The contract
Tampa Bay Lightning sign defenseman Victor Hedman to a four-year extension with an $8 million AAV.
After the heartbreak of losing a franchise cornerstone in Steven Stamkos on Monday, the Lightning locked up defense pillar Victor Hedman a year early.
By signing Hedman now, the team and the player avoid the roller coaster that was just experienced with Stamkos. Instead, the player can go into the season without any distractions. And management gains certainty around one of their most important players and backbone on defense. Between Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point, and now Jake Guentzel, the Lightning’s new-look core is officially all under contract for at least three years. That should give GM Julien BriseBois a firm cap number to work around each year to find a supporting cast to help extend this team’s contention window.
Most importantly for a Lightning team that has to operate on a strict budget, Hedman should bring positive value throughout the life of his next deal. An uncharacteristic down year in 2022-23 may have sparked some concern about Tampa Bay’s number one, but he bounced back this past season and picked up the pace down the stretch with his best play of the year. He has managed without a ton of support around him these last couple of seasons. With the return of Ryan McDonagh, he has the help he’s been missing to share the burden of matchup minutes which bodes well for him maintaining his high level of play.
Hedman will be 34 years old when his next contract kicks in, but he should be able to deliver positive value throughout the deal. The deal slides in just below Evolving-Hockey’s four-year projection which carried an $8.6 million cap hit. And it comes in below his forecasted worth over that span of $8.4 million.
It’s a pretty unique deal for someone of Hedman’s caliber. The closest match, per CapFriendly’s comparable tool, is Dmitry Orlov’s two-year deal signed with the Hurricanes last season — and it only comes at a 52.4 percent match which isn’t very close at all. A lack of comparables isn’t a bad thing, though. Had Tampa Bay followed the course others have taken with franchise defensemen in their early to mid-30s, this deal could have been longer. Just think of Brent Burns’ eight-year deal with the Sharks signed at 32, or Kris Letang’s six-year contract signed with Pittsburgh back in 2022 at 35. Keeping the term short is in the Lightning’s best interest.
Could it still be a burden when he hits 37? It’s possible. Players’ values tend to sink in their late-30s as age-related decline hits them. But remember: When their value starts as high as Hedman’s does, their lows can still be above average for a player of that age.
The deal itself may sting because Stamkos just signed for four years at an average annual value of $8 million yesterday in Nashville. But Hedman signing this deal plus Jake Guentzel for seven years at $9 million is the best path forward for the Lightning now and in the long run.
Contract grade: A
Fit grade: A
(Photo: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
