The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Game 1 lineup appears to include a few sure(ish) things:
1. A first line of Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
2. Assuming a clean bill of health, defence pairings that include Jake McCabe with Chris Tanev, Morgan Rielly with Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit with Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
3. Anthony Stolarz as the starting goalie.
What else coach Craig Berube will do is still in question.
What’s the ideal lineup for Game 1 against the Ottawa Senators? Let’s sort through the decisions Berube and his staff face and make some picks.
Who plays next to Tavares and Nylander?
Everything up front flows from this decision, and it’s evident in the recent shuffling that Berube hasn’t made up his mind about who plays left wing next to John Tavares and William Nylander.
Just this month, Berube has cycled through Bobby McMann, Calle Järnkrok and, for the first time since October, Max Domi. And that’s not even it for viable candidates.
Who has the best case?
Let’s start with McMann.
Highs for the line have mostly come with McMann around, charging down loose pucks and turning them over so his starrier linemates can go to work. No other viable option (other than Knies, who has become a first-line lock) can bring the speed/size combo that McMann can — the speed, especially. McMann’s top speed ranks in the NHL’s 95th percentile.
The Leafs have pumped teams 11-5 in McMann’s minutes on the line, winning around 60 percent of the expected goals.
The hiccup is that it comes and goes. McMann gets hot and scores in bunches, then cools right down. He becomes less noticeable physically during those cold spells (he hasn’t scored in the last 10 games) and loses ice time from there. He has also never played in an NHL playoff game. Playing McMann in the top six leaves no legitimate scoring threats on the bottom two lines save for Nick Robertson, who may or may not play.
Then there’s Domi. He was the head coach’s first choice to play with Tavares and Nylander in each of his first two seasons as a Leaf. And in both cases, that coach — first Sheldon Keefe, then Berube — dropped him from there after just two games.
Domi’s playmaking has popped during this more recent spin. But so has his questionable decision-making with the puck and defensive limitations, the same stuff that’s kept him out of the top six for much of his time as a Leaf (and elsewhere).
Berube could have Domi on the line when the Leafs head out on the road for Games 3 and 4 in the hopes of building four somewhat dependable forward lines, namely one that uses the more reliable Pontus Holmberg in that 3C spot in place of Domi.
The recently constructed line of McMann, Holmberg and Robertson has been effective, for whatever that’s worth.
Holmberg might be the most boring choice to play with Tavares and Nylander. The numbers for the Holmberg-Tavares-Nylander trio, though, are shockingly good: The Leafs have won 65 percent of the expected goals in 120 minutes, strong offensively and defensively.
Holmberg brings safety and reliability to the line. He’s going to be in the right spots defensively, he’s going to take care of the puck, and he might even draw some penalties. There’s also the potential for a more dangerous third line if Holmberg plays in the top six. The downside is significant, though, and that’s Holmberg’s super-limited offensive game. He has two five-on-five goals all season and doesn’t offer much creativity as a playmaker, meaning Tavares and Nylander are almost playing short-handed on offence when Holmberg is by their side — hardly advantageous when goals will be even harder to come by.
Another boring choice: Järnkrok.
Glimpses of the old Järnkrok, the speed especially, have been infrequent since he debuted after missing the first 60 games of the season with injury. He hasn’t played much with Tavares and Nylander over the years and for good reason, as the fit has been kind of blah.
Then there’s Max Pacioretty, who has logged the most time (179 minutes) on the line this season. In fact, Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander is the Leafs’ third-most-utilized line this season.
Early on, the combination clicked. Four of Pacioretty’s five five-on-five goals this season were set up by Tavares, including this one:
Pacioretty is big and physical, he is smart, he has some skill left and he has a well of experience. That all, in theory, makes him a strong fit for the line.
In time, though, things regressed when he was there, especially in January and February. But here’s the bigger issue: Pacioretty hasn’t played since Feb. 8, more than two months from the start of the first round. It’s really hard to miss that much time at any point and catch up again, let alone for the playoffs.
And yet, the more I’ve thought about it, the more I can’t help thinking Berube will be tempted to play him and that he may even be the best option, at least initially.
If the Leafs are going to try with Pacioretty in the playoffs (the whole point of signing him to begin with), they may as well give it a go straight away and see if he can bring anything at all. Is it a lot to ask him to return from a long absence in a top-six role? Absolutely. But if anyone is going to be comfortable in what will inevitably be a raucous Game 1, it’s going to be Pacioretty, who also has a long history of scoring goals in the playoffs — 25 in 78 games. I think he still has the chops to help create a goal or change momentum with his physicality, and Berube can limit his minutes by mixing in others on the line. I also like the idea of the McMann threat elsewhere.
My pick: Pacioretty.
Who plays on the third line?
Domi sticking in the top six would throw yet another wrench into the who-plays-third-line-centre conundrum.
Scott Laughton, the player the Leafs traded to fill that role, no longer appears to be even in consideration. Laughton played four games as the 3C after his trade from Philadelphia and has played none since. He’s been the fourth-line centre of late.
If Domi plays with Nylander and Tavares, Holmberg appears to be the most likely third-line centre for Game 1 — a role he filled at times in last year’s playoffs to limited effect. He had zero points in seven games.
But since I’ve got Pacioretty back in the top six, I’ve got Domi reclaiming the 3C gig with McMann and Robertson on his flanks.
The only third-line combo that’s worked all season, and only sporadically at that, featured McMann on the left, Domi in the middle and Robertson on right wing. It’s been the second-most-used line for the Leafs all season (220 minutes), trailing only that top unit (586).
The underlying numbers for the trio aren’t great, with the Leafs winning just 44 percent of the expected goals, but also 59 percent of the actual goals. There’s a definite fear factor with Domi and Robertson’s combined puck management/defensive/penalty issues.
It’s also the rare third-line concoction that might actually score (and Berube can protect them, somewhat, on home ice).
Domi and Robertson have real chemistry. Robertson has scored 13 five-on-five goals this season, six of them set up by Domi.
Will Berube trust Robertson enough to actually play him, at least off the hop? I’m not sure he will, especially if Pacioretty is available. So it’s possible one of Pacioretty or Järnkrok (or even Laughton) plays here with Domi and McMann instead.
Berube could also scratch Pacioretty initially and give Laughton and Järnkrok a go with Domi, a trio he tested recently that failed pretty resoundingly in limited run.
My picks: Domi between McMann and Robertson
Who plays on the fourth line with Lorentz?
Steven Lorentz is the one lock here, and deservedly so.
Because I’ve got Pacioretty on line two, and McMann, Domi and Robertson on line three, the choice here comes down to two of David Kämpf, Holmberg, Järnkrok and Laughton.
If Kämpf is healthy and available, he’s a sure thing for me in the middle.
He’s had his moments in past playoffs, he can handle the quicksand treatment (a swath of defensive zone faceoffs), and the Leafs need him on the penalty kill, especially as backup to Matthews on PK1. (The Leafs will sometimes have Matthews win the initial short-handed faceoff and hop off for Kämpf when he’s around.)
This leaves one of Holmberg, Järnkrok or Laughton.
Pair Holmberg up with Kämpf and Lorentz and you’ve got a line that can skate and defend, but probably won’t score. In their 64 minutes together during the regular season, the Leafs generated 0.92 expected goals per 60 minutes. It’s the second-worst output of any NHL line that logged at least 60 minutes this season.
Järnkrok is quicker than Laughton and could create a goal with his legs at some point. He’s also scored only five times in 93 playoff games, and only once in 18 games this season.
Drop Laughton in there with Kämpf and Lorentz and the Leafs could have a line that’s a pain to play against, can defend and/or mop up defensive zone faceoffs, and can maybe even score the odd goal.
There’s also a world in which Berube leaves Kämpf on the outside and goes with Lorentz (sure thing), Laughton (sure thing) and one of Holmberg or Järnkrok. The coach seems to have liked what he’s gotten recently from the trio of Lorentz, Laughton and Järnkrok, and with good reason.
I just think Kämpf adds more value than either Holmberg or Järnkrok as a penalty killer and defender.
My picks: Kämpf and Laughton
My ideal Game 1 lineup
Scratches: Pontus Holmberg, Calle Järnkrok, Philippe Myers
— Stats and research courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference
(Top photo of Nick Robertson and Max Pacioretty: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)