RALEIGH, N.C. — The Carolina Hurricanes’ 6-3 loss to Toronto on Saturday started a stretch of 26 games in 55 days until the end of the regular season, a run that will include the March 7 trade deadline — which shockingly is under two weeks away.
While the NHL was paused for the 4 Nations Face-Off, I collected a bunch of your questions for my latest mailbag. Let’s dive in. (Some questions have been lightly edited for style and clarity.)
What are your feelings on the possibility of re-signing Mikko Rantanen? — Curtis L. (and everyone else)
To say this one has been on everyone’s mind is an understatement.
The Hurricanes pulled off perhaps the most shocking trade of the last decade when they acquired Rantanen and Taylor Hall in the Jan. 24 three-team trade that shipped out Martin Necas, Jack Drury and some draft picks.
Rantanen, who has back-to-back 100-point seasons and also played at that pace the two seasons prior, had just two points in six games with Carolina before the 4 Nations break, missing the last game due to injury. He had one assist on Saturday vs. Toronto.
That’s understandably caused some panic among the fan base. Many are worried about the prospects of re-signing the pending unrestricted free agent, while others decry coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system for allegedly not allowing star players to shine.
That’s also led to speculation that Carolina could already be looking for an out and is open to flipping Rantanen in a trade rather than losing him for nothing.
First, let’s all take a deep breath.
OK, good.
First of all, all signs — other than the actual point totals — point to Rantanen’s play being just fine. Everyone has glorious memories of Carolina acquiring Doug Weight in late January 2006, but he also didn’t get his first point until his sixth game and had one assist through 10 games with the Hurricanes before registering a combined three goals and six points in his next six.
Mark Recchi from that same year? He went without a point for eight games before gaining his footing, and even then, he had a modest four goals and seven points in the final 12 games of the regular season.
These things can take time, though it’s likely tough for fans to see Necas (four goals, nine points) and Drury (two goals) doing well through eight games in Colorado.
The points will come.
They might not, however, come as easily as they did when Rantanen played alongside Nathan MacKinnon, which has plenty concerned that the 28-year-old Finn might — like Jake Guentzel before him — leave Carolina at the altar and make the team a candidate to be featured in a “Runaway Bride” sequel.
That also has the sharks circling, leading to speculation that the Hurricanes might be open to trading Rantanen before the deadline.
So what’s going on?
For one, GM Eric Tulsky has said publicly that the franchise’s focus is on re-signing Rantanen. That sounds like the right thing to say, but everything points to that being the truth: Carolina isn’t shopping Rantanen and isn’t discouraged with progress in talks. Like the on-ice stuff, these things take time.
That hasn’t prevented a lot of noise from a lot of corners in the hockey world — some reputable, some not so much.
If there’s a lesson to be learned in the Guentzel negotiations, it’s that teams have ways of getting the attention of other teams’ players without directly tampering. While I wouldn’t think there are general managers at this juncture indirectly reaching out to Rantanen’s camp to gauge his interest in coming to their team, there are also ways to rock the boat. It wouldn’t be hard for other teams to get word out that, true or not, the Hurricanes are having difficulty in talks with Rantanen to try and destabilize negotiations and then pounce on him.
Is it impossible that the Hurricanes would trade away Rantanen before the deadline? No, nothing is impossible. But the team is also loaded with cap space and is willing to make him easily the highest-paid player in franchise history.
Cory, what’s the sweet spot number for you to get Rants signed here? I think it’s eight years at $12.5 million per year to hit that $100 million number. — Rob G.
Here’s the second part of the equation. First, let’s look at Carolina’s cap situation.
In December, James Mirtle wrote that no team had better positioned itself as it relates to the salary cap. The big jump in next year’s salary cap — from $88 million this season to $95.5 million next season — actually hurts the Hurricanes some because it gives other teams flexibility they wouldn’t otherwise have.
Still, Carolina is in an envious situation. More than $13 million will come off the books with Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov both on expiring contracts, and the Hurricanes should have both Alexander Nikishin and Scott Morrow in the wings to fill those spots on entry-level deals.
Up front, the Hurricanes will look to re-sign Eric Robinson — who’s proven to be a great fit — and can play wait and see with the rest. Jesper Fast’s deal will be up, and should Taylor Hall or Jack Roslovic prove themselves worthy of extensions, Carolina can explore it. If not, the $11.2 million those three cost against the cap this year can go to replacements. And, like on defense, there are a couple of young players — particularly Bradly Nadeau and Felix Unger Sorum — who could nab a spot.
The Hurricanes will need to decide who will share the net with Pyotr Kochetkov going forward, but Tulsky and Co. have more than enough money to do that and to give Rantanen a monster deal.
The one thing Carolina can offer Rantanen that no one else can is an eighth year on an extension. I think Leon Draisaitl’s extension with the Oilers — eight years, $14 million AAV — is a good benchmark, though I’d expect the Hurricanes to want to come in under that.
I’ll take an uninformed stab at it and say the sweet spot is eight years, $106 million — a $13.25 million AAV. We know, however, that Carolina can get creative with their contracts.
As a major fan of Rod Brind’Amour, I always worry that if the Hurricanes can’t get over the hump in the next couple years, they will move on from him. Do you get the sense that management/ownership will support Rod through anything, or is there a legit chance he could get replaced if this team does not get over the hump soon? —Jarret H.
Before the 4 Nations break, I asked Brind’Amour what he planned to do with his time, since there would be more than a week without games and practices.
“Spend some time with my little guy, which is nice,” he said. “You know, this job, there’s that trade-off where you miss a lot. That’s always been the thing with me. So I’ll get to watch him play, which will be nice, and then hopefully come back refreshed.”
Brind’Amour has three grown children — including Hurricanes prospect Skyler — along with his youngest, teenager Brooks, from his current marriage. I believe Brind’Amour will have this job for as long as he wants it, and if he was going to step away for family reasons (ie. to coach Brooks’ team or something of that ilk) he would have already done it.
Do I think Brind’Amour will still be behind the bench in 20 years? No, but I get the sense that he has unfinished business as a coach.
The Canes need a 2C (with term). That will likely only be possible through a trade to maximize their next (extended) Cup window. With the Canes’ cap flexibility, crop of talented prospects and draft picks, does a trade make sense, and is it likely? — Tyler T.
The Hurricanes are always looking for ways to improve. Their mantra, I’d say, is “be in on everything.” That’s why you’ve heard Carolina mentioned in past trade talks surrounding Matthew Tkachuk, Timo Meier, Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and more.
All that said, the team still believes in Jesperi Kotkaniemi. His five-on-five points per 60 are better than Mark Scheifele, Dylan Strome, Jack Hughes and William Nylander, to name a handful.
Furthermore, his sub-$5 million contract through 2030 is going to look increasingly good as the cap explodes. When the Hurricanes signed Kotkaniemi to his extension in March 2022, the contract — which kicked in for the 2022-23 season — represented 5.84 percent of the total cap. When the cap is at $95.5 million next season, his $4.82 million will be down to 5.04 percent. If the cap ceiling is indeed the projected $113.5 million in 2027-28, that percentage will be down to 4.25 percent.
A contract at 4.25 percent this season, with an $88 million cap, would be $3.74 million. Even if Kotkaniemi never rises to elite No. 2 center, he’ll be worth that contract. But yes, I think Carolina will always keep an eye out for upgrades.
We just saw Team USA ride Jaccob Slavin for 25-plus minutes and shut down Canada. Do you expect to see RBA do that a lot more this playoffs without the Skjei-Pesce pair, and Burns slowing down? I feel like we’d benefit from Slavin playing close to 30 minutes pergame. — Jake Gibson
I thought Slavin was the best player in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and I’m not alone. He played nearly perfect games — paired with Minnesota’s Brock Faber — in the two matchups with Canada, and I think he solidified his status as the top defensive defenseman in hockey.
And people noticed. The broadcast correctly raved about Slavin’s ability to shut down the best players in the world.
“That’s all they were talking about, which is great,” Brind’Amour said after Friday’s practice. “It’s great for him because he kind of goes under the radar maybe — not here, but just in general. So I thought it was good observations by everyone, and he obviously played well, so it was warranted.”
Aho said Slavin stood him up on the blue line early in the Canada-Finland game, forcing an offside.
“Our eyes locked, and we were like — it was kind of a weird moment,” he said. “But after that, it’s all business. … Everyone knows here how good he is. And obviously now, probably a little bit bigger platform than everyone sees him.
“Best on best, and he did a pretty damn good job shutting those guys down. He’s an unbelievable D-man, and we’re so lucky to have him.”
Rantanen said of the championship game, “I watched the game (Thursday) night, and he was probably the best D-man out there in both teams.”
Now that we’re through the accolades, let me answer your question.
Brind’Amour has never really leaned on a defenseman for major minutes. Only 14 times has a Carolina defenseman played more than 27 minutes — Zach Werenski is averaging just a touch under 27 minutes per game this year — in a regular-season game since the start of the 2018-19 season, 10 times by Slavin.
Comparatively, it happened 14 times in three years under Bill Peters (nine times by Justin Faulk, four by Slavin and once by Andrej Sekera).
In the playoffs (not counting overtime games), Brind’Amour played a defenseman 27-plus minutes seven times and 25-plus minutes 24 times in 74 games.
I wouldn’t expect Brind’amour to lean on Slavin too much down the stretch, but once the postseason rolls around, I could see the coach calling on No. 74 more frequently.
(Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
