TORONTO — For the sixth time in the eight seasons, the Maple Leafs will play a Game 7. And this time, they’re hoping for a different result to keep their season alive and possibly change the narrative around this core once and for all.
The Leafs have a 0-5 record in Game 7s since 2018, with three losses against the Boston Bruins and one loss each against the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. They also lost a deciding Game 5 to Columbus in 2020.
The challenge in front of them on Sunday night isn’t any easier: a Florida Panthers team whose core of Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky and others have won the only two Game 7s they’ve played — against the Bruins in 2023 (yikes) and the Edmonton Oilers in last year’s Stanley Cup Final (double yikes).
Will history be the great teacher here? Or will Game 7 start a new, yet-to-be-written chapter for the Maple Leafs?
The likely lines
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Holmberg — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Pacioretty
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
Woll
Murray
It appears Matthew Knies is going to give it a go in Game 7.
The question: How much he can give the Leafs in his current physical state? Knies was injured in a collision with Niko Mikkola in Game 6 and was severely restricted in his movement afterward. He played only 13 minutes, clearly labouring, and was eventually lifted from the power play and the top line (briefly) as well.
Knies appears set to reclaim both spots tonight, skating with both units Sunday morning.
Bobby McMann is likeliest to move up to the No. 1 line in the event that Knies is limited; Max Pacioretty would be the likely candidate to replace him on PP1.
Anthony Stolarz remains sidelined for Game 7, meanwhile, with Matt Murray set to again back up Joseph Woll.
The mood was pretty light at the team’s morning skate. A round of jeers greeted Philippe Myers, assistant coach Mike van Ryn and Jake McCabe when they took the ice — the last three to arrive — for the 10:30 a.m. skate. —Siegel
The big questions
Will the Maple Leafs conquer their playoff demons?
In a recent conversation, former Leafs assistant coach Paul MacLean — the man who coined the term “demons” — shed insight on the “quiet fear” that comes over the Leafs core when playoff pressure takes hold mid-game.
“Unfortunately everybody turns into themselves a little bit and they don’t really worry about everyone else around them. They’re more worried about themselves and what they have to do and how they have to get things done as opposed to the whole group deciding that we need to make this different,” MacLean said.
Game 7 could present the last chance for this core to make things different. It won’t be easy at home, where the pressure is unavoidable. But overcoming the ghosts of past Game 7 losses could change how people see the core. And, quite possibly, how the core players see themselves.
Perhaps we’ll never see inside the dressing room through Game 7 to know whether or not the Leafs let a quiet fear take over. But we should be able to tell by how free and confident they play on the ice. —Kloke
Will William Nylander come through?
Nylander has gone cold after a strong start to the series, held without a point in Games 4, 5, and 6.
He was particularly quiet in the Leafs’ Game 6 win, finishing with just a single shot in less than 16 minutes. He wasn’t skating with his usual verve. Yet, of the big four Leaf stars, Nylander has been the one to come through in the biggest spots. He scored twice and added an assist when the Leafs iced the Senators in Game 6 of the first round and last spring, he was the only Leaf to score in Game 7 against the Bruins. (He was also the only Leaf to score in Game 6.)
In five career Game 7s, Nylander has scored twice — more than Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares combined (one). If there’s one Leaf who’s likeliest to rise up tonight it’s Nylander. —Siegel
Can the Leafs stay disciplined?
Yes, the idea of the Leafs staying disciplined might not feel as dramatic for a Game 7 as, say, Matthews and Marner showing up when it matters. But if we’re treating Game 7 as a hockey game and not a reflection of whether the Shanaplan was a success, it’s worth remembering: winning the special-teams battle could determine the outcome.
The Leafs have lacked discipline at times through this series. And they were at risk of letting things get away from them with two penalties in the first period of Game 6. Florida ended up with four power plays to Toronto’s two. If the Leafs’ penalty kill and entire defensive structure had not been so strong — they deserve credit in that regard — the game and the series could have been over.
There was a scrum near the goal in Game 6 that saw Max Domi, of all people, back off and not get engage.
In Toronto, in front of what could be a tense crowd, you know the Panthers are going to do Panthers things and try to engage the Leafs physically once again. Being smart, staying out of the penalty box and not giving the Panthers’ power play a chance to get hot could go a long way. —Kloke
How to watch
The puck drops in Toronto at 7:30 p.m. (ET) on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, TNT, TruTV and Max.
(Photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)