In November, BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini told The Athletic in crystal-clear terms how the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl would be a huge problem for the sportsbook given the big money bettors stood to make with the Lions hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Most other books shared a similar sentiment, as Detroit’s hot start had attracted a multitude of Super Bowl futures wagers from fans eager to see the Lions pivot from their losing ways.
“[Detroit is], by far, our biggest Super Bowl liability and pretty much our only one at this point,” Cipollini said then. After the NFL’s divisional round, Cipollini and his peers are no longer losing sleep over the Lions.
The Lions were massive 8.5-point favorites going into their divisional-round matchup against the Washington Commanders, and bettors were not only laying the points with the team from Motor City but also taking them to win straight up and throwing them into multi-leg parlays. Unfortunately for Detroit fans and bettors alike, all those betting tickets got ripped up after Washington’s stunning 45-31 upset win Saturday.
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“The Lions losing was a great result for the futures market at BetMGM,” Cipollini told The Athletic over the weekend. “On top of knocking our biggest liability out of the running, the Commanders’ win also ruined the popular chalk moneyline parlay of Chiefs, Lions and Ohio State.”
Bettors were all-in on Detroit over the weekend. Out of the 210,000 bets tracked on the Lions-Commanders game by Pikkit Sports, a bet-tracking app that records the volume and value of sports wagers, there were only 1,774 bets recorded on the Washington moneyline. The disparity made sense as the Lions owned the NFL’s best regular season record over the past two seasons, going 27-7 with a .794 win percentage. In short, there was a reason why Detroit was a touchdown favorite as the game kicked off.
“The Lions losing outright knocked out virtually every teaser and moneyline parlay that was placed for the weekend,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata — a BetMGM operation in Atlantic City — texted The Athletic on Sunday.
Detroit opened the offseason in the +1200 range to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks. After going 15-2 and winning the NFC North, those odds significantly shifted as the season progressed, with the Lions becoming the consensus favorites to win it all at +300 going into the playoffs. Detroit to win the NFC was also the most popular futures bet tracked by Pikkit Sports.
The Commanders’ victory, led by a terrific performance by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, provided the biggest upset of these NFL playoffs. The win sent Washington to its first NFC Championship Game since 1991.
“The Lions dominated all season long, and bettors gravitated toward their high-flying offense,” long-time bookmaker and director of sportsbook operations at DraftKings Sportsbook Johnny Avello said. “The upset loss to Washington was certainly a win for the book and bucked the trend of favorites dominating.”
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The sixth-seeded Commanders will join the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles, No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills and No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs as they vie for spots in the Super Bowl.
With the Lions’ exit, the Philadelphia Eagles are now the new favorites to win the Super Bowl (+180), followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (+240).
(Photo of Detroit fans: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
