It’s NFL Draft day, so here’s my mock draft for the top six picks (they only pay me to cover the New York Giants, so someone else can worry about the rest of the first round):
1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams
This is like a No. 1 seed beating a No. 16 in the noon game on the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Everyone’s bracket will remain perfect after the first pick.
2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
Any hurt feelings about the Topgolf visit will be forgiven when Daniels gets picked second.
3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye
This is where the intrigue starts. If the Patriots were completely in love with Maye, they likely wouldn’t be so open to listening to trade offers. And with arguably the worst roster in the league, they should be considering loading up on picks. But 82-year-old owner Robert Kraft likely wants a quarterback to get the franchise back on track sooner than later.
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4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort showed in his first draft he’s willing to wheel and deal. He’d be a natural trade partner for the Giants if they’re motivated to move up from No. 6, which would likely be the case if Maye is available. But the Cardinals have a league-high 11 picks, including two first-rounders and five picks in the top 71, so moving back to acquire more picks shouldn’t be a top priority when they can stay at No. 4 and land the best non-quarterback in the draft.
5. Minnesota Vikings (trade): QB J.J. McCarthy
I can’t see Harrison slipping past No. 5. If the Cardinals pass, the Chargers or a team trading up will take him. If Harrison is gone and McCarthy is available, this could be where the Vikings pounce. It makes sense for the Chargers to stockpile picks since they have so many holes. They’d pass on Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt at No. 5, but there will be quality tackles available with the 11th pick they’d acquire from Minnesota in this deal.
6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers
I expect the Giants to pursue a trade up to the third pick for Maye. If the Patriots don’t bite, the most interesting scenario at No. 6 would be if McCarthy and Nabers are both available. I don’t believe the Giants love McCarthy as much as Maye, but if they’re resolute on finding Daniel Jones’ successor in this draft, they could take the Michigan quarterback. They don’t have that option in this mock, so they take Nabers, who fits coach Brian Daboll’s offense and will make an immediate impact for a regime that would be on shaky ground with another rough season.
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QB early or not at all
I retired from scouting after I scoffed at the notion of the Giants trading up for Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft and had Josh Rosen as my top quarterback in the 2018 class. So I won’t criticize whatever pick the Giants make Thursday night. The truth is no one knows how these players will pan out, including the people making the picks.
That said, I do have some process-based draft opinions. For instance, I’m opposed to taking a quarterback QB later in this draft. It doesn’t make sense to draft a QB who doesn’t project as a possible franchise quarterback in the Giants’ current situation. They have a perfectly mediocre quarterback room with Jones, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. They need a game-changer, not another potential low-end starter/backup.
I’m typically a proponent of trading back, but I’d be opposed to moving back from No. 6 unless a team offers a monster haul. The Giants are in a position to acquire an elite prospect at a premium position with the sixth pick. This team needs depth, but it also needs game-changing talent. The latter is harder to procure.
If the Giants don’t take a quarterback at No. 6, they can land a prospect expected to be a No. 1 wide receiver. A No. 1 wide receiver on a rookie deal is a valuable commodity when considering a player like Calvin Ridley just fetched a four-year, $92 million contract on the open market. If the Giants do trade back, they should target 2025 assets when they’ll need ammo to potentially move up for a quarterback.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen floated the possibility of trading back during his pre-draft news conference last week, mentioning unprompted how surprised he had been by the interest from teams in moving up to No. 6.
It’s difficult to identify teams interested in trading up to No. 6, especially if the top four QBs are off the board. It’s possible the Bears or Jets could be motivated to move up from No. 9 and No. 10, respectively, for a wide receiver. Neither team has a second-round pick this year, which would be reasonable compensation to move up, but again, the Giants could prioritize 2025 assets.
The Giants haven’t spent much time with prospects projected to be picked in the middle of the first round. So if Schoen is preparing for a trade back, he likely would be open to moving back only a few spots.
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High stakes
If the Giants trade up, including a 2025 first-round pick shouldn’t be done without serious consideration. The Giants’ win total over/under was set at 6.5 by BetMGM. Only three teams — Carolina (4.5), New England (5.5) and Denver (5.5) — have a lower over/under.
Such an early projection isn’t necessarily a predictive measure, but it gives a sense of the expectations for the Giants’ season. Parting with a potential top-five pick would raise the stakes if the Giants include their 2025 first-rounder to trade up for a quarterback.
Hmm, mentioning SIX prospects is an interesting number. Really feels likes it’s either the Patriots or Giants picking at No. 3. Allowing a team trading back to still land a top prospect with the sixth pick gives the Giants a major trump card against any competitors https://t.co/kxCep4fVyS
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) April 25, 2024
Job security a looming factor
If the Giants don’t draft a quarterback in the first round, Schoen and Daboll will likely need to present ownership a two-year plan for the position. Because another rough season with Jones as the starting QB will erase any goodwill remaining from the successful 2022 season.
In some ways, passing on a quarterback could be the best move if Schoen and Daboll are focused on self-preservation. Using their first-round pick on a passer who may not play as a rookie obviously wouldn’t help the on-field product this season. Meanwhile, a player like Nabers could make an immediate impact to help spur a bounce-back season.
But there’s a case to be made that taking a quarterback in the first round would be the best move for job security. A poor record this season would be more palatable if ownership felt confident the new franchise quarterback was already on the roster. It would be even more beneficial for Daboll if the young quarterback shows promise in whatever action he gets this season, although Jones’ impressive flashes as a rookie didn’t save coach Pat Shurmur from getting fired after the 2019 season.
Tampering talk
The NFL’s review of the Eagles’ alleged tampering with running back Saquon Barkley reportedly won’t be resolved this week. There was an expectation a resolution could happen this week since the Cardinals’ tampering with then-Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon resulted in a third-round pick swap and Philadelphia sending a 2024 fifth-round pick to Arizona just before last year’s draft started.
Even if the Eagles are found guilty of contacting Barkley directly at a time when such communication wasn’t allowed, it’s unlikely the Giants will receive draft pick compensation based on the league’s past tampering penalties. But the Eagles could forfeit a pick in the 2025 draft if the league finds they had illegal communication with Barkley.
It will be interesting to see if there are any changes to wide receiver Darius Slayton’s status during — or immediately following — the draft. The veteran is skipping the voluntary offseason program because he wants a new contract. Schoen doesn’t sound like he’s interested in negotiating a new deal one year into the two-year, $12 million contract Slayton signed last offseason.
Any leverage Slayton has will evaporate if the Giants take a wide receiver with the sixth pick. His quest for a new contract from the Giants could morph into a trade request if that happens. Conversely, Slayton’s value will increase if the Giants take a quarterback in the first round, and he may dig in deeper on his demand for a new contract.
Return on investment
The Giants seem stocked with returner options, which hasn’t been the case in recent years. They have wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, who excelled as a punt returner after being signed midway through last season, and wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, who has been a kickoff and punt returner throughout his career, including in Buffalo with Schoen and Daboll.
Still, Schoen indicated last week he could be looking at wide receivers with return ability later in the draft now that the kickoff return is again a big part of the game.
“Some added value with guys, the new kickoff rules, the guys that can also do returns,” Schoen said. “I think there’s an added element there, too, and there’s some receivers that can wear multiple hats, not just as a receiver but also as a returner.”
UDFA outlook
The Giants have 75 players on their roster entering the draft. With six draft picks, that leaves nine open roster spots to sign undrafted free agents.
The Giants signed nine undrafted free agents last year and 13 undrafted free agents in 2022. The most notable UDFA signing of the past two years is DeVito, who went 3-3 in six starts last season.
This year’s undrafted class will likely be thin since the depth of the draft has been weakened by more prospects than usual returning to school. There are typically a few veterans at the bottom of the roster cut after the draft to open roster spots for UDFAs or rookie minicamp tryouts.
The Giants also may need a roster spot or two for a veteran after signings stop counting toward the compensatory pick formula next Monday.
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(Photo of Drake Maye: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
