Seven NFL records to track in Week 18, plus Colts dysfunction, playoff sleepers

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Today, we’re looking at this season’s record-breakers, the dysfunctional Colts and the five worst playoff teams.

Quick trivia before we dive in: Who did Jayden Daniels surpass by setting the NFL’s rookie quarterback rushing record last Sunday? The answer is at the bottom of our first section. Let’s talk records.

Record Watch: From Ditka to Bowers

If you played tight end through the 1950s, you were typically attached to the hip of an offensive tackle. Occasionally, you caught a pass. That changed in 1961, when a rookie named Mike Ditka revolutionized the position. 

In just 14 games, he caught 56 passes for 1,076 yards and 12 touchdowns. No tight end had ever approached that trio, which each ranked among that season’s top five receivers.

Among rookie tight ends, two of his records then stood for 62 years, even as two new record-holders overtook the receptions category:

This year, another 22-year-old phenom wearing No. 89 —  Brock Bowers — has already rewritten the record books, setting new rookie TE marks for receptions (108, a record for any rookie, besting Puka Nacua’s 105 from last season) and yards (1,144) with one game to play.

Ditka’s touchdown record will remain intact (Bowers has just four), as should Nacua’s for rookie receiving yardage (1,486), but plenty of other records could be set in Week 18.

Here are seven more records to watch, starting with the oldest. For each, I’ll assign a likelihood of either ✅(for broken) or ⛔️ (for untouched).

1984: Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yards. ⛔️ Last Sunday, the former Rams star, now 64, explained why he hopes Saquon Barkley — currently at 2,005 yards — falls short. From USA Today:

“These people who say, ‘Records are meant to be broken,’ you ain’t got no record. When you get those records, you want to hang on to them.”

Dickerson can take solace in Eagles HC Nick Sirianni “probably” resting Barkley in an otherwise meaningless Week 18 game. (Worth noting Barkley’s carried the ball 34 fewer times than Dickerson did.)

Of course, Barkley setting that record against his former Giants would be poetic.

If Barkley rests, he will also finish 226 scrimmage yards short of tying Chris Johnson’s 2,509 from 2009.

1996: Jerry Rice’s 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. ✅ Mike Evans’ career began with 10 straight four-digit seasons, something even the GOAT didn’t accomplish, having assembled 927 as a rookie. This season, despite Evans missing three games with a hamstring injury, he’ll just need 85 yards against the Saints to tie Rice, albeit with the benefit of a 17th game.

2003: Torry Holt’s 6,784 receiving yards through five seasons. ✅ Despite missing seven games last season, Justin Jefferson smashed this record by 2024’s midseason. The NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (97.1), he is now at 7,378 yards with one game to play. To catch him, Ja’Marr Chase would need to set a single-season receiving yardage mark next season.

2011: Aaron Rodgers’ 122.5 season passer rating. ⛔️ Lamar Jackson’s current 121.6 is the second-best mark ever, assisted by his 3,955 passing yards, 39 touchdown passes and mere four interceptions. His Ravens play the Browns this weekend, but his rating against them during a loss earlier this year (101.8) dropped his average.

2018: Drew Brees’ 74.4 completion percentage. ⛔️ If Tua Tagovailoa (72.9, third-best all time), Baker Mayfield (71.7, fifth) and Jared Goff (71.4, sixth) all finish with completion rates of 70-plus, they’ll become the first trio to do so in a single season. 2024 quarterbacks could also finish with the highest average completion percentage (65.3) in NFL history.

As for besting Brees’ record, Tagovailoa would have needed to complete at least 25 of 25 passes on Sunday against the Jets, but he’s missing that game due to injury.

2020: Justin Herbert’s 31 touchdown passes as a rookie. ⛔️ Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are each at 25, making it even more impressive that Herbert set this record in just 15 games.

2021: Receiving triple crown. ✅ Since 2000, only Cooper Kupp and Steve Smith Sr. have led the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns in the same season. Expect Ja’Marr Chase to join that group, as he currently has significant breathing room in each category:

Another record to spotlight: Myles Garrett’s 14-plus sacks in four consecutive seasons. An incredible feat, considering the constant double teams and uncalled holds he regularly faces. (After eight years and one playoff win, this could be his last year in Cleveland.)

Trivia answer: As for Jayden Daniels’ rookie quarterback rushing record, the previous holder was Robert Griffin III, who had 815 yards on the ground in just 15 games, one fewer than Daniels so far.

Now, let’s talk about the wrong kind of distinctions.

Dysfunction in Indy: ‘There is no vision’

Sunday’s embarrassing 45-33 loss to the previously 2-13 Giants cost the Colts (now 7-9) a shot at the playoffs. It could also cost their quarterback, head coach and general manager their jobs.

This morning, The Athletic’s Zak Keefer and James Boyd take you inside the Colts’ mess. In just the past four days:

• In that must-win game, their defense allowed those 45 points to a team that had entered the week averaging an NFL-low 14.3.
• Media titan Pat McAfee posted a rant on the state of his former team: “In the biggest moments, everybody with a brain knew they’d crack, and they did.”
• Anthony Richardson, their 22-year-old sophomore quarterback, revealed he’s been dealing with a lower back issue that “might be chronic.”

Zooming out, an anonymous veteran player summed up the problem to James:

“There’s no vision. From the top down — from the front office, to the coaches, to the players — no one is ever on the same page, and every year at the end we’re sitting here losing. If you look at the best teams in the league, they all have a vision and they commit to it. There’s no vision here.”

Oof. I recommend you read the full story here.

Final Power Rankings: Playoff teams to buy or sell

As the final weekend kicks off on Saturday, 12 of 14 playoff positions are set, with the Buccaneers and Broncos likely to join. (For a refresh on this weekend’s playoff stakes, see Monday’s newsletter.)

We know the top-level contenders, but today, I want to take another look at the next tier. How many of them could go on surprise runs? The bottom five of the current 12, according to The Athletic’s latest Power Rankings:

No. 8: Packers (11-5). Ready for a 🤯 stat? The Packers’ five losses have been by a combined 22 points. The problem: Each loss was against an NFC opponent (the Eagles, plus the Vikings and Lions twice each) still in Green Bay’s way.

No. 9: Rams (10-6). Winners of six of their last seven, this team has beaten the Vikings and Bills and narrowly lost in overtime to Week 1’s fully healthy Lions. They can hang with anyone.

No. 10: Chargers (10-6). Jim Harbaugh’s first year saw the Bolts double their wins, thanks to one of the league’s best defenses. It doesn’t hurt that their offense might be peaking at the perfect time.

No. 11: Steelers (10-6). Now that they’ve lost three straight, their Russell Wilson experiment seems destined to end with an early playoff exit, typical for a team that hasn’t won a postseason game since 2016.

No. 15: Texans (9-7). Last on this list, largely due to their offensive decline: “Houston has dropped from 12th in yards per play and 15th in EPA per play a year ago to 24th and 25th this year,” notes Josh Kendall.

To round it out, the Bucs rank No. 12, and the Broncos No. 14. If they make it into the field, we’ll include them in next week’s fuller playoff preview.

Before we go, Tuesday’s most-clicked: Zak Keefer’s incredible interview with Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman. Read it here.

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(Photo: Graphic by The Athletic)