This year’s National League Rookie of the Year race is yet another reminder of why the award should change. The baseball writers who select the winner should be voting on two awards for each league: a rookie pitcher of the year and a rookie position player of the year — just like they do for veteran players with the MVP and Cy Young awards. The writers shouldn’t have to decide between a starting pitcher like Paul Skenes of the Pirates and a center fielder like Jackson Merrill of the Padres.
In addition, why in the world should pitchers like Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga and Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto be considered “rookies” when Imanaga pitched eight years professionally in Japan and Yamamoto pitched seven years there before coming to MLB? I’ve argued for years that international players’ experience in other leagues should count as professional service time, and they should not be eligible for Rookie of the Year honors. Their inclusion goes against the spirit of the award.
OK, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s take stock of a strong National League rookie class and discuss the state of the Rookie of the Year race. I’ll run through my top 10 eligible rookies who qualify under the criteria spelled out by MLB:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):
• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).
This ranking is based solely on performance to date this season, not on prospect status or future projections. This is how I see the NL Rookie of the Year race with about five weeks remaining in the season.
(WAR figures are according to Baseball Reference and updated as of Aug. 22.)
1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
Age: 22
Height: 6-6 Weight: 235
WAR: 4.0
Paul Skenes is a generational talent. If the voting took place today, I’m confident Skenes — who started the All-Star Game for the NL — would be the Rookie of the Year. He has gone 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA (179 ERA+) and 0.969 WHIP over 16 starts, striking out 121 in 98 innings. Those are sensational numbers but the last-place Pirates could decide to shut him down in early or mid-September to limit his workload. That would probably be the smart play for the club long term, but could cost him the award with Merrill and others not far behind.
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2. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
Age: 21
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-3 Weight: 195
WAR: 3.5
Jackson Merrill has been the best rookie position player all season. He has a legitimate shot of overtaking Skenes in the ROY race down the stretch, even if the Pirates don’t shut down the right-hander. Merrill has made the transition from shortstop to center field look easy; he ranks in the 93rd percentile in outs above average and in the 92nd percentile in arm strength. He’s contributed at the plate as well, hitting .291 with 18 home runs, 13 stolen bases, 63 runs scored, 71 RBIs and a 125 OPS+.
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After a slow start, Jackson Chourio has been as advertised. (Benny Sieu / USA Today)
3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Age: 20
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 198
WAR: 3.0
Jackson Chourio got off to a slow start, batting .206 in March/April and .215 in May. But since then he’s been the machine many expected, hitting .315 in June, .317 in July and .321 in August. Overall, he has 15 home runs, 18 stolen bases and a 110 OPS+. If Chourio continues to hit like this the rest of the way, he could catch both Skenes and Merrill by the end of the season.
4. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs
Age: 30
Height: 5-10 Weight: 175
WAR: 2.5
Shota Imanaga has been consistent all year for the Cubs, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 23 starts, and two earned runs or fewer in 16 starts. He’s 9-3 with a 3.11 ERA (134 ERA+) and 1.073 WHIP. His chase rate is elite, ranking in the 98th percentile as hitters continue to chase his split-finger out of the strike zone and his four-seamer at the top of the zone. Opposing batters are hitting .228 against his four-seamer, .237 against his split-finger, and .211 against his changeup.
5. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
Age: 22
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-11 Weight: 185
WAR: 4.0
Masyn Winn is an exceptional defensive shortstop, with range to both sides that ranks in the 80th percentile at the position and arm strength that reaches 100 mph and is in the 96th percentile. His offense has exceeded expectations — he is batting .278 with 22 doubles, four triples, 11 home runs, 61 runs scored, 44 RBIs and 10 stolen bases.
6. Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, Giants
Age: 26
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-1 Weight: 205
WAR: 2.7
The biggest rookie surprise in the NL this year is Tyler Fitzgerald, who has slashed .307/.362/.594 (170 OPS+) in 202 at-bats with 12 doubles, 14 home runs, 28 RBIs and 14 stolen bases in 17 attempts. He’s a shortstop who also plays center field and some second base. He ranks in the 85th percentile in outs above average and 99th percentile in sprint speed. He crushes fastballs, hitting .336 against them; eight of his 14 home runs have come against fastballs.
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Among NL rookies, Michael Busch ranks second in home runs with 16. (Patrick Gorski / USA Today)
7. Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs
Age: 26
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-1 Weight: 210
WAR: 2.9
The Cubs acquired Michael Busch (and right-hander Yency Almonte) from the Dodgers in January in a trade for one of their top left-handed starting pitching prospects, Jackson Ferris, and outfielder Zyhir Hope. Busch has delivered for Chicago, slashing .257/.345/.450 (120 OPS+) with 16 home runs, 57 runs scored and 47 RBIs.
8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers
Age: 26
Height: 5-10 Weight: 176
WAR: 1.6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto looked like a slam dunk to win NL Rookie of the Year when he signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason and then lived up to that contract in his first 14 games, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA. But he was placed on the IL with a strained rotator cuff on June 16 and has yet to return. The Dodgers are aiming to have him rejoin the team in mid-September, but the long IL stint takes him out of consideration for the Rookie of the Year award.
9. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
Age: 23
Height: 6-1 Weight: 190
WAR: 1.8
Jones delivered a strong first half of the season, pitching to a 3.56 ERA (116 ERA+) with a 26.4 strikeout percentage over 16 starts. He yielded three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts and two earned runs or fewer in nine starts. Opposing batters hit just .214 against his four-seamer and .194 against his wipeout slider. However, he was placed on the IL on July 4 with a right lat strain and hasn’t pitched in the majors since. He struck out 10 over five innings in his latest rehab start at Triple A and could return to the Pirates soon.
10. Tobias Myers, RHP, Brewers
Age: 26
Height: 6-1 Weight: 217
WAR: 2.0
A sixth-round pick in 2016, Tobias Myers made his big-league debut this year and has been one of the most underrated rookie pitchers in the NL, posting a 2.87 ERA over 19 starts and one relief appearance. He has 90 strikeouts and 27 walks in 103 1/3 innings (7.8 strikeouts per nine and 2.4 walks per nine). He has a 146 ERA+ but also a 3.99 FIP. He ranks in the 87th percentile in offspeed run value.
(Top image: Jackson Merrill: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images; Paul Skenes: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
