Roki Sasaki, the highly coveted 23-year-old pitcher from Japan, is expected to be posted next week during baseball’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, league sources confirmed to The Athletic. ESPN was first to report the development, which means Sasaki’s 45-day negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will begin soon.
The timeline allows Sasaki to sign with a team at some point once next year’s signing period opens on Jan. 15. In theory, that is when teams will once again have their full bonus pools available to them although teams have already made some unofficial agreements with prospects.
Since Sasaki is younger than 25, he will be classified by MLB as an international amateur free agent subject to bonus pool limits. The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s Japanese team, will receive a posting fee from the acquiring MLB team equal to 25 percent of the signing bonus.
Sasaki is the No. 3-ranked player on The Athletic’s Top 40 MLB free agent big board. But unlike the only two players that rank ahead of him Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes — Sasaki is a financial fit for every team in the sport. Because Sasaki is too young to sign anything other than a minor-league contract once he begins his tenure in the U.S., there won’t be a bidding war like the one Yoshinobu Yamamoto stirred up last year.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs are viewed in the industry as among the early favorites to land Sasaki.
In four NPB seasons, Sasaki had a 2.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. With a 100 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
“He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” one industry source said. “He’d develop into a No. 1.”
In particular, the Dodgers have been heavily linked to Sasaki. Rumors of some kind of unwritten agreement between the pitcher and the club prompted commissioner Rob Manfred to speak out about the topic last month at the owners’ meetings, while Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman denied any allegations. Manfred said he expected Sasaki not to sign until after the new year, so the timing of the posting was expected.
The Dodgers had the most remaining money in the 2024 bonus pool so, at least in theory, the timing could ding their chances of signing the pitcher. But since money won’t be a significant factor because of bonus limits, the financial aspect won’t be the primary factor that says the decision.
Sasaki will likely prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development.
The most money Sasaki could possibly sign for is $7,555,500. That’s how much the following eight teams have available: the Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays.
The teams with $6,908,600 apiece are the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates.
The teams with $6,261,600 apiece are the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals.
The four teams with the least amount to offer are: the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals ($5,646,200 apiece), and the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants ($5,146,200 apiece).
None of those financial figures include any unofficial agreements with prospects from Latin America. For example, league sources said that the Mets are still planning to give around $5 million to Elian Peña, a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic. Other similar deals involving other clubs and prospects have been made leaguewide, though it is always possible for a club to back out of a handshake deal to free up pool space to try to sign Sasaki.
Such a decision may hurt some relationships, but some teams may view it as a worthwhile gambit if it means signing Sasaki.
(Photo of Roki Sasaki pitching for Team Japan in 2023: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
