By: Will Sammon, Dennis Lin, Fabian Ardaya, Tyler Kepner and Eno Sarris
For some teams in Major League Baseball, the chase for Roki Sasaki could not be measured in mere months. It lasted for years. One of those teams, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, concluded that pursuit on Friday night by landing the star pitcher from Japan.
The Dodgers established themselves early on as favorites, and they maintained their position despite the rival San Diego Padres emerging as one of three finalists, alongside the Toronto Blue Jays, who once again must stomach missing out on a front-line free agent.
Our experts weigh in on one of the most consequential moves of the offseason.
Dodgers a fit for Sasaki, though it may be imperfect
Soon after Sasaki’s Instagram post went live, multiple club officials from one of the two other finalists said they always felt like the odds were against them.
So, surprise, surprise, right? The reality is the Dodgers always seemed best positioned to land Sasaki. They boasted star power from Japan. They configured a roster able to carry out a six-man rotation with several ace starters and optionable relievers. And they strategized their entire international bonus pool spending around Sasaki for the past couple of years.
All along, though, I heard player development would play a key role for Sasaki. The Dodgers routinely churn out quality young players. But they have trouble keeping pitchers healthy. That’s a concern. And it’s something Sasaki will have to answer. Considering how much money Sasaki left on the table by choosing to play in MLB as early as he did, it’s paramount that he stays healthy before getting a shot at free agency — which won’t come again for a handful of years.
Scouts and executives described Sasaki as reserved, somewhat quiet and seriously committed to his craft. They questioned how he would fare in a large market. Los Angeles is a large market. But the club’s other megastars can shield him from the spotlight. — Will Sammon
Adding Sasaki a step toward Dodgers realizing their ambitions in Japan
The Dodgers have laid out a grand vision, hoping to channel their mass of resources and pour it into a market they’ve already made inroads in. It surprised no one that, after committing a combined billion dollars to Japanese superstars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the landscape of Dodger Stadium changed. The Dodgers brand flourished, exceeding even the franchise’s robust expectations even after winning the World Series. “Our business,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said earlier this winter, “is very healthy.”
Last winter, the Dodgers committed a combined billion dollars to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. This winter, they inked Roki Sasaki. (Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
If Los Angeles’ aim was to corner the Japanese market — and that is among its stated goals — then signing Ohtani and Yamamoto was a sturdy foundation to a history that included the signings of Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda, Kenta Maeda and others. Signing Roki Sasaki was a flourish, and a bargain, to throw on top. The Dodgers have coveted Sasaki for years, reserving the most available space in the 2024 international signing class on the off chance that Sasaki came to Major League Baseball before his 25th birthday. When that day came and Sasaki was part of the 2025 class instead, the franchise cleared its books. His decision to land in Los Angeles felt preordained because it, in many ways, felt like the obvious choice. — Fabian Ardaya
For all his talent, Sasaki comes with a few question marks
First things first: Every team in baseball would love to sign a pitcher with Roki Sasaki’s upside to a minor-league deal. He’d be a top-10 prospect on any list with his high-velocity fastball, devastating splitter and elite per-inning numbers in a league as competitive as Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan.
That said … Sasaki doesn’t come without some question marks.
Indeed, his strikeout-minus-walk rate over the past three years in Japan is the best of any Japanese pitcher who has leaped to the majors. But it is also true that that same rate — which is immensely powerful when it comes to predicting the future for a pitcher — fell last season, to fifth-best among league-hoppers. His 21.6 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate last year would’ve ranked north of the rate Shota Imanaga showed in the three years before he came over and south of what Japan saw from Masahiro Tanaka.
His slightly worse season in 2024 came with a reduction in stuff. His fastball lost 2 miles per hour, on average, and though at just under 97 mph it’s still impressive gas, the pitch does not have elite shape and may be more dependent on that velocity than other fastballs (like Imanaga’s high-ride example). The Dodgers may counteract this by altering the shape or helping him develop a sinker and/or a cutter, to give him multiple fastballs to confound hitters.
Sasaki also doesn’t spin the ball well. His spin rates are below the MLB median across the board, so his breaking balls have been inferior to his split-finger for most of his career. When we saw him at his best in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, he was throwing his slider 89 mph and the lack of spin didn’t matter much. Last season, that pitch was under 84 mph, and it didn’t perform as well. Spin isn’t something you can coach up easily, but he may be able to recover the velocity on the slider.
The splitter is the key, and it’s a wonderful pitch. It should function as his primary out-pitch and give hitters fits. No notes here.
Roki Sasaki’s splitter might be the best pitch in the world. Good lord. pic.twitter.com/DR8NE6jkiQ
— Jacob Brownson (@brownsonjacob2) January 14, 2025
All in all, his combination of strengths and weaknesses presents a couple of possible comparable pitchers. Sasaki might be a high-velocity Kodai Senga, or he may present as a peak version of Kevin Gausman. Neither has thrown a plus breaking ball so far, but both have been excellent pitchers at their best. With Sasaki’s age, he has the chance to improve beyond those two comps and blaze his own trail. — Eno Sarris
GO DEEPER
Roki Sasaki has top-shelf stuff. How would it translate to Major League Baseball?
A crushing outcome for Padres, a franchise in flux
The Padres already were having a deflating winter, what with their complete lack of major-league moves and a legal dispute between family members of late owner Peter Seidler. Now, their nearest and most hated rival has put together an all-time offseason. Again.
Friday’s crushing development need not be the end for San Diego. Only months ago, the Padres nearly toppled Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. But the Padres arguably needed Sasaki’s combination of low cost and No. 1 starter upside more than anyone else. They hoped — for months, if not years — that he would not end up with their chief opponent.
With those dreams now dashed, the Padres face a significantly more difficult road to returning to the postseason in 2025. And the long-term future of a franchise weighed down by bloated contracts feels more precarious than it did yesterday. — Dennis Lin
Another star in the NL sky – and a dream rotation for LA
It’s wild to think of the rotation the Dodgers could roll out next season — especially in the context of what they just did. Last fall, the Dodgers won the World Series with Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and an opener getting the starts against the Yankees. Now look.
It never works out so smoothly, especially for the Dodgers, who have a grim trend lately of rotation attrition. But in theory, this could be their 2025 rotation (in alphabetical order, because they’re all aces):
Tyler Glasnow
Clayton Kershaw
Shohei Ohtani
Roki Sasaki
Blake Snell
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
And that’s before you get to Ben Casparius, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack, Dustin May, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone — and probably the ghost of Dazzy Vance, too.
The thing about it, though? I kinda wish that Sasaki had picked the Toronto Blue Jays, who remain everyone’s favorite bridesmaid.
The National League was already deeper, and this winter its members have poached even more star power from the American League: Juan Soto (Yankees to Mets), Corbin Burnes (Orioles to Diamondbacks), Kyle Tucker (Astros to Cubs) and Justin Verlander (Astros to Giants). Heck, even longtime AL skipper Terry Francona came out of retirement to manage the Reds.
Then again, superteams are fun, too, because the stakes are fascinating. The Dodgers keep pushing themselves ever higher on their pedestal — so they’ll either end baseball’s quarter-century streak without a repeat champion, or view themselves as a failure if they don’t. Can’t wait to see which. — Tyler Kepner
GO DEEPER
Roki Sasaki announces he’s going to the Dodgers: Where do the Padres turn?
(Photo of Sasaki: The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images)
