After four months of football, 18 NFL teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. That means the Super Bowl dream remains alive for just 14 teams. After this weekend, we’ll be down to only eight.
As we do every year, we’re going to examine the reasons why each of the 14 playoff teams will win the Super Bowl and why they won’t. We’ll start with the AFC, where it’s difficult to imagine the conference champion not being one of the top three seeds. According to my NFL Projection Model, the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens rank way ahead of the rest of the field, but as we know, in the NFL, there is always a chance for drama.
Let’s get started:
Current Super Bowl odds: 22.7%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because they always do. I’m kidding. Kind of. The Chiefs are indeed the back-to-back Super Bowl champs, and they’ve won three titles in five years. When Patrick Mahomes is under center, coach Andy Reid is calling plays, and tight end Travis Kelce is finding open holes in zone defenses, they’re going to be a contender to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy every year. Maybe this is lazy analysis on my part, but Mahomes and the Chiefs get it done when it needs to get done better than any team in recent memory. They’re 11-0 in one-score games this year and have won an NFL-record sixteen in a row dating back to last season. Plain and simple, these guys are just winners.
Why they won’t
Because of their inability to generate explosive plays on offense. The Chiefs finished the season ranked dead last in explosive play rate (8.4% with the league average at 11.1%), according to TruMedia. It seems foolish to blame the offense for their eventual downfall, but playing in that many tight games while also having to drive the length of the field methodically over and over again is no small task.
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Current Super Bowl odds: 11%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Since Week 7, the first week wide receiver Amari Cooper suited up for the Bills, Buffalo ranks first in EPA per drive and second, behind only the Detroit Lions, in points per drive. The Bills also happen to be the only team to take down the Chiefs this season … and did it by two scores. Josh Allen is the only quarterback in the same realm as Mahomes, in my opinion, and the way he’s conducting his offense right now makes them the most likely team to get over the Chiefs hump and win the Super Bowl.
Why they won’t
The defense. As good as the offense has been, the defense hasn’t been anywhere near the level you’d want them to be at this point in the season. The Bills defense gave up the highest percentage of plays of 10-plus yards, finished 24th in defensive success rate, while ranking 23rd in pressure rate. The Bills have benefitted from a flurry of turnovers over the back half of the season. If you look at just EPA per play, the Bills rank near league average, but when taking away turnovers, they fall more in line with the bottom five-to-seven teams in the league. I’m not going to bet on a team that has to generate turnovers to get stops on defense, no matter how good the offense is.
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Baltimore Ravens
Current Super Bowl odds: 9.9%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Starting in Week 11, Kyle Hamilton has played at least 19 snaps at free safety in every Ravens game and at least 25 snaps in all but two games according to PFF. In that same span, the Ravens rank first in both EPA per play against the pass and defensive pass success rate. That’s a huge jump from where they were prior — 28th in EPA per play against the pass, 21st in defensive pass success rate — when Hamilton wasn’t playing nearly as much free safety.
Sure, some of their gains have to do with the low quality of opponents they’ve faced, but there is no doubt the Ravens diagnosed a problem on their defense and righted the ship. Considering the state of their elite offense, an average defense would go a long way, and it’s safe to say they’re better than average right now.
Why they won’t
The postseason woes continue for quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Jackson’s career touchdown per attempt percentage is 6.4%. He’s currently leading the NFL this season at 8.6%. That metric in six career playoff games is just 3.1%. His interception rate goes from 1.9% in the regular season to 3.1% in the playoffs. His completion percentage drops eight percentage points. No matter how you cut it, the Ravens haven’t been able to figure out the passing offense in Jackson’s short playoff career. If that trend continues, they won’t have enough firepower to overcome potential road trips to Buffalo and Kansas City.
Current Super Bowl odds: 3.6%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because quarterback Justin Herbert catches fire with rising star wide receiver Ladd McConkey, similar to the 2021 Los Angeles Rams with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp. As I already mentioned, however, the top of the AFC is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. So if the Chargers are going to make a run, they’ll need almost perfect play from their quarterback. Herbert certainly has that ability, and McConkey has ranked as a top-10 wide receiver in the second half of the season by EPA per route and yards per route. I don’t believe the Chargers have the pieces to take down the giants in the AFC, but if it happens, it’s almost certainly going to be on the shoulders of Herbert playing flawless football.
Why they won’t
Because the Chargers haven’t fared well against quality competition this season. They went just 2-5 against teams in the playoffs, and both wins came against the Broncos. This was supposed to be a transition year for coach Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers, and making the playoffs is certainly a feat to be proud of, but this team just isn’t quite there from a talent standpoint to be considered a true contender.
Current Super Bowl odds: 1.6%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
The offense somehow finds their 2023 rhythm after a disastrous 2024 campaign. Last season, the Texans rolled into the playoffs with an explosive passing offense that never reappeared this season. In fact, QB C.J. Stroud’s passing numbers would make you believe he’s been one of the worse quarterbacks in the league this year considering his bottom-seven dropback success rate that only ranks ahead of Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones. But if they can get back to their explosive ways of 2023, the Texans can make a run.
Why they won’t
Because as much as we want to put blame on the quarterback, the offensive line is one of the league’s worst. When looking at blown blocks in the running game and pressures allowed in the passing game, no offensive line has “blown” a block as often as the Texans at 28.5% of plays according to FTN Data. The next worst team is the New England Patriots at 26.0%. So, it’s not debatable which offensive line is the worst in the league right now. When it comes to postseason success, trench play is paramount, and right now, the Texans aren’t good enough.
Denver Broncos
Current Super Bowl odds: 0.9%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Anyone getting 2015 vibes from the Broncos? An elite defense with an offense that tends to do just enough? Well, the defense is doing their best to carry this team to the Super Bowl. The Broncos rank first in EPA per play, first in defensive success rate, first in sack rate and second in pressure rate. For comparison, the 2015 Broncos’ defense ranked first in EPA per play and sack rate but second in defensive success rate. They’re also first in EPA per play against the rush and third against the pass. If the Broncos are going to end up on top with a rookie quarterback, they’re going to need their defense to be elite across the board for the next four games. It’s certainly possible.
Why they won’t
Despite delivering a solid rookie campaign, Bo Nix wasn’t even an average quarterback this season. Nix ranked 21st in EPA per dropback and 27th in dropback success rate among qualified quarterbacks — at least when filtering out the Week 18 game against a Chiefs team that didn’t play any of its starters. And that’s not a knock on Nix, it’s just really difficult for rookie QBs to enjoy playoff success in the NFL.
Current Super Bowl odds: 0.4%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because QB Russell Wilson and WR George Pickens have brought an explosive element that the Steelers have been lacking for years. Pickens has been banged up over the past few weeks of the season, but he and Wilson started off their tenure together in impressive fashion. Pickens’ first four games with Wilson yielded a yards per route of at least 2.0, while he only produced two such games in the in six starts with Justin Fields. If the dominant version of Pickens shows up for Pittsburgh this postseason, it wouldn’t be crazy to see them win a few games.
Why they won’t
The Steelers played a much tougher second-half schedule, and the defense hasn’t held up — at least not to their typical standard. The unit ranks around average in just about every metric you can find, and that’s not going to be good enough considering the ceiling of their offense isn’t very high. They’ve dealt with some injuries, especially at edge rusher, but this team is built around the idea of having an elite defense, and they’ve proven these past couple of months that they don’t actually have one.
(Photo of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
