Arsenal have finally eaten into Liverpool’s lead at the top of the table.
Arne Slot’s team had threatened to run away with the 2024-25 Premier League, but after their draw at Nottingham Forest on Tuesday and Arsenal’s win over Tottenham Hotspur the following night, the gap is down to four points — albeit Liverpool have a game in hand.
Speaking about Arsenal’s title ambitions in December, their manager Mikel Arteta said: “We have to continue to be like a hammer; be there every day, every day, every day. And if somebody wins all the matches, congratulate him and let’s go to the next season. But if they don’t, which in history hasn’t happened, we’ll be there.”
So, is there hope for Arsenal fans yet?
What does last season tell us?
The recent past may give us some clues, as there is precedent for Arsenal hitting their stride in the second half of a season.
On this weekend last year, Arsenal had just returned to the UK from a midwinter training break in Dubai. They had played 21 Premier League games, with a points tally of 43 games. It is an identical league position to now.
There was a five-point gap to leaders Liverpool — one more than the same club’s cushion today — and Arsenal were third not second, with Manchester City also ahead of them. The only notable difference is Liverpool have that game in hand — the rearranged match against Everton, the last ever league Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, now set to be played next month.
From that point, Arsenal hit a period of blistering form.
They returned from Dubai galvanised, embarking on an extraordinary run of 16 wins from 18 games. By the end of the campaign in May, they had overhauled Liverpool but not quite caught City, who secured a record fourth consecutive Premier League title.
Of course, replicating that remarkable run is easier said than done. Arsenal have had no sunshine break this season to recharge batteries and refocus minds — although they are considering one around the February 8-9 weekend dedicated to the FA Cup’s fourth round having already gone out of that competition after the defeat on penalties by Manchester United last Sunday.
They’re also without key forward Bukayo Saka through injury so, while Arteta’s assertion about the likelihood of Liverpool winning “all the matches” is fair, Arsenal don’t exactly look primed to do that either.
Arsenal stormed the second half of last season but don’t have Saka this time around (Zac Goodwin/PA Images via Getty Images)
Arsenal only really found their winning formula in the second half of last season, shifting Kai Havertz up to play centre-forward and recalibrating their midfield accordingly.
With Saka out following last month’s hamstring injury and questions over when we’ll see fellow forward Gabriel Jesus again as he faces anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) knee surgery, Arteta will need a similar piece of tactical alchemy to transform Arsenal’s title chances.
And even if Arsenal can gather some momentum, they’re still reliant on Liverpool slipping up.
How do Arsenal and Liverpool’s run-ins compare?
Hope may lie in the respective fixture lists.
Arsenal faced a taxing start to their season, and will hope the load lightens on the run-in.
The Athletic’s research using Opta’s power rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs — suggests Liverpool did actually have the easier start. Now Arsenal will aim to close the gap as the fixtures balance themselves out.
Of Arsenal’s remaining eight away league games, six of their opponents are in the bottom seven places in the table today. One obvious exception is the trip to Anfield in early May — which Arteta will doubtless view as an opportunity to substantially make up lost ground.
By contrast, this week’s visit to Nottingham Forest marked the start of a period in which Liverpool have to visit seven of the current top 10. They face a particularly challenging run-in, facing Tottenham and Chelsea as well as Arsenal in their final five matches.
That Liverpool-Arsenal match, currently scheduled for May 10, a Saturday, but with the potential to be moved for live TV coverage, looms large.
There’s a chance Liverpool will be virtually over the line by then, as there are only two more full rounds of fixtures after that, but if Arsenal can stay within a few points, they’ll continue to hold out hope. Arteta’s message to his players will be: let’s ensure that match at Anfield is meaningful.
The coming weeks could also prove a defining period.
The Athletic has used Opta’s power rankings to assess the difficulty of every team’s next eight Premier League games.
Having just drawn at Forest, Liverpool face tricky trips to Brentford, Bournemouth and Manchester City over this period, which runs to the middle of March. Arsenal’s own fixture list does not look easy, however. They will be buoyed by that north London derby win, but have a tough game at home against Aston Villa today, as well as visits to both Manchester clubs and Forest.
What’s clear is that, already trailing by four points and with that game in hand against them, Arsenal’s margin for error is small.
Injuries have already had an influence on results and keeping key players fit for the remainder of the season will be vital. In that respect, Arsenal potentially being eliminated from both domestic cup competitions before Liverpool go out of either — given Newcastle’s 2-0 lead over them after the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final at the Emirates — could prove significant.
A lot may come down to whether Arsenal strengthen via the transfer market before the winter window closes on February 3. Right now, they don’t seem to have the depth to stay the course with Liverpool. An addition or two in the next couple of weeks could significantly improve their title chances.
(Top photo: Catherine Ivill/AMA/Getty Images)
