RENTON, Wash. —The Seattle Seahawks host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in a game that will test whether coach Mike Macdonald and his new staff can avoid falling into an old habit that plagued the previous regime.
In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Seahawks often became overly reliant on quarterback Geno Smith and the passing game to be successful. At times, that was enough. Seattle ranked 11th in points per drive over the course of Smith’s first two seasons as the starter (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise).
Smith had eight game-winning drives in those two seasons and led the league in that category in 2023 with five. But Seattle’s recipe for success was largely unsustainable, even against bad teams. In 2022, the Seahawks were swept by the NFC South despite all four teams finishing with losing records. Last year, the Seahawks were 3-7 against playoff teams and, at one point, lost four straight games to teams that made the postseason.
Seattle’s 23-20 win over New England on Sunday was a blast from the past on offense in that regard. Smith had more dropbacks (48) than Zach Charbonnet had rushing yards (38). Smith completed a career-high 33 passes, Seattle had two 100-yard receivers, and Smith led another game-winning drive. It was enough to win, but Macdonald knows that won’t always cut it.
“Moving forward, especially in those situations where we need to run the ball, we’re going to have to get that done,” Macdonald said.
Entering Week 3, the Seahawks rank 31st in EPA per play on running back carries, ahead of only the Las Vegas Raiders. On attempts by running backs, the Seahawks are 25th in yards per carry (3.6), 21st in yards (153) and 28th in success rate.
“We’ve got to find our calling card,” Macdonald said Wednesday of the running game. “We’ve got a lot of good stuff going on, but we’re trying to find our sweet spot right now. That’s where we’re at. I think we have a good plan started right now. Excited to see us go do it today in practice.”
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Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver worked with Macdonald in Baltimore and runs a version of Seattle’s scheme. Through two weeks, Miami has allowed running backs to average 5.0 yards per carry, and they are tied for fifth-most in the league. The Dolphins rank 21st in defensive success rate on running back carries. However, the sample size is small enough at this point in the year that Seattle can’t just expect to be better at running the ball because the Dolphins haven’t put good run defense on tape.
Also, the Seahawks could once again be without running back Ken Walker III, who missed Week 2 with an oblique injury and didn’t practice Wednesday. Charbonnet rushed for 38 yards on 14 carries with a 1-yard touchdown run versus New England. Against Denver in Week 1, he had just 12 yards on eight carries. Charbonnet has had to make something out of nothing on most of his runs. His yards before contact average is negative, meaning he’s often hit in the backfield before reaching the line of scrimmage. He’s one of five qualifying running backs whose average is negative (minimum 10 carries).
Many factors contribute to having a good ground game, but as Macdonald said this week, Seattle’s issue has been blocking. The Seahawks rank 31st in run block win rate, according to ESPN.
“We’ve got to move people, man,” Macdonald said. “Right now we’re not moving them. So that’s a challenge for us moving forward.”
Seattle came into the season with questions about its interior offensive line, and that group has gotten off to a great start. The right guard spot remains unsettled. Anthony Bradford played most of the snaps in Week 1, but he split reps with right guard Christian Haynes in Week 2 (Haynes played 14 snaps). Bradford’s four accepted penalties — three holds, one unnecessary roughness and a false start — are tied for the league lead. This week, Macdonald described the right guard situation as “ongoing” and said Haynes, a third-round rookie, has been “steadily improving.”
“The mentality is right; some of the technique stuff isn’t right now,” Macdonald said of Haynes. “That’ll get cleaned up. He’s a guy that we’re going to be counting on moving forward. Just keep hammering away, man. The opportunities are going to be there. Take advantage of them when they are. There are not going to be as many as he probably wants but he’ll create those by going out there and producing.”
Macdonald said rotating Bradford and Haynes during games is “probably not” sustainable for the entire season. But Macdonald said, “If that’s what it’s going to take for us to play the best, then we’ll do it. You want continuity in your O-line; right now, we’re not in the ideal spot. But we feel like (a rotation) is the best thing for us.”
Seahawks have a long list of non-participants today. That list includes Ken Walker and Boye Mafe.
George Fant was a limited participate. That list is long too. pic.twitter.com/OJFRvh67JF
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) September 18, 2024
After the win over Denver, Smith praised offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb for his willingness to stay with the run game in the second half despite very little success in the first two quarters. Seattle’s front line rewarded his faith with a better showing in the final two frames. A slow start against Miami may again test Grubb’s patience. As it pertains to the run game, Grubb this week has emphasized “being on the same page, being physical at the point of attack and everyone doing their job,” left tackle Charles Cross said.
As Seattle demonstrated against New England, the Seahawks have enough firepower on offense to move the ball even if the run game isn’t contributing. Tyler Lockett had a team-high 77 receiving yards in Week 1 and then caught just two passes for 15 yards in Week 2 (he accounted for 32 crucial yards via defensive pass interference penalties). DK Metcalf (10 catches, 129 yards, one touchdown) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12 catches, 117 yards) provided enough through the air to supplement the lack of a running game. That was 2023 first-round pick Smith-Njigba’s first time going over 100 yards, a feat Metcalf said signals bad news for their upcoming opponents.
“It’s bad for the defenses that try to cover us from here on out,” Metcalf said. “You got Lock, me, Jax and you still haven’t seen Noah (Fant). You saw Ken Week 1. Zach Charbonnet still has to break out. I think it’s just a ticking time bomb for all our stars on offense to have their game.”
The caveat to Metcalf’s point is that possessing all that firepower in the passing game does not guarantee red zone success. Seattle has scored just one touchdown on four red zone drives this year. The lone score was Charbonnet’s 1-yard run, which came after Lockett drew a penalty in the end zone on third-and-5.
One of the “failed” trips featured Seattle settling for a game-winning field goal in overtime, but the other drive ending with a field goal in the New England game came at the end of regulation when Smith was stuffed on a quarterback sneak on third-and-1 from the 15-yard line with 1:43 left to play. Instead of attempting to extend the drive on fourth-and-1, Macdonald took a delay of game penalty and tied the game with a field goal. Seattle had a separate drive stall at New England’s 23-yard line in the third quarter because Charbonnet was stuffed on fourth-and-1 due to poor blocking. The closer Seattle gets to the end zone, the more important the run game becomes.
The Seahawks want the run game to be their bread and butter. They have the talent to win games through the air, but competent clubs can exploit a one-dimensional offense. The previous staff learned that the hard way. One of the most important subplots this week is whether Macdonald and his staff avoid that same issue and continue their strong start to this season.
(Photo: Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)
