The tradewinds are blowing around the NFL as the draft is now just hours away. The only force stronger is the lies.
Everyone looks to manipulate the board as rumors circulate about what might or might not happen in Round 1 on Thursday night.
Despite an ESPN report contending the Cincinnati Bengals could be looking to trade up for one of the top tackles, there’s no way around the reality of who they are as a personnel department and organization.
Not since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995 have the Bengals traded up in the first round.
These are the facts of the case and they are undisputed.
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Yes, the Bengals possess extra picks (10 in total), but the reality is Cincinnati will be far more willing to move back rather than even look in the direction of a trade up the board in Round 1.
There are enough quality players at positions that fit their current roster to feel confident they’ll end up with a player high on their list without moving.
The Bengals have three picks between 80 and 115, thanks to a revised decision involving compensatory picks earlier this offseason. They also can recoup one of those lost with five selections in the final three rounds.
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“It is good to have that extra third-round pick we have this year as hopefully getting another starter,” college scouting director Mike Potts said. “We can use it as ammo to potentially trade up. We could explore trading back. It gives you a lot of different flexibility.”
Even though the move was minor in the big picture, the Bengals did move up three spots from 63 to 60 for Cam Taylor-Britt in 2022. That served as a glimpse of a slight willingness to sacrifice picks for the last targeted player at a positional need. It is the only time they have even moved up in the second round this century, but the success of it made an impact.
“In terms of being able to do the research before the draft and get everything in line, we did a great job that year knowing the entire landscape of that entire position at the cornerback group,” senior personnel executive Trey Brown said. “We targeted a player and felt, ah, there might be some risk with this guy getting drafted before we are on the clock here and we showed some aggressiveness going up to get him.”
Willingness to trade up will be reserved for Friday night. Inevitably, Thursday the club will be tracking how fast the trenches come off the board in the top 17 picks. Any selection who doesn’t play with his hand in the ground will be good news for the Bengals to land one of the top-tier targets. Could a fifth quarterback end up off early? The desperate situations of the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings help push another pick down the board. Same with the top corners.
When Washington receiver Rome Odunze is selected will be a turning point as well. If he goes early, that leaves an opportunity for teams to trade up ahead of Cincinnati to go after LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. or whomever they view as the next top receiver. The Kansas City Chiefs (32nd) and Buffalo Bills (28th) need receivers and have histories of trading up early in the draft.
Would the Bengals be willing to go that far back?
A more likely scenario with legs is tracking the consistently aggressive Philadelphia Eagles’ feeling a need to move up from 22 as they hunt a top cornerback and tackle. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has moved up in the first round in the last three drafts. Cincinnati would have to slide behind the offensive-line-needy Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins, but adding another top-100 pick or moving up in a pick swap on Day 2 would be alluring. Similarly, a swap back six spots with the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for pick No. 87 would make sense if a decent grouping of prospects were there.
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After all, the tradewinds are blowing hard this year. Just in Cincinnati, you can count on them only blowing in one direction.
All this talk typically ends up being just that with Cincinnati in Round 1. It has stood pat and made its pick for 11 consecutive seasons.
Working the edges
Did Trey Hendrickson’s latest contract unhappiness push the edge rusher position up the board as a priority for Cincinnati?
Probably not.
It feels quite comfortable there and has zero expectations of shipping Hendrickson anywhere. Toss Hendrickson’s plea in the bucket with Jessie Bates III, Jonah Williams and Tee Higgins, all players with nowhere to go but to the starting lineup on opening day.
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Nobody believes for a second Hendrickson would retire, as was suggested by his agent to The Cincinnati Enquirer. Would Hendrickson so badly need a raise he’d be willing to leave $31 million in cash over the next two seasons on the table? Make it make sense.
Meanwhile, Sam Hubbard discussed his ankle surgery (the first operation of his life!) this week. He’s ahead of schedule on the tightrope procedure on the deltoid ligament in his ankle. It hindered him last year, but the Bengals believe they will get the best of Hubbard again in 2024. Expectations are his role will change slightly, with an opportunity to either kick inside more in certain situations or find more snaps off as the game unfolds. That’s because Myles Murphy is prepping to step into the first-round spotlight. He spent much of his training this offseason developing the same muscle memory and efficiency on the right side as the left so he can be interchangeable for Hubbard and Hendrickson. Optimism also has surrounded 2021 third-round pick Joseph Ossai’s finally living up to expectations this year.
There are variables with each player. But as a collective group of four there’s more than enough confidence that suggests the idea of an edge rusher in the first round for a second consecutive season would be a long shot.
Focus on culture
Keep an eye out for a draft focused on culture builders. There might not be concern about the endgame with Higgins and Hendrickson, but when coupled with the loss of longtime captain and cornerstones DJ Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, Joe Mixon, Jonah Williams and Tyler Boyd, this was already going to be a chore reinstalling the chemistry that fueled success in the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
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Players are being looked at to step into those roles, but there’s a focus on hammering home players who check all the football character boxes and scheme-fit playmakers. But this year, as much as any, that might be non-negotiable.
The good news has been, in their eyes, the continuity between personnel staff and coaching staff that will be entering a sixth consecutive draft in a nearly identical structure makes it easy to spot what they are — and aren’t — looking for.
“One advantage we have is all of our scouts live here, and we’re on the same page with our coaching staff,” Potts said. “I mean, we’re having constant day-to-day conversations, so I think in the makeup of the player, in the scheme in terms of what we’re looking for, we’re really on the same page, and that’s evolved over (Zac Taylor’s) time here, you know, that the six years that it’s been. So I think that’s an advantage that we have and we really used it as an advantage.”
(Photo: Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
