weakest period of the season, certainly in terms of performances around that time (also see the Carabao Cup final). The Reds were pretty awful in Paris, winning with a freakish result thanks to Alisson’s heroics.
That’s what’s different about unflappable Inter, who came through much sterner examinations against Bayern Munich and Barcelona in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively.
Inter, like PSG, have shown many different facets to their game. They began the competition with an extraordinary defensive record, conceding just two goals in their opening 10 matches (eight group games and a last-16 tie against Feyenoord) with a binary sequence of goals conceded — 0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-0-1.
Inevitably they conceded goals in the Bayern and Barcelona matches, but they scored at quite a rate with an overall aggregate across those two ties of 11-9, which included seven different Inter goalscorers.
It’s about time we took them seriously as a European force. So far this decade they have reached the Europa League final in 2020, won Serie A in 2021, won the Coppa Italia in 2022 and 2023, finished runners-up in the Champions League in 2023 and won Serie A again in 2024.
They may (although Napoli are three points ahead with three games remaining) win Serie A this season and now they are back in the Champions League final again. That’s some record, but without the huge star names, without youthful exuberance and probably also due to there being no Italian winner since 2010 (Inter’s triumph under Jose Mourinho), they are too easily overlooked (although not by Opta, who had them down as third favourites in that earlier graphic).
“It’s going to be tough against Inter but I think they have the same feeling,” Luis Enrique said on Wednesday. “It’s going to be an interesting final and very difficult for both teams — it’s special for all of us.
“It’s their second final in three years and shows they are a great team.”
Two great teams, two very deserving finalists and, potentially, one great Champions League final. It just feels right.