There is no formula for accurately predicting who will win the NCAA Tournament. But over the years, we’ve learned a thing or two.
Including UConn last season, 19 of the past 22 national champions have been ranked among KenPom’s top six teams entering the postseason.
Beyond that, 25 of the past 27 teams to win it all entered March Madness ranked in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The two exceptions are 2014 UConn, the outlier of all outliers, and 2021 Baylor, which barely missed those cutoffs during the COVID-19 season.
All of which is to say, while it’s fun to predict a team coming out of the woodwork to cut down the nets… it probably isn’t happening.
Using those criteria as our North Star, we’re left with only 11 teams. If history is any indication, one of them will be your 2025 national champions.
Check out the full list below.
GO FURTHER
Which teams can realistically win the NCAA Tournament? These 11 have a shot
