OTTAWA — Eleven games isn’t a large sample size to define a team that plays in an 82-game season. Now, imagine only going off of three games.
That seems to be the vibe if you listen to the Ottawa Senators. According to them, their last two or three games following a road trip that ended with a thud in Colorado are close to how the real Senators want to play under new head coach Travis Green.
“After the Colorado game, I think we were extremely disappointed with how we played there,” Tkachuk said Saturday night after the Senators won 3-0 over the Seattle Kraken. “I think there’s been an emphasis since then to never let that happen again. I think the last three games have shown the way that we need to play and, to be honest with you, that we want and like playing. Those are the types of games that we thrive under. As a team, we’re going to just keep building off that.
“We definitely aren’t a group that’s going to be complacent with wins and effort, we want more.”
“They’re close,” Green said when asked about the playing style he wants from his team. “We’ve done it, I don’t know many games, 11 games. We’ve been close some nights. I thought the last two games, arguably, were our two best games of the year. So, I’m happy with that. It’s not just how I want to play, it’s how they want to play, too.”
The Senators have every right to set the bar high in a market desperate for the postseason since their last appearance in 2017. A 6-5-0 record is fine in the Atlantic Division, where most teams continue to ride along in the peloton and only the Florida Panthers have created some separation from the rest of the group at the top. More importantly, the Senators remain above their fellow playoff-starved brethren in Buffalo and Detroit whose season-opening starts have made their fans more nervous than hopeful. And we haven’t even touched on Boston’s underwhelming start and Montreal’s languishing in the Atlantic basement.
But through 11 games, the Senators are still piecing their identity together. The picture has been made clearer in their last three games, though.
Since their 5-4 loss against the Colorado Avalanche, which wasn’t as close as the score suggests, the Senators have allowed just three goals in three games. They walloped the St. Louis Blues who barely showed up in an 8-1 loss and were stonewalled by Igor Sheshterkin in a 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers before shutting out the Kraken on Saturday.
We’ve harped on the Senators’ defence before, but at least for now, they’ve limited the uneasiness. Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker have held down the fort as a third pair as best as they can thanks to their physical play and offence. A mea culpa can also be administered to the Senators’ goaltending now that Anton Forsberg has two shutouts to his name this season and Linus Ullmark was very close to getting one against the Blues last week.
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In each of their last three games, the Senators showed off their playing style as a fast-paced team that can burn teams in transition while turning defence into offence, flash skill and puck movement in the offensive zone, and work their way toward the net on tough chances. They’ve flashed these attributes in games before their three-game sample size, but not with the same success. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Senators posted their three highest high-danger chance rates in each of their last three games and improved on suppressed chances from opposing teams in high-danger areas.
Even against Seattle, the Senators did not win the possession battle by the game’s end but dominated most of the game at five-on-five. The Kraken tipped the possession scales in their favour in the third period when they were pressing for a goal. But Ottawa benefitted from having good goaltending from Forsberg. The Senators are even getting success from their fourth line of Nick Cousins, Zack MacEwen and Adam Gaudette, both in terms of goals and underlying numbers.
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“When you look at the whole year I think there might be two games we didn’t perform our best,” Tim Stützle said.
The Senators are now tied for the seventh-fewest goals allowed (33) and have the seventh-best goal differential in the NHL, a tangible sign that the team is responding well to Green’s zonal defensive structure and not straying away from it as it did earlier in the season.
“They’re getting it, they’re buying into it, they’re committing to it,” Green said. “D-zone coverage, it’s not just competing. It’s competing but also being smart. It’s buying in, it’s listening. Learning, reading off each other. They’ve been a committed group.”
Stützle is among the league’s best scorers with six goals and 16 points in 11 games. Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux have also helped the team hum along. Senators fans are unafraid to tell you their No. 1 defenceman Jake Sanderson not only deserves consideration for the United States at the 4 Nations Face-Off but also Norris Trophy discussion.
Oh, and the Senators’ power play remains top three in the league with a 33.3 percent conversion rate due to their fluid movement, ability and sustained offensive zone time.
Tkachuk snipes his second powerplay goal of the night to make it 5-0!! #GoSensGo
Stützle and Sanderson assist. Crazy how well they’re moving the puck. pic.twitter.com/xMIvTVPWFH
— Everyday Sens (@EverydaySens) October 30, 2024
Ottawa still has its flaws and shortcomings, of course. Despite its recent success, Ottawa is middle of the pack in Corsi and chances against per 60 minutes. Despite recent performances, the Senators also remain in the bottom quarter of the league in high-danger chances and expected goals per 60 minutes. The injury bug has hit players like Artem Zub and Shane Pinto while David Perron has been out of the lineup for personal reasons, meaning they haven’t been rolling at full strength recently.
The Senators are also in November, a month filled with horrors and dashed dreams of postseason glory in recent history. The last time the Senators ended the month of November with a winning record was in 2016-17, the last time they made the postseason. They may not need to have the month of their lives in November, but a drop in play will feel like déjà vu in the nation’s capital.
Sens’ Novembers since 2016-17
| NHL season | Record |
|---|---|
|
2023-24 |
4-5-0 |
|
2022-23 |
4-9-1 |
|
2021-22 |
1-10-1 |
|
2020-21 |
N/A |
|
2019-20 |
8-8-0 |
|
2018-19 |
7-7-1 |
|
2017-18 |
3-7-1 |
|
2016-17 |
9-5-1 |
Note: The 2020-21 season began in Jan. 2021.
If the Senators are truly serious about being a playoff team, achieving success in a month that has caused them a lot of pain will go a long way to proving themselves right. They’ll also need to close out some Western Conference opponents and improve on last year’s paltry 1-14-1 record against such teams while on the road.
But it calls on the Senators to remain consistent and actually build off what they’ve started in their last three games.
“We’re obviously a young team but we’ve got more experience than before,” Forsberg said. “Everybody’s hungrier. We know how it’s been before. And no one (wants) to be in the same situation. So, everybody’s really motivated to make a hard push for the playoffs.”
(Top photo: Andrea Cardin / NHLI via Getty Images)
