DENVER — The Chicago Cubs haven’t conceded yet, but they’re not oblivious, either. Making the playoffs as the National League’s third wild card would require an incredible hot streak plus flops by the teams in front of them. Saturday night’s 6-5 walk-off loss to the Colorado Rockies in the 10th inning left them with only 14 games to erase a six-game deficit that’s essentially seven because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreakers.
Internally, thinking about ways to improve the team is a process that never really stops. The shape of this season — a strong start, two bad months and a determined comeback — shows that the Cubs (75-73) are just good enough to not completely implode while lingering around the fringes of the playoff race. Next year’s roster needs to have a much higher ceiling.
That’s the challenge for Jed Hoyer’s front office and Craig Counsell’s coaching staff. The game is always about pitching and the organization’s developmental pipeline hasn’t been able to keep up with the demand. This look-ahead is based on information from team and league sources.
Adding an established starter will be a priority
The Cubs will explore ways to upgrade their rotation and leverage the team’s pitching infrastructure. That could mean making a long-term commitment to an All-Star such as Max Fried. It could involve offering a big one-year deal to a pitcher looking to prove he’s healthy and reestablish his high-end value, perhaps someone like Walker Buehler.
The Cubs won’t be the early favorites to do a top-of-the-market deal with Scott Boras, but the agent will be working to place Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell on contending teams and a Cy Young Award winner could elevate the entire team. Staying engaged and reading the market last winter allowed the Cubs to sign Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53 million contract that instantly became a great partnership between the Japanese pitcher and the team’s pitching program.
Shōta Imanaga’s 7th K.
Thru 7…and 🤫 pic.twitter.com/etG4JbvdK6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 5, 2024
Jameson Taillon has also met the expectations of his four-year, $68 million contract, proving himself to be a sturdy, dependable pitcher and a positive clubhouse influence. The Cubs wasted another quality start from Taillon in Saturday’s loss as rookie reliever Porter Hodge gave up a score-tying, two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning.
If the Cubs identify another starter with high-level skills, a track record of durability and good composure — traits that define Taillon and Imanaga — they should pursue him with conviction. Ideally, the Cubs would use their cluster of young, talented and largely unproven pitchers — names like Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton — to strengthen their bullpen and provide depth at Triple-A Iowa until the inevitable injuries happen. Successfully navigating a 162-game schedule requires good pitchers with minor-league options.
Justin Steele is on the verge of returning
If the Cubs are considering approaching Justin Steele about a long-term contract extension this winter, it would be reassuring to see him pitch in September. He reported no issues with his left elbow/forearm after Saturday’s bullpen session, which lasted roughly 40 pitches and served as a final checkpoint. As long as he continues to feel pain-free, the plan is to activate him off the injured list soon and start him this week at Wrigley Field.
“That’s just a sigh of relief, a weight off my shoulders,” Steele said. “When you’re pitching, grinding through the season, nobody’s necessarily 100 percent. But when you continue to throw through something and figure out what it was, it gives you some peace of mind.”
Steele, a late bloomer and a homegrown All-Star, is already 29 but he still has three years remaining in the arbitration system. Regardless of the current playoff odds, Counsell has firmly and consistently stated that the Cubs have no plans to shut down Steele: “If he’s healthy, he’s going to pitch. That’s kind of the bottom line.”
“There’s always value to be had with innings being pitched,” Steele said. “Especially showing that you’re healthy towards the end of the season going into the offseason.”
Pencil Javier Assad’s name into next year’s rotation
It’s been established that the Cubs could use a front-line pitcher to take pressure off teammates and prevent a normal losing streak from turning into a two-month spiral. Imanaga, though, is understandably expected to get the Opening Day assignment for next year’s Tokyo Series. Steele and Taillon will then be counted on to make roughly 60 starts combined. In terms of a No. 5 starter who could be significantly better than that, Javier Assad has separated himself from the pack.
“I don’t like making promises that are eight months away because a lot can change,” Counsell said. “But that’s why I say we’ve got two years of Javi Assad doing this.”
Indeed, Assad has put up a 3.27 ERA in 27 starts this season, evolving from a solid swingman into one of the most reliable members of the rotation. He doesn’t do it with elite velocity or swing-and-miss stuff. He didn’t get a lot of hype after signing as a free agent out of Mexico and rising through the farm system. He simply knows how to pitch and handle the moment, earning a strong endorsement from his manager.
“Javi’s always fought (perceptions),” Counsell said. “Even within this organization, he was probably underrated, right? And now maybe it’s outside the organization. He’s always going to have that fight on his hands. I think he’s fine with that. I don’t think it’s going to change what he does. Now we’re looking at two years of 100-plus innings in each season of pretty darn good performance. It’s really pretty hard to argue with what the performance has been. It’s hard to not give him a lot of credit.
“He does it in a way that’s a little different, but that’s his journey and his story. That’s who he is. When you see it on an every-start basis, you come to respect it and understand it. It’s fun to watch. He gets hitters out and he keeps runs off the board. That’s his job.”
(Photo of Justin Steele: Kirk Irwin / Getty Images)
