SOUTH BEND, Ind. — The advertisement only works if the Irish win.
As Notre Dame readies for its 12th Shamrock Series kickoff, the regular off-site games that are as much a billboard for the university as the football program itself, Marcus Freeman understands the pressure. No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) will face No. 19 Army (9-0) in Yankee Stadium (7 p.m., NBC) having won all 11 previous Shamrock Series games, including the past three against ranked competition. The Irish are two-touchdown favorites. And they’re just two wins away from making the first 12-team College Football Playoff, likely hosting at Notre Dame Stadium next month.
The Athletic’s projections give the Irish an 83 percent chance to make the field and a 54 percent chance of hosting a game. Notre Dame sent out CFP ticketing information to season ticket holders earlier this week.
So yes, it all feels like the Irish are getting closer to the postseason horizon. What Notre Dame sees when it gets there, well, that’s down to what happens on Saturday night at one of the most famous venues in sport, followed by next weekend at another iconic address.
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Here are three keys for Notre Dame vs. Army, plus a prediction.
Find the hot hands
Notre Dame’s passing game has been a work in progress all season, but there have been flickers of sustained success the past few weeks as Riley Leonard seems to be growing into Mike Denbrock’s playbook. For example, all six of Notre Dame’s top receivers caught passes against Virginia, a first since Texas A&M. That’s on top of two tight ends and two running backs.
Any idea the Irish would have a true go-to receiver has felt like wishful thinking since training camp, but Notre Dame now looks like it has an offense where any target can produce depending on the coverage. And depending on the quarterback seeing the opportunity.
“I think it’s (Leonard) knowing where all the pieces are, right?” Denbrock said. “And if he does get into trouble, where can I go with it? Or if I need to move in the pocket, where is everybody at? You know what I mean?
“I think it’s evolved as the season has gone along where he’s gotten a better feel for where all the pieces are. And he knows and I believe he has a lot of confidence in all the guys that are out there doing the job that if I give ’em a chance, they’ll make a play. And guys have been doing that.”
After Beaux Collins looked like a potential WR1 at Texas A&M, everyone else has flashed at one point or another since. Last week that was Jayden Harrison, the third of three grad transfers at wide receiver and an addition who felt more like a special teams threat than a true wideout when he signed. Instead, Harrison posted three catches for 41 yards and a touchdown against Virginia, which doesn’t include his long touchdown called back by penalty.
“On any given play, we got so many guys who can play so many different positions on the receiving end that I look out there and I’m like, ‘OK, he’s playing the one to the field, oh now he’s in the boundary, no worries,’” Leonard said. “Half the time, I don’t even have to look out there, I know these guys can make plays no matter what.”
Army QB Bryson Daily ranks 14th in the FBS in rushing yards. (Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)
Army’s quarterback is unlike anything Notre Dame has faced this season, including Navy’s Blake Horvath last month. Both run the option, but that doesn’t mean they run it the same way. In Army’s 14-3 win over North Texas two weeks ago, Daily ran 36 times for 153 yards and both touchdowns. It was a spike in job share for Daily, although he’s still averaging nearly 23 rushing attempts per game.
That means Notre Dame should have two-dozen chances to hit the 6-foot, 221-pound quarterback. The Irish know they need to take advantage.
“We gotta wrap him up,” said defensive coordinator Al Golden. “We gotta find ways to get him on the ground. We need multiple hats there. It all starts up front. We gotta direct the ball where our extra hat is and not allow them to gain an advantage at the point of attack.”
With the Navy performance already banked, Notre Dame should gain some benefit from already stopping an option team. The Irish just don’t want to overstate the magnitude of that edge, though. Daily won’t throw it nearly as much as Horvath. And Army seems more likely to stick to its plan if it falls behind early.
“That’s the first thing we cautioned the staff and the players about on Sunday is to think there’s going to be a continuation. There’s not. This is a clean break,” Golden said. “This is a different DNA: how they formation, how they are structured, where they want to attack the ball. So, it’s different. There’s certainly some crossover. I’m not saying that. But I’m saying overall the M.O. is different than Navy.”
Army leads the nation in rushing yards per game at 334.9, more than 70 yards per game ahead of second-place UCF.
Defensive tackle Howard Cross III remains questionable after suffering an ankle sprain two weeks ago against Florida State.
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Keep winning the ‘middle eight’
Notre Dame has carved out an identity in the final four minutes of the first half and the opening four minutes of the second half this season, situational football called “the middle eight” and popularized by Bill Belichick. The theory goes that a coach can manipulate the clock at the end of the second quarter to create an extra possession (or limit one), then get the ball to start the second half and put daylight between itself and an opponent.
During Notre Dame’s eight-game win streak, the Irish are winning the middle eight 97-0. That’s after playing Texas A&M and Northern Illinois to a 0-0 draw during the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second.
Freeman doesn’t see this success as random.
“I think we emphasize the two-minute offense and defense every week,” Freeman said. “We go good on good with different situations. Every single week, it could be the end of half, end of a game situation, but every week, our guys know we’re going to get a good-on-good period that we have to execute.”
Freeman created the end-of-half scenarios in practice almost by accident, counseling with athletic trainer Rob Hunt about load management in practice. That led to Freeman giving the team a mid-practice break. Then it led to simulating the end-of-half before the pause, followed by the start of the third quarter afterward.
“I’ve continued that throughout the year because I think it’s a great way to simulate a game,” Freeman said. “Hey, take a quick break. It could simulate the end of a series or end of the half, that horn blows, reload, refocus and let’s go.”
Army has won the middle eight 48-10 through nine games.
Prediction
When Army fell behind by a field goal during the first quarter at North Texas, it marked the first time the Black Knights had trailed all season. That deficit lasted less than six minutes. That’s how dominant Army has been all season. It’s also a nod to the schedule the Black Knights have played, including four coaches who have been fired and an FCS team.
Notre Dame is a huge step up. And Army knows it, which might be to the Black Knights’ benefit. Notre Dame flexes its muscle but never gets inside Army’s head (see: Navy’s six turnovers), which is enough to pull away in the fourth quarter.
Notre Dame 28, Army 13
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(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
