This is where dreams start to get real. Survive this round and you’re dancing into the Sweet 16. The pressure’s on, the lights are bright and only the best will keep their madness hopes alive.
The Athletic has you covered. Here are the biggest things to look for on Day 3 of the Big Dance as teams look to advance:
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 McNeese
12:10 p.m. ET on CBS
One of two upsets Thursday featured Will Wade and McNeese taking down Clemson. Can they do it again? The answer is yes, but they can’t freeze up like they did in the final minutes of the first round, turning a blowout into a nail-biter. For McNeese to advance to its first Sweet 16 in program history, it must make 3s. The Cowboys are 12-0 when they hit at least 10 3s and 16-2 when making at least seven.
The Cowboys will likely be the more physical and aggressive team, but the Boilermakers won’t panic. Nor should you when you have an All-American point guard in Braden Smith and one of the best players in the Big Ten in Trey Kaufman-Renn. The pick-and-roll combination of Smith and Kaufman-Renn is nearly unguardable, so expect to see that early and often.
This Purdue team isn’t known for its defensive rebounding, ranking 313th nationally. It did put together one of its best performances of the season in the first-round win over High Point, but with the Cowboys ranking in the top 40 in offensive rebounding percentage per KenPom, this could be a trouble spot for the Boilermakers.
The team that controls the glass and makes the most 3-pointers will advance.
GO DEEPER
McNeese’s Will Wade and the art of … honesty?
No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 10 Arkansas
2:40 p.m. ET on CBS
This will be the 24th meeting between Hall of Fame coaches John Calipari and Rick Pitino. Calipari holds a slight edge with 13 wins in their series, but they’re 2-2 in NCAA Tournament battles.
There likely won’t be a ton of 3s made in this game, as both teams rank outside the top 230 in triples made and 3-point shooting percentage. But both Pitino’s Red Storm and Calipari’s Razorbacks defend at a high level and play at a fast pace.
St. John’s is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and has only allowed 75-plus points twice in the past 20 games.
Arkansas might have an advantage in the paint, as the Red Storm don’t have anyone over 6-foot-9 who plays consistent minutes. St. John’s guards are big and apply pressure on opposing ballhandlers, so dumping the ball down low to Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivisic and Trevon Brazile might be how they pull off the upset.
On the other end, four of St. John’s top five guards are 6-foot-4 or taller, including All-American and Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis, who averages 18.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
Will St. John’s stifling defense overwhelm the Razorbacks or will Calipari’s dribble-drive offense send Arkansas to the Sweet 16?
GO DEEPER
John Calipari and Rick Pitino have stood the test of time, just not together
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5 Michigan
5:15 p.m. ET on CBS
This could be the game of the day, featuring two of the best players in the country — the Aggies’ all-time leading scorer Wade Taylor and the Wolverines’ highly skilled and potential first-round draft pick Danny Wolf.
A&M is one of the most physical teams in the country, leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and ranking ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aggies’ best offense at times is throwing up shots, grabbing offensive rebounds and laying it in.
How this game is played schematically will be interesting. The Aggies have the better guards, but Michigan has two of the best bigs in the country. Guards typically win games like this, especially when the Aggies’ defense ranks in the top 55 nationally at forcing turnovers. On top of that, Michigan is one of the worst teams in the country at taking care of the ball.
But the Wolverines can win this game inside, as they rank N0. 13 in 2-point percentage. The Aggies struggle to score at times in the half court, ranking 275th or worse in 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, effective field goal percentage and free-throw percentage.
This game could be sloppy, featuring high turnover counts, missed shots and high-end defense. The first to 65 points might win.
GO DEEPER
What’s behind the Big Ten’s 25-year men’s basketball title drought?
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Drake
6:10 p.m. ET on TNT
This game will be decided by who dictates the pace. Drake plays at the slowest pace in college basketball, while the Red Raiders love to space the floor and shoot 3s.
Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin and the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz will showcase their skills in this matchup, but whose impact will give their team the edge?
The Red Raiders shot 46 3s in Thursday’s win over UNC Wilmington but only made 13 (28.3 percent). If they shoot that poorly again, they will be in trouble. Tech must find Toppin early and often in the low post. He can play in and out of double-teams and score at will. If the Red Raiders want to advance to their first Sweet 16 in the Grant McCasland era, letting Elijah Hawkins and Darrion Williams operate in the pick-and-roll is key.
As for Drake, it’s comfortable playing late into the shot clock, which causes defensive breakdowns. The Bulldogs rank in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency as they are adept at forcing turnovers and limiting possessions.
I expect the Bulldogs to mimic what UNC Willmington did and throw multiple bodies at Toppin, forcing him to make decisions.
McCasland and Drake coach Ben McCollum are close friends and know each other’s tendencies. Who will go deep into his coaching bag and exploit the other’s weaknesses?
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 9 Creighton
7:10 p.m. ET on TBS
Auburn consistently starts games slow but has been able to overcome it. If the Tigers do that Saturday evening, they could be in trouble.
Creighton runs a beautifully efficient offense, ranking No. 17 nationally per KenPom, and is spearheaded by first-team All-Big East center Ryan Kalkbrenner. Greg McDermott’s squad isn’t very deep, but he puts players in the right spots to be effective. The Bluejays lack an isolation scorer who can consistently get by his man and create for others.
Auburn doesn’t have that issue, possessing a weapon in first-team All-American Johni Broome who can attack Kalkbrenner. The Tigers have very few flaws on either end, and their length, athleticism and depth should overpower a frisky Creighton team.
I’d like to see Auburn put a team away like it did for most of the season, rather than start slow and have to exhaust a ton of energy.
GO DEEPER
If Auburn doesn’t find itself after ‘calling out,’ Creighton is going to find itself in Atlanta
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 BYU
7:45 p.m. ET on CBS
If you love offense, this is the game for you, as these teams run beautiful sets and are ranked in the top 14 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Cougars are one of the deepest teams in basketball as they have nine players who average at least 5.8 points per game. It also helps to have a potential first-round pick in Egor Demin, who is a maestro with the ball in his hands.
Wisconsin is no slouch either. The Badgers have a dynamic duo in John Tonje and John Blackwell who combine to average 34.7 points per game. They’re also the best free-throw shooting team in the country.
This game will be a high-scoring affair and feels like it could come down to the last possession, potentially challenging Michigan-Texas A&M for the matchup of the weekend.
Both teams will struggle to guard each other, but someone has to get a crucial stop to advance to the Sweet 16.
(Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
